Week 2 – Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Preview

The page is officially turned. After failing to stop the run against one running quarterback it’s time to get ready to stop another running Quarterback in Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

One knock that many people have had on Josh Allen has been completion percentage and fumbles, entering 2020 with a completion percentage of 56.3% and 22 fumbles in 28 games. However, his biggest strength as a Quarterback has been his ability to run after the pocket collapses and if he is unable to find the open receiver.

How has he done so far with one game into the 2020 season? Went 33/46 for 312 yards, 2 TD’s 0 INT’s, 57 yards rushing with 1 rushing TD. Although accuracy was not an issue through one game and he did not have his best game running, there was an issue with ball security. Allen had two fumbles and both of them were lost, so that is still an issue. Strange enough, when the Bills drafted Allen, there was talk about how his big hands would help him secure the ball better for when the Bills played games in December, but early on in September, he has been unable to secure the football. Unless he makes adjustments, I’m sure Dolphins defenders are advised to try their absolute best to punch the ball out they hit him, knowing that he has those fumbling issues.

Let’s take a took at how the Buffalo Bills have looked against the Dolphins since Josh Allen has been drafted:

Week 12 2018: 18/33 for 231 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. One interception was at the end of the half, and the other INT, Miami threw an interception on the very next play, canceling it out, so no points off those picks. Running the ball, Allen rushed 9 times for 135 yards averaging 15 yards per carry. Destroyed the Dolphins on the ground. However, Miami was able to win that game 21-17 thanks to a muffed Punt by Buffalo early in the 2nd quarter, resulting in a TD, Miami responding with a TD in the middle of the 4th quarter after Buffalo scored a TD, and Buffalo missing a 55-yard FG late in the 4th to bring it to one, putting pressure on Buffalo’s offense to score a TD on their final drive, which Miami was able to stop.

Week 17 2018: The final game of the Adam Gase Era. Josh Allen went 17/26 for 224 yards, 3 TD’s 1 INT. On the ground, he rushed for 95 yards on 9 carries, averaging 10.6 yards per carry. This time around, an interception did result in points, a 29-yard interception return for a TD by Reshad Jones to tie the game at 14. However, that was the last spark Miami had in this game. They did not have the lead once and after pick-6, Buffalo outscored Miami 28-3 in the second half. The Bills were able to score at will and the Dolphins offense was unable to respond. 2 of those second-half TD’s by Buffalo were a result of fumble’s lost by the Miami offense, one by Ryan Tannehill, the other by Kalen Ballage. Dolphins ended up being blown out by a final score of 42-17, which was enough for Stephen Ross to pull the plug on Adam Gase.

Week 7 2019: A game in which went into 0-5 and desperate for a win, had a lead at one point in the second half. As Miami tried to go up by 2 scores, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a red-zone interception. After that, Allen and the Bills marched down the field for a 98-yard drive for a TD, taking the lead and holding on to that lead for the rest of the game. Dolphins had another drive where Preston Williams fumbled the ball deep into Buffalo territory, resulting in a Buffalo TD after just 3 plays. Although Miami turned the ball over in the second half and they both resulted in TD’s, Miami had a chance to get the ball back with 1:54 left in the 4th. Then really awful special teams coverage on an onside kick happened. As Jason Sanders tried an onside kick, Buffalo’s Micah Hyde was able to retrieve the ball and go untouched for 45 yards for a TD’s, going up by two scores and icing the game for Buffalo. Josh Allen went 16/26 for 202 yards. 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s, rushed 4 times for 32 yards. Although there was not as much damage that time around with Allen’s legs, he was able to take advantage of 2 turnovers by Miami on the day and turning them into touchdown drives and a 31-21 win at home.

Week 11 2019: This game was not close at all. Coming into this game, the league knew that the Buffalo Bills were legit. In this game, Miami did not lead at all. Down early 23-7 in the second quarter after once again, the Buffalo Bills scoring a touchdown after a Dolphins turnover, courtesy of Allen Hurns. This was also shortly after Miami recovered a surprise onside kick where the Bills specials team fell asleep and Jason Sanders was able to recover his own kick. There was a little hope though when Jakeem Grant returned a kick for 101 yards for a TD to bring them to a 9-point deficit. After that, Miami was unable to get any closer. After Buffalo scored a TD early in the 4th quarter to go up 17, Miami’s offense desperate to score a TD, went for it on 4th down 3 times in the final quarter, all 3 times, they did not convert. Buffalo’s defense had their way as they were able to keep Miami’s offense in check. Josh Allen went 21/33 for 256 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. He also had a rushing TD, rushing for 56 yards on 7 carries, averaging 8 yards a carry on Buffalo’s 37-20 over the Dolphins on the road at Hard Rock Stadium.

Buffalo’s record vs. Miami since drafting Josh Allen: 3-1.

Keys to the game:

  • Keep Allen in the pocket as much as you can. After failing to contain Cam Newton last week, Buffalo coach Sean McDermott will be looking to attack the Dolphins defense, mostly on the run. If Allen is running, he tends to not tuck the ball as he runs, resulting in 24 fumbles in 29 games, so wrapping him up and not arm tackling him is key.
  • Turnover-free game: In 4 games against Buffalo since 2018, Miami has shot themselves in the foot, for the most part, a good portion of their turnovers have resulted in points for the Bills, and those are hard to come back from when you are giving the other team the ball. The Bills did give a contract extension for CB Tredavious White this offseason, so look for him to make some impact plays on defense. After throwing 3 interceptions against New England last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins are looking to clean up those mistakes.
  • Create separation on the Bills secondary: Miami last week had a hard time creating separation on the New England defense last week. This does not get any easier for Miami as they face yet another elite defense within the division. Although there are questions on whether Dolphins WR will play this week after suffering a hamstring injury against New England in Week 1, Miami is likely looking for more involvement out of Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant and Mike Geskicki.

It was reported on Wednesday morning that just 3 days after Devante Parker missed the majority of the second half, that he was spotted in full pads at practice. So There are some encouraging signs that he will play this Sunday at home against the Buffalo Bills. However, we should not expect Parker to play a huge amount of snap as the coaching staff might not want to make this issue any worse. It seems that he was taken out of Sunday’s game against the Patriots for the reason being so that it would not get worse, if that is the case, great awareness on the Dolphins medical staff and Head Coach Brian Flores.

Prediction: Buffalo 34, Miami 20.

The truth is, Buffalo is a few years ahead of Miami in their building to becoming a contender. Miami had a lot of trouble stopping the run in Week one. Although the offensive line for Buffalo is not at the level that is of New England, Josh Allen historically against Miami has not had less than 8 yards per rush in each of his 4 previous matchups against the Dolphins. With a completion percentage of over 70% in Buffalo’s Week 1 win against the New York Jets, it seems as if Allen is going to take that next step as a quarterback in the NFL, even though it is just one game and the expectation for the Jets is very low. Miami’s secondary was not challenged much this past Sunday, but they will definitely have an eye on Buffalo’s new number 1 receiver Stephon Diggs(who they traded a first-round pick for this past offseason) had 8 receptions on 9 targets for 86 yards, so Stephon Diggs vs. the Dolphins secondary will definitely be something to watch. If he and Allen are contained, and the Dolphins limit turnovers, then Miami will definitely give themselves a better chance to come out on top this Sunday.

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