Week 1 – Dolphins at Patriots Preview
The Miami Dolphins in Week 1 will begin the 2020 Season right where they left off in the 2019 season: A road game in Foxborough, Massachusetts. However, this time around, these teams had a complete makeover on their roster.
Before we do that, Brian Flores on Monday announced in a presser that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting QB in week one against The New England Patriots. This was the expected result, knowing that rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa did not have the typical offseason of rookie camp and training camp practices.
Fitzpatrick deserves the opportunity to be the week one starter. After Miami started 0-7 last year, Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins finished 5-4 down the stretch, created momentum into the offseason, still drafted their potential franchise QB at number 5 overall, and more importantly, put the tanking narrative to bed.
Let’s talk about the opposition, The New England Patriots. For the first time since the 2001 season, they won’t have Tom Brady on the roster, which earlier this offseason, he announced that he will sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Brady was not the only key player on the Patriots to depart. The other departure via Free Agency includes LB Kyle Van Noy(Miami), LB Jamie Collins Sr.(Detroit), DT Danny Shelton(Detroit), and C Ted Karras(Miami). However, the one thing Bill Belichick does well over and over again is letting players walk in free agency and getting comp picks in return for those players, continuously getting those picks by volume.
The expectation heading into 2020 after Brady announced he was leaving was that 2019 4th round pick Jarrett Stidham from Auburn would be the starter for the Patriots. Of course, Bill Belichick never reveals his hand, so he went out and signed former number one overall pick and 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton, where he was released by the Carolina Panthers after 9 seasons. The deal that Newton was offered was a one-year “prove it” deal. According to over the cap, the Patriots are currently scheduled to have the 4th most cap space heading into the 2021 offseason, so if Cam Newton performs well to Bill Belichick’s standard, we can expect Newton to receive a possible long term deal after this season. However, that is yet to be determined on whether we will see the MVP version of Cam Newton before he sustained injuries in 2018 and 2019.
***NEW*** @DolphinsTalk.com Podcast hosted by @DolphinsTalkTom as we go over the Depth Chart, Team Captains, and open up the mail bag https://t.co/rjizdCWrgg #iTunes
— DolphinsTalk.com (@DolphinsTalk) September 8, 2020
More turnover for New England, they have an NFL league-high of 8 total players opting out of the 2020 season, due to COVID-19 concerns. Those players include T Marcus Cannon, LB Dont’a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, TE Matt LaCosse, RB Brandon Bolden, FB Dan Vitale, WR Marqise Lee, and G Najaee Toran.
All these circumstances for the Patriots will be the true test to Belichick’s coaching. They still have the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Corner Stephon Gillmore on their roster, S Devin McCourty was resigned to a 2-year contract this past offseason, bringing a continuity piece back to Bill Belichick’s defense. On the Offensive side, though Tom Brady is gone, there is still Super Bowl MVP WR Julian Edelman, who can help Cam Newton get more comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ offense, but it’s going to be a work in progress.
Although most of these are advantages for the Miami Dolphins, there is one advantage that probably the biggest of them all. The New England Patriots announced on August 19th that they will play their home games through the end of September with no fans in the stands. Although there will be pumped-in crowd noise at Gillette Stadium in Miami’s week one matchup, it will not be the same home-field advantage that New England usually has. When you add the turnover on the roster, those two combined is a huge advantage for Miami.
Unit to watch for the Dolphins, the offensive line. On Monday, along with announcing the starting QB, the Dolphins released their latest depth chart. Although Brian Flores emphasized that there will be doing a whole lot of different combinations, the OL Unit reads(from LT to RT): Austin Jackson, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Solomon Kindley, and Jesse Davis. Regardless of combination though, this line was something that was a huge investment this offseason, and it takes time to gel. Miami was one of the worst OL units in 2019, so this makeover was necessary. Against a Bill Belichick-coached defense, he’s going to do everything he can do to make the offensive line and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick uncomfortable, especially the rookies. That is also the reason why I believe Brian Flores put TE Durham Smythe as TE1 to help out these rookies on the offensive line. So that is the unit I think we should keep an eye on the most.
Biggest Question mark on the Dolphins: the defensive line. In 2019, Miami’s was last in the NFL in sacks. Although, there were additions of Kyle Van Noy, Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson. There are draft picks from the past two years in Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis, and a continuity piece in Davon Godchaux, Miami does not have the number one, dominant pass rusher. They are looking for their Cameron Wake for this era of Miami Dolphins football. For the first time in 20 years, Miami is facing a Patriots QB who is more than just a pocket passer, when Cam Newton needs to run, he will, and Miami over the last few seasons have not been able to stop running QB’s. Newton’s size alone will be hard to take him down. Whether he is comfortable scrambling in the pocket and running after two years of injuries, that yet to be determined on what his comfort level is in that department.
The most favorable matchup, Dolphins secondary vs. Patriots WR’s. With the signing of Byron Jones opposite of Xavien Howard, the corner tandem is one that is going to be a strength for this team, especially if Howard is able to stay on the field. Flores discovered Eric Rowe’s strengths as a safety instead of playing corner, and Miami still has a huge continuity piece in Bobby McCain. With the Laremy Tunsil pick from Houston, Miami picked up Noah Igbinoghene from Auburn, who can be interchanged with Howard and Jones, or if they decide to go with a nickel package, Miami can have all 3 on the field.
Last year, Tom Brady had a hard time finding the open man. The best receiver on the offense is Super Bowl 53 MVP Julian Edelman. 2019 first-round pick N’keal Harry spent most of the 2019 season hurt, but when he did play, he only had 12 receptions in 7 games. So his production is still to be determined with a new QB in New England. Look for New England to use James white a lot as that receiving back for the Patriots. Just like the Dolphins, New England did not address the Wide Receiver position in the 2020 NFL Draft, they also did not resign Mohamed Sanu(who is still a free agent), so wide receiver is a huge area of weakness for this Patriots roster once again.
Prediction: Miami 17, New England 10
I don’t believe that this will be a high scoring game with how the offenses on both teams still need some work. New England defense is going to bring it against Miami, they’re going to test the Miami offensive line. However, with all the turnover on the roster, questions at wide receiver, a new Quarterback who we do not know if he is going to perform like his past self, no fans in the crowd, Miami confident in beating the Patriots in Foxborough after winning there in Week 17 in 2019, this matchup favors the Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a comfort level with having Chain Gailey as his Offensive Coordinator, that from the start of Gailey being hired, Fitzpatrick has had the opportunity to pass on his knowledge of the offense to the rest of the roster, and favors Miami as they march into New England on September 13th, to pick up right where they left off from the 2019 season.
