It is currently peak smoke-screen season in the NFL. Rumors about potential trades, free agent links, and potential draft scenarios are swirling around the league and it’s only going to continue until the NFL Draft on April 23.
Does Joe Burrow want to be a Bengal? Are the Lions comfortable with Stafford moving forward? How healthy is Tua? Will Miami have to move up from 5th overall to get Tua? What about all teams like the Chargers, Panthers, or Raiders – are they eyeing their next franchise QB’s?
It can be tough to decipher what’s real and what’s nothing more than smoke.
— DolphinsTalk.com (@DolphinsTalk) February 6, 2020
For now, let’s focus on this question and what it means for the Miami Dolphins: How much is too much when trying to move up to select Tua?
At this time, it seems that the first two selections of the draft are all but decided. Barring a shocking development, Burrow will go to Cincinnati first overall, and Washington appears to be sold on grabbing Chase Young in the two spot. That brings us to the Lions who hold the third overall pick. Some have suggested that they could try to trade Matthew Stafford and select a player like Tua. Though, with Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn both in the last years of their deals I find it hard to believe that they would make such a transformative move. I believe Detroit trading back is the most likely scenario, but how much would they ask from Miami who is only two picks behind them?
Let’s get this out of the way first. I know much of the Dolphins’ fan base is split on taking the former Heisman winner out of Alabama, but it seems inevitable. Miami and Tua have been on a collision course for months now. There was the “Tank for Tua” ensemble that was played out over the first few weeks of the 2019 season. Then there was Tua’s injury, which occurred around the same time that Miami realized they were going to outperform the first overall pick. Tua and his family have been pretty open about their admiration of Miami since he declared for the NFL, too.
Whether you like it or not, this is probably going to be the guy, and he’s probably not going to fall into the Dolphins’ lap at 5. There has been plenty of speculation around teams such as the Chargers, Raiders, and Panthers and the possibility that they may be willing to move up for a signal caller. ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells said on Thursday that Indianapolis has also expressed interest in drafting Tua. Miami is going to have to move if they want him.
So, where should Chris Grier and Brian Flores draw the line when it comes to the cost of moving up?
One rumored package would look like this:
Miami Receives: 2020 3rd overall pick, 2021 4th round pick.
Detroit Receives: 2020 5th overall pick, 2020 39th overall pick, 2021 2nd round pick, 2021 4th round pick.
This deal should be about the max for Grier and Flores. In this scenario Miami retains 3 first round picks in 2020, as well as both of their first rounders in 2021. Miami has more draft capital and ammo than any other squad, so there’s not an offer that they won’t be able to match. The Lions surely understand this, and there’s no doubt that they’ll be fielding offers and relaying them to the Dolphins as they work to up the ante. If the above trade were the one that was executed, Dolphins’ fans should be thrilled. A franchise QB, plus the most valuable draft resources remain with the Dolphins. Grier and Flores could even explore moving back from either 18 or 26 to collect extra picks.
Maybe you’re concerned about Tua and his health, which is 100% fair, but you should get comfortable with the idea. If this is Miami’s guy, then they’re going to need to move for him, and that’s perfectly OK. You can’t hit a homerun if you don’t swing the bat.