All-22 Breakdown: Tua vs the Broncos

In last week’s article, I started with celebrating the Dolphins’ five-game win streak. This week, sadly, we have to talk about a losing football team again. The Dolphins dropped their first game in over a month, 20-13, against the Broncos on Sunday. 

If you follow me on Twitter then you know I don’t think panic is the correct thing to do in this scenario. Miami is still 6-4, in the thick of the playoff race, and most importantly in year two in one of the NFL’s largest rebuilds in recent memory. I always viewed this as a multi-year project and right now Miami is ahead of schedule. 

This week not only brought panic for some but also anger. Brian Flores made the executive decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter because of his performance. After the game, he declared Tua the starter for next week’s game against the Jets and said Fitzpatrick gave the team the best chance to win. 

So, does the film back up Flores’ claim and decision? More importantly, even if the film backs up was it the right decision? Let’s dive in and find out. 

I figured I would start with Tua’s best play of the day since I’m going to spend most of this article lamenting him for his mistakes in this one. If you’re a blind Tua fan then I recommend clicking elsewhere because this week was brutal. 

However, this throw is easily the best one of the day. Tua makes me cringe sometimes because he’s so good at throwing the goal line fade, which is one of the worst play calls in any playbook. The goal-line fade is one of the least efficient pass attempts you can call, but my word does Tua throw a pretty touch pass. 

This one is especially perfect because of the placement relative to Parker’s leverage on the CB. Parker released outside like he was gunning for the back pylon, however, he doesn’t have a path to the back pylon. 

This leads Tua to throw the ball back shoulder where the CB has no chance of getting to it. This is the only possible place Tua can throw the ball for Parker to get it without much interference from the CB. 

Sadly, this was the peak of Tua’s day and it came in the first quarter. 

Before you start yelling at me, yes, I am aware this play didn’t count. However, Tua didn’t know that when he threw it so it is worth breaking down. The play call is a simple play-action boot the Dolphins run a ton out of 11 personnel. 

The TE chips and then runs into the flat, the outside receiver runs a little comeback route, and then you have a backside crosser. Denver comes out in what looks like a traditional cover two look with man coverage across the board. 

I don’t know if the play-action draws the safety in or if the safety was going there anyway, but Simmons comes down and ends up acting as a “robber.” Now the coverage becomes a cover-1 robber. 

When Tua roles out he thinks he’s got the comeback route open because based on the presnap read nobody else should be there. However, Simmons is standing right there, and Tua throws the ball anyway. I’m assuming he didn’t see him there and was just surprised he stepped down after the fake. 

Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great play by Simmons who is one of the better safeties in the league. With that said, Tua can’t make this throw. He’s lucky he got bailed out by a flimsy penalty but at some point, these throws will count. 

The previous throw is definitely concerning, but Tua is a rookie. Mistakes are going to happen where he doesn’t see guys or throws into coverage. This play is far more concerning because I think he just got rattled pretty early in the game. 

Miami comes out with trips to Tua’s right. It’s a pretty simple route combination. The slot guy runs a deep seven route, the middle receiver runs to the falt, and then the outside receiver runs a drag across the field. 

Parker is the man running the deep corner route, and he is wide open. Seriously, there is no point in this play where he isn’t open. Amazingly, Tua doesn’t see him, and I can’t for the life of me figure out why. 

Sure, there is some pressure but he goes through his progressions and definitely gets to that part of the field in time to make this throw. Heck, Parker has so much separation he didn’t even need to put that much zip on it. 

Tua either didn’t see him or he dropped his eyes when he shouldn’t have. Either way, it is a huge missed opportunity for an explosive play that needs to be corrected in the future. 

Now this play is a bit more forgivable, but it is still a miss. Tua is going to learn this with time but everything happens quicker in the red zone, especially in the NFL. You have to make quicker decisions and you can’t hold the ball too long. 

The important receiver to watch on this play is Malcolm Perry who is in the slot at the bottom of the screen. He’s running a corner route to the front pylon. Now, Tua starts his progressions to the left side of the field and doesn’t like what he sees. 

When he comes back right, it’s a little late and the throw would’ve been tough, but Perry has won outside leverage with a great route and is open. Throwing this from the opposite hash would’ve been quite difficult but these are the types of throws you have to make in the red zone. 

Additionally, if Tua does miss this throw there is a good chance he misses it long which means it lands out of bounds, away from trouble. The only reason I mention that is because he ends up taking a sack which is much worse than an incompletion. 

Miami’s offensive line didn’t do Tua any favors on Sunday, but this specific play is squarely on Tua. 

I’ve been hard on Tua but there were plenty of plays where the things around him failed. This play is a solid example of that in a lot of ways. Pause the above video at five seconds and tell me if anyone is open. 

The answer is no. Secondly, we have either a horrible play design or someone ran the wrong route because Gesiki and Grant are essentially right on top of each other way too far down the field. 

To make matters worse, when the pocket eventually collapses, Tua scrambles out to his left where there are only two receivers because for some reason there are now three receivers within 10 yards of each other on the right side of the field. 

The running back is open in the flat, but Tua waits too long to throw it and then lollipops the ball to him letting the DB make a hit. Ahmed gets tagged with a drop, but if he caught it he would have gotten blown up so he might’ve been better off. 

This play is just all-around bad. 

 

Conclusion:

 

So based on the film Flores was right, right? Tua didn’t play well therefore he should’ve been pulled from the game. In a bubble without an ounce of context, yes Flores made the right call. However, we don’t live in a bubble. 

The context of this situation changes everything. Firstly, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t good. Sorry, Dolphins’ fans he’s not a good quarterback. He’s mediocre at best and truly awful at worst. Sure he moved the ball a little bit, but he also threw a truly horrible INT to end the game. I mean seriously, it’s one of the worst INTs I’ve seen in a while. 

Secondly, and more importantly, Flores robbed his young franchise QB of a chance to go win/tie the game. Rising to big moments is what separates the elite QBs of the NFL from the good ones. It’s what separates someone like Tom Brady from Matt Ryan (yes, I’m aware there are other reasons). 

Why is Brady the best to ever do it? He’s the best clutch time QB of all time. If you don’t give your QB a chance to go win you the game then you will never know if they can do it and that is a pretty dang important thing to figure out with a player you picked at number five overall. 

For as bad as Tua and the offensive played as a whole, the Dolphins only trailed Denver by 10 points with 10 minutes left in the game. Meaning Tua had plenty of time to lead two scoring drives. Was it likely? No. But we will literally never know because of an incredibly short-sighted decision by Flores.

I think Flores is a good coach, but he scares me sometimes. He toes the line between too set in his ways and someone who isn’t thinking about the big picture a little more often than I would like. However, this isn’t the time for panic. It’s one game and one bad decision. The Dolphins are still 6-4. 

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