The Miami Dolphins 2020 NFL draft has become a hot topic around the league, especially amongst the Miami Dolphins fanbase worldwide. The primary discussions and arguments between the Dolphins’ faithful revolve around the potential drafting of Alabama Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Similar to the most recent United States presidential election, sides have been taken. You probably either want Tua on the Dolphins roster or you don’t. And, as the majority of Dolphins fans are “for” Tua, if you don’t believe he should be a member of your beloved Fins, you can be ganged up on, called names, and sometimes blocked, muted, or unfollowed on social media.

So, you are likely reading this column because you are either in total agreement with the title of the piece, or you are so mad that anyone could possibly dare to think Tua does not belong on the Dolphins, you are already figuring out ways to criticize the column, before even reading it.

Let me disclose the fact that I am not a professional NFL analyst, nor do I play one on television. I am a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan who, like many of you, only want to see what’s best for the team. However, opinions about how the Dolphins become a great team, and which players the Dolphins should select, will widely differ. As this is my opinion, I don’t expect to change anyone else’s opinion, but instead state a case as to why the minority of fans do not want to take the gamble on Tua.

First, prior to his injury, almost all Miami Dolphins fans would agree that Tua was a great college quarterback. He threw for 87 touchdowns and 11 interceptions during his three years with Alabama. Although he did not win the Heisman trophy, it would be wrong to say that he didn’t have talent. He had great leadership, decision making, and throwing skills while leading one of the best football teams in college. Up until Tua’s injury, the ongoing argument was if Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa would be the first player selected in the 2020 NFL draft.

But then, on November 16th, Tua experienced a hip injury that threatened not only his football career, but also his ability to walk and live a normal life. This is when opinions started to change, and that’s when I first felt that the Dolphins drafting Tua would not be the right move for the team.

The injury suffered by Tua was a dislocated hip and a fracture to the posterior wall after being tackled by two defenders. The injury was so severe that he could not put pressure on his right leg. Immediately after, he had to be airlifted to a Birmingham, Alabama hospital for treatment and tests. Shortly after the injury, Dr. Louis Levitt, who serves as Vice President and Secretary for The Centers for Advanced Orthopedics in Washington D.C., stated “It takes enormous force to dislocate a hip in a young player like this. This is usually automobile accidents driving the leg into the socket and then out of the socket.” Based on Dr. Levitt’s words, it is evident that Tua experienced a severe traumatic injury.

What we know is, fortunately for Tua, all medical personnel have stated that the numerous surgeries have gone well, and his prognosis is “excellent” with a full recovery expected. In fact, he should receive full medical clearance on March 9th to begin football related activities again.

However, what we don’t know is how this traumatic injury will affect his ability to perform at the level prior to sustaining the injury. I think it would be naïve to say he will be the same quarterback he was in college, but I also think it would be naïve to say he won’t be able to play at a high level. That’s part of the gamble.

There are not many cases of NFL players who have experienced similar injuries to the one that Tua experienced. 28-year-old Bo Jackson’s football career ended during a playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals in 1991. The injury he suffered was an identical injury suffered by Tua. Jackson was at the height of his career; however, surgical/medicine advancements have improved significantly since his injury almost 30 years ago.

Also, at the beginning of the 2000 season, 30-year-old Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver Lamar Thomas was injured as he was tackled by several Green Bay Packers defenders. He had to be rushed to a hospital to address the hip fracture he experienced. He was diagnosed with a hip dislocation and hip fracture. He was forced to retire with the injuries he sustained.

Additionally, in 2014, only seven years ago, at 29 years old, Baltimore Ravens Tight End Dennis Pitta experienced a dislocated hip during preseason OTA’s. Although the injury was not as severe as Tua’s injury, there were similarities. Pitta missed the 2014 season and was told by doctors in 2015 that it was not safe for him to continue his career. After missing the 2015 season, during the 2016 season, Pitta had the best season of his career with 86 catches of 729 yards and two touchdowns. But he then suffered a career ending dislocated hip during the 2017 preseason, which was the third of his career. Medicine had been improved through the years, but not enough could be done to consistently keep Pitta on the field once he sustained the first hip injury.

Unfortunately, no NFL football player has been able to sustain a prolonged career after experiencing a hip fracture or dislocation. History has shown that these types of injuries have prolonged negative effects on NFL players’ bodies, and there has not yet been one case of an NFL player experiencing this type of injury and continuing to play a long, healthy career. That’s part of the gamble.

When making the decision on whether to draft Tua or not, the Miami Dolphins need to run two scenarios. If the Dolphins select Tua with the number 5 pick, he will most likely have to sit out the 2020 season, which is probably what any team would do with Tua during his first season.

There is a chance that Tua starts playing during the 2021 season and he will play at the level he was playing prior to the injury. Dolphins nation would be ecstatic, and the future would be bright for the franchise.

But there is also a chance that Tua starts playing during the 2021 season, and he has lingering physical or psychological effects from the traumatic experience he had in college. If that’s the case, the Dolphins not only will have missed out on possibly drafting an active quarterback in 2020, but also they would  be out of the quarterback search during the 2021 season. The risk is great.

We know that Tua is going to most likely get a clean bill of health from his doctors during the next few weeks, but nobody can say for certain how Tua is going to perform once he is back on a football field, with pads on, being chased by 350-pound linemen. We have seen NFL players come back from ACL, MCL, and other major injuries, but never a severe hip injury. Could Tua be thinking about his injury every time players are chasing after him, or when he’s being tackled? I would be. And, as a fan, would you be holding your breath every time he is under a pile of defenders, hoping that he is able to avoid additional injury? I would be.

In closing, my recommendation would be that the Miami Dolphins choose a safer path than drafting Tua Tagovailoa. Quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, and Jordan Love each have their own strengths and areas of opportunity. But what they do not have on their resume is a traumatic injury. And, drafting a quarterback during the upcoming draft is not an option, but a necessity. The Miami Dolphins coaching and scouting team will have to ultimately decide which quarterback will be the right fit for the team and choose what is best for the long term.

With the 2020 NFL draft taking place in Las Vegas, the gambling capital of the world, will the Miami Dolphins gamble by taking Tua during the first round of the draft? With no certainty how Tua will perform after the injury, I hope not! Tua is a gamble not worth taking.

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