Matchup Breakdown for Dolphins and Chiefs, Tua versus Mahomes

I almost mixed it up again this week for the column. 

I almost did another player spotlight or a piece on Coach Flores, but then I looked ahead to Sunday. This game against the Chiefs is too good to pass up.

I mean, come on — it’s Mahomes vs. Tua, Reid vs. Flores, allies against the Patriots last season turned enemies this year on the path to the playoffs. 

And speaking of playoffs…

Ladies and gentlemen, we’re on the home stretch.

With only four games to go in this bizarre 2020 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins’ contest against the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday might be their game of the year to this point.

Sitting at 8-4, the Dolphins are in contention for the AFC East crown, or a wildcard berth in the playoffs should the Bills claim the division.

This week especially carries serious implications for the playoff picture, as matchups between contenders are all over the slate for the weekend. Consider…

On Sunday, the Dolphins’ game opens up one of the toughest schedules in the league over the final four weeks of the season, and Mahomes coming to town represents the most daunting of the final four games. 

There’s no better way for this young team to cut its teeth in the most important month in regular season football than by squaring off against such a difficult opponent on Sunday, especially for Tua. This is his first matchup against Mahomes, a quarterback fans hope he’ll be going toe-to-toe with for years to come in games that truly matter.

It’s like Luke facing Vader in Episode V — they meet again later on in Episode VI, but the first bout was a sign of things to come. Luke falls short and loses a hand along the way, but we could see some of the potential and glimpses of who he would grow into. The Dolphins may not win against the Chiefs, but this is the fight that shows us where this team is at right now headed into the playoff squeeze.

They may not be ready to compete against the reigning Super Bowl champs just yet, but crazier things have happened. Either way, this game featuring Luke versus Vader — er, I mean Tua versus Mahomes — could be a bit of foreshadowing for the future (here’s hoping Tua doesn’t lose a hand, though).

On that note, let’s take a look at a few key stats for the contest that’ll be aired to most of the country on Sunday…

First off, the Chiefs’ strong points. Everyone talks about the offense — which is warranted, given Andy Reid has it humming to the tune of 1st in yards per game and 2nd in points per game — but the defense is also a capable unit. Much like the Dolphins’ defense, the Chiefs don’t allow many points but are more forgiving when it comes to yards. They rank 6th in points allowed but 17th in yards allowed. 

As far as pass defense goes, the Chiefs hover right around 10th in most categories but stand out in one important aspect: their interception rate. They come in 3rd for that metric. For reference, the Dolphins sit behind them at 6th, even with all of Xavien Howard’s picks.

That stat, plus the fact that Patrick Mahomes has only thrown 2 interceptions to a whopping 31 touchdowns, has led the Chiefs to the top of the entire league in turnover margin. Especially in games between two good teams, this is one of the most important stats in football.

While the Chiefs sit at 1st, the Dolphins come in at 4th for turnover margin, so Sunday’s game will feature teams who generally take care of the ball well and are opportunistic on defense.

As scary as the Chiefs are on both sides of the ball, there is some good news.

There are a couple of chinks in the armor, however small.

The Chiefs are dead last in red-zone defense, so it will be imperative for Tua and the Dolphins to get into the endzone better than they did last week against the Bengals inside the twenty. 

Stats aside, you don’t beat teams like the Chiefs with field goals. You need touchdowns. The Dolphins learned this lesson week two in a loss against the Seahawks.

Another weak spot for the Chiefs is their yards per rush allowed. They’re 30th in this category but have been able to mask the deficiency by getting leads and forcing teams to abandon the run early on. 

The Dolphins certainly have a chance in this game, but their hopes might hinge on taking advantage of a vulnerable run defense with a run offense that has been anemic all season, ranking dead last in yards per carry. 

The offensive line will have to open up holes early, and Myles Gaskin will have to keep the run game viable if the Dolphins will keep pace. And there’s this: The more the Dolphins run, the more clock they consume with Mahomes sitting helplessly on the sideline. That’s undoubtedly the biggest key to beating the Chiefs — keeping Vader off the field.

And just in case you’ve been living under a rock for the past month or two, the Dolphins have a few defensive strengths to lean on in this game as well.

They’re currently 1st in third-down conversion rate allowed and 2nd in points allowed, and Flores’ defense will have to do these standings justice if they hope to contain Andy Reid’s offense.

The Dolphins don’t yet have the talent to beat the Chiefs without playing at or near their best, but the good news is that the Fins are still one of the least penalized teams in the league even after last week. They rank 3rd in penalties per game and will need to keep this discipline to hang on Sunday. 

Lastly, one interesting tidbit that will apply on Sunday: For all the Dolphins’ struggles with running the ball, they can’t be blamed for lack of trying. They rank 11th in percentage of run plays called even while being last in yards per carry, so if there’s ever a game where this insistence on running the ball needs to pay off, it’s this one. 

Take advantage of an apparently weak run defense to kill the clock, let Tua operate effectively with play action, and keep Mahomes off the field. It’s worth a shot.

In the end, this bout probably ends up being like the Cardinals game from a few weeks back. The Dolphins will have to score to win, and I still think Tua is due for his first big game.

Big as in 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns on the way to a dramatic victory. Maybe this won’t be the week given the opponent’s caliber, but Luke Skywalker has to wield the force at some point and realize his destiny.

And wouldn’t it be sweet if that happened this week against Vader and the Chiefs?

 

(Thanks for reading, and for more content find me on Twitter @EvanMorris72)

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