Too Early To Say The Dolphins Drafted The Wrong Quarterback

Every year, quarterbacks are drafted high in the NFL draft because the quarterback is the most important position in the league. If you have a franchise quarterback, your team should be good for at least the next 10 years. If you pick a quarterback and he becomes a bust or doesn’t pan out the way you expect, then your team will be anywhere from bad to average at best. No matter how well you build up your roster, it always comes down to who you have at quarterback. For the Miami Dolphins, they have gone through so many quarterbacks since Dan Marino retired 20 years ago, and the franchise has been anywhere from bad to average at best.

This past draft, the Dolphins had the 5th pick in the draft, and they had to choose between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert to be their next potential franchise quarterback. Whether it’s fair or not, this draft will be judged by how well each quarterback does. It’s just a fact it comes down to the quarterback. Herbert was drafted one pick after the Dolphins at 6 by the Los Angeles Chargers, looking for a potential franchise quarterback after cutting ties with long-time franchise quarterback Philip Rivers. Joe Burrow was the number 1 pick by the Cincinnati Bengals, and draft experts had him going number 1, so unless the Dolphins or Chargers made a blockbuster trade with the Bengals, they weren’t getting him. Tagolvailoa, before last year, was considered the best quarterback prospect to be eligible for the draft. Still, things changed when he suffered a broken hip and threatened his playing career, so teams took that into major consideration due to the injury’s nature. Herbert was considered the most physically gifted quarterback of the group but was inconsistent in his college career.

Through 11 games this season, all of these quarterbacks have played, but not every game because every circumstance is different. The Bengals let Burrow be the starter from day one of training camp, giving him all of the snap. Simultaneously, the Dolphins and Chargers wanted their rookies to start the season on the bench and not rush behind the team’s incumbents in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor, respectively. Burrow played in 10 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Still, despite the injury and rehab ahead of him, people feel he has a bright future and played well before the injury. For the season, Burrow threw for 2,688 yards, completed 65.3% of his passes, threw for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and fumbled 5 times. Those are good numbers, and he played well despite being surrounded by one of the worst run franchises in the NFL. The question with Burrow is whether the Bengals will provide him the support to succeed.

In Herbert and Tagovailoa, both started the season on the bench, but things changed in both cases. In week 2, Taylor suffered a punctured lung while getting a cortisone shot for a broken rib, which opened the door for Herbert. In his 10 games since, Herbert has thrown for 3,015 yards, completed 66.9 % of his passes, thrown for 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and fumbled 3 times. Herbert has established himself as the starter for the Chargers and has played with the poise and confidence you want in a young quarterback despite his team struggling with a 3-8 record. For Tagovailoa, he has named the starter in week 8 after coach Brian Flores decided to bench Fitzpatrick and has started 4 games. In his 4 games as a starter, Tagovailoa has thrown for 602 yards, completed 61.9% of his passes, throwing for 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and 1 fumble. Tagovailoa’s numbers look good through 4 games as he went 3-1 in those games, however in his 4th game, he was benched in favor of Fitzpatrick because he was struggling, and Flores felt the team needed a spark. Flores, after the game, said Tagovailoa would be the starter moving forward.

Tagovailoa’s benching provided a lot of talk on sports talk on how the Dolphins picked the wrong quarterback and should have picked Herbert. Mike Greenberg of ESPN took it a step further, saying the Dolphins got this wrong, and Herbert looks special and is more ready than Tagovailoa because the game isn’t too big for him looks too big for Tagovailoa. OK, Greenberg is entitled to his opinion like everybody, but he’s an idiot; quite frankly, if there is one person I’m not going to listen to, it’s him. He said this day after Herbert had a big game against his favorite team, the Jets throwing for 366 yards and throwing 3 touchdown passes. I’m sorry the Jets 0-11 and stink, to put it mildly. They are an embarrassment and might not win a game this year. You’re going to crown Herbert better than Tagovailoa after a great game against your pathetic team. For goodness sake, my 7-year-old daughter might do just as well against that lousy Jets team. One of the things that annoy me nowadays with football shows and pregame is everyone is week to week with how teams and players are doing. The Dolphins, when Tagovailoa started his first 3 games, won, and everyone saying the team found their quarterback and the team has a chance. Then after he gets benched, the sky has fallen, and the Dolphins got it wrong. Seriously chill out, everyone. When it comes to Greenberg, I can’t take him seriously in anything. If he has a segment about the Jets, he can’t keep his fan bias out. Before the season started, he said Sam Darnold would take the next step and become the better quarterback of the ones taken in the 2018 draft. Gee, I wonder why? Could it be because he’s a Jets fan?

I’m a big believer in watching the development of young players from year one to year two. That is especially important with quarterbacks, and circumstances can change from one year to the next for better or worse.

In 2018, 5 quarterbacks were taken in the first round, and all of the quarterbacks drafted played differently and developed differently. The quarterbacks taken were Baker Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns, Darnold by the Jets, Josh Allen by the Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen by the Arizona Cardinals, and Lamar Jackson by the Baltimore Ravens. Each quarterback started the 2018 season on the bench but ended up playing, and each played differently. Mayfield started 14 games threw for 3,725 yds passing with a 63.8 completion percentage to go along with 27 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, and 4 fumbles. Mayfield sparked the Browns to a 7-8-1 record. Darnold started 13 games threw for 2,865 yards with a 57.7 completion percentage to go along with 17 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions, and 1 fumble. The Jets struggled and finished with a 4-12 record. Allen started 12 games for the rebuilding Bills, and he struggled at times. Allen threw 2,074 yards with a 52.8 completion percentage with 10 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and 3 fumbles. Allen also did work with his legs rushing for 631 yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 5 fumbles. The Bills finished 6-10. Many draft analysts considered Rosen to be the most pro ready quarterback, but he struggled as well. He threw for 2,278 yards with a 55.2 completion percentage, 11 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions, and 7 fumbles. The Cardinals finished with a record of 3-12-1, the worst in the league.  Jackson started 7 games and provided a spark to the Ravens offense leading them to the playoffs with a 10-6 record. Jackson threw for 1,201 yards, completing 58.2 percent of his passes, with 6 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, and 2 fumbles. Like Allen, Jackson did a lot of running, rushing for 695 yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 10 fumbles. If you are going to go by stats, like most people, you would say Mayfield had the best season of all of the quarterbacks and looking like the more promising quarterbacks, but things can change by circumstances, and they did for some of these quarterbacks last year.

Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen all had head coaching changes last season. In Rosen’s case, the new coach wanted to bring in a different quarterback, and with the number 1 pick, took Kyler Murray. Rosen was traded to the Dolphins and started 3 games and didn’t play inspired. He threw for 567 yards with a 53.2 completion percentage to go along with 1 touchdown pass, 5 interceptions, and 1 fumble. Darnold got off to a slow start because he missed time with mono. He ended the season on a high note. He threw for 3,024 yards with a 61.9 completion percentage to go with 19 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, and 6 fumbles. The Jets ended the season on a high note 7-9 after a slow start, especially with Darnold. Mayfield’s new coach was the interim coach in Freddie Kitchens, who helped him develop his rookie year. The expectation was Mayfield would take off, and the Browns would go to the playoffs, but the season was a disappointment. The Browns finished with a disappointing 6-10 record. Mayfield’s play regressed as well. He started all 16 games threw for 3,827 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes, 21 interceptions, and 4 fumbles. Mayfield looked lost and pressing at the time.

Allen and Jackson took leaps with their teams. Allen led the Bills to the playoffs with a 10-6 record. He threw for 3,089 yards with a 58.8 completion percentage, 20 touchdown passes, 9interceptions, and 6 fumbles. He also continued being a scrambler rushing for 510 yards with 9 rushing touchdowns and 7 fumbles. Allen grew in his second year and tried to do too much and had turnovers, but the development from year 1 to year 2 was better. Jackson enjoyed a breakout year leading the Ravens to a 14-2 record, the best in the AFC. Jackson threw for 3,127 yards with a 66.1 completion percentage, 36 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, and 0 fumbles, but he is mostly remembered for running as he rushed for 1,206 yards with 7 rushing touchdowns and 8 fumbles. Both Allen and Jackson are good athletes and continued throwing the ball in their 2nd seasons.

The 3rd season is when you are expected to see bigger growth in a young quarterback, and it’s typically when you will know if you have your franchise quarterback or not because they are halfway through their rookie contracts. Rosen never made it through training camp for the Dolphins as they cut him before the season started. He never stepped up his game like they would have liked, and with Fitzpatrick and Tagovailoa playing well, there was no room for him, so unless he gets another chance with another team to play, it looks like he is a first-round bust who flamed out. He was considered the most pro quarterback ready prospect. Darnold was expected to raise his game to another level after finishing the season strong, but he has regressed, and the Jets are heading for a winless season and a complete reboot. Darnold could still salvage his career, but he needs a fresh start once the season ends. Mayfield has rebounded with a solid season with the Browns. The Browns are in the playoff hunt, and while Mayfield has played well, he has been basically a game manager for the Browns and relying on a power running game. Mayfield has decent stats throwing so far for 2,108 yards with a 61.2 completion percentage, 17 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and 2 fumbles. It’s progressed from a year ago. Allen took a big leap as he has the Bills in first in the AFC East with an 8-3 record. The Bills have become a passing team with his development as he has thrown for 3,028 yards with a 68.8 completion percentage, 22 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, and 2 fumbles. He still runs when he needs to, but not as much as his previous two years as he only has 311 yards rushing with 6 rushing touchdowns and 3 fumbles. Allen still has a tendency to try to do too much at times, and it leads to turnovers, but he’s a better passer now than 2 years ago. Jackson still has the Ravens in the playoff hunt, but he has probably taken a step back this year because teams have defended his running better. His passing numbers aren’t what they were last year as he had thrown for 1,948 yards with a 63.4 completion percentage to go with 15 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, and 3 fumbles. He still runs a lot as he has 575 yards rushing with 3 rushing touchdowns and 3 fumbles.  Jackson needs to continue to develop as a passer.

 

If we went by the rookie seasons of those guys, you would have thought Mayfield would be the better quarterback. However, given 3 years, Allen looks to be the better quarterback. One advantage Allen has had is being with the same coaching staff and offensive system. It also helped that the Bills made an aggressive deal giving him a true number 1 receiver in Stephon Diggs as he has helped him become a better passer and opening up the offense for others. The coaching change hurt Rosen as his new coach didn’t want him, but as we see, Rosen just isn’t a franchise quarterback. Mayfield and Darnold have gone through multiple regime changes, and who knows how they will do. Jackson needs to continue to become a better passer.

This shows that we can’t judge right now if the Dolphins made a mistake taking Tagovailoa over Herbert. Both players are in different circumstances, just like the class of 2018. Herbert looks like he could have a coaching change at the end of the season, so who knows how that will turn out for him. Tagovailoa is still developing on a team in a rebuilding stage. Still, he must continually develop, and the Dolphins have to continue to surround him with more talent. Herbert has more talent around him with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at receiver, but with a coaching change around the corner and probably roster turnover, we need to see how things play out at least a couple of years down the road.

As a die-hard Dolphins fan who grew up with Marino, I’ve been waiting for the team to find their next franchise quarterback. It’s been frustrating because the team has bypassed on quarterbacks, not made an aggressive move for another, or held on to a quarterback too long when it’s obvious they aren’t the answer. I also know when you draft a quarterback high like, Tagovailoa, it takes time for a player to develop, and I’m willing to see how he develops rather than looking at how the quarterback we bypassed is doing after 10 games. That’s too small a sample size.

BE SURE TO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK:  CLICK HERE 

BE SURE TO FOLLOW US ON TWITTER:  CLICK HERE

BE SURE TO FOLLOW US ON INSTAGRAM: CLICK HERE