After a strong week of CFB, things are back on track. I was burned late by the Patriots to cover 21.5 against the Jets due to a pick 6. But all in all, 3-1 in College and 2-2 in NFL. Here is a look at where to go for week 5. I of course, open with CFB. There are a few games this week that should put some money in your pockets!
BYU @ Toledo OVER 60.5
Toledo’s offense should help push this over. BYU struggles to defend the run. While this O/U may scare some away, the fact these two don’t play each other much should help this go over.
Washington (-10.5) vs USC
The Huskies come into this game looking to improve on their 3-7 record against USC in their last 10. Matt Fink who helped USC overcome Utah last week, will have a hard time against a good Huskies team, who should have no problem at home. Jacob Eason makes a statement in this one. Take the Huskies.
Virginia (+10.5) @ Notre Dame
This spread seems a bit lopsided. Virginia is 13-3 in their last 16 games against opponents with winning records, when it comes to covering the spread. Bryce Perkins should have a solid game and their defense should make Ian Book force the issue, which didn’t work well against Georgia last week. Virginia is a good team and 2 scores is too much. Take the points.
NC State (+6.5) @ Florida State
This game is going to be a ground and pound style game in my opinion. NC State averages above 200 yards per game and Florida State gives up on average 170. The Wolfpack are also 2-1 in as many contests against FSU, who is struggling to be who they think they are in recent years. FSU needs to win this game in the air, but the Wolfpack have a good secondary as well. This is a sucker bet, but one I love this week. Take NC State getting a near touchdown.
Season Record 9-8
Houston (-4) vs Carolina
Carolina received a great start from Kyle Allen. However, that was against the Arizona Cardinals. This week the Panthers travel to Houston. These teams are evenly matched offensively (20.5 ppg avg) and are consistent in time of possession. Allen starting on the road in a hostile environment leans heavily towards Houston. Deshaun Watson will make more plays to get this to cover
Miami (+15.5) vs Chargers
I am officially crazy. The Dolphins have lost by an average of 38 points per game. Why do I like them here? The Chargers struggle in Miami. They struggle against the Dolphins in general. 3-7 in their previous 10 games. Losing their last 3. Dolphins have made some improvement and I think they will be able to move the ball better this week and actually score some touchdowns. This is a risk but I love the big spread again.
NY Giants (-3) vs Washington
Daniels Jones is the new savior in New York after the comeback win last week. They will need him to win this game again as there will be no Saquon Barkley. If you watched the Redskins last Monday, if Case Keenum is still the QB, the Giants should pull away early. The Redskins struggle running the ball and they turn it over. Big home win for big Blue.
Denver vs Jacksonville UNDER 38
If the weather forecast holds up, we may be seeing significant snow fall at Mile High. Both offenses average under 20 points per game and I firmly believe that Minshew will struggle against a difficult Vic Fangio coached defense. The under makes too much sense
Season Record 7-6