The dream scenario as the Miami Dolphins as they get ready for free agency on March 17th and the 2021 NFL Draft is to trade out of the number 3 overall pick, which they got from the Houston Texans from the Laremy Tunsil trade in the 11th hour before the start of the 2019 NFL season.
How great of a position must you be in going 10-6 and still getting the number 3 overall pick? Words cannot describe that they do not need to make a super desperate move with the number 3 overall pick because of the Dolphins’ success last season. They don’t necessarily need to go Wide Receiver at number 3 if they can’t find a trade partner because they have an early 2; they can go wide receiver at 3(if they want) and get another offensive lineman later in the draft. If the expected picks of Trevor Lawerence to Jacksonville and the Jets taking Zach Wilson out of BYU, if they’re unable to trade, the consideration at that pick should be either OT Penei Sewell out of Oregon or WR Jamar Chase out of LSU. I know Jamar Chase opted out of the season in 2020, and Devonta Smith won the Heisman, but recency bias can make us forget how great a player like Jamar Chase was during LSU’s National Championship run in 2019.
Before considering either Sewell or Chase, Priority number one is to trade down and possibly get a haul of picks. Those picks possibly resulting in still getting a wide receiver this year in round one, keep your 18th pick, and if they want to be aggressive for a player they like, Miami can even trade back into the late first round and draft a player there.
But what does recent NFL Draft history tell us about trading the number 3 overall pick? Let’s go over the last 10 years’ worth of drafts.
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2012: The Minnesota Vikings traded back one spot from 3 to 4 with the Cleveland Browns where Trent Richardson was the pick for Cleveland and Minnesota got back Cleveland’s number 4 pick, a 4th rounder, a 5th, and a 7th. Trent Richardson did not work out in the NFL, and Minnesota turned the 7th round pick that they got from Cleveland into a 6th in 2013 and then a 7th round pick later in that draft.
Who’s at number 4 in 2021? The Atlanta Falcons might or might not be Quarterback hungry based on Matt Ryan’s age and a regime change in Atlanta.
2013: The Miami Dolphins traded up from number 12 to number 3 overall with the Oakland Raiders to select Oregon DE Dion Jordan. The Dolphins traded the 12th overall pick and a 2nd round pick in 2013(42nd overall). The Dion Jordan only experiment was meant for him to be that dominant pass rusher to play alongside Cameron Wake and maybe take his place as Wake was getting older. That did not work out, only logging 3 sacks and multiple off-field troubles with substance abuses. However, the trade did not necessarily work out for Oakland neither. They did not move up or down again after they received a second from Miami, and the players they selected, Cornerback DJ Hayden and Tackle Menelik Watson, did not make it to a second contract.
Who has the 12th overall pick this year? The San Francisco 49ers where there are still questions on whether Jimmy Garoppolo is still the Quarterback of the future in the Bay area, so that’s a possible trade partner.
2017: This was a trade-up from 3 to 2 where the Chicago Bears traded up one spot with San Francisco to draft UNC Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Although we should not expect Miami to trade up at all, here’s what Chicago gave up to go up one spot, the 3rd pick in the draft, 2 3rd round picks, and a 4th. Mitch Trubisky did not have his 5th-year option picked up last offseason, and he’s a free agent. My point in this one is San Fransisco was able to use one of the draft assets that they got from the Chicago trade to trade back into the first round to draft a player they like. It happened to be Alabama Linebacker Reuben Foster out of Alabama. Sure, Foster had off-the-field troubles, but the point is it gives you that flexibility to take more chances. Not every asset that a team obtains is going to hit the bullseye on a dartboard. Here’s one thing that San Francisco did as well with that pick that they obtained with Chicago, they traded the 67th pick that they got from Chicago to New Orleans. Who did the Saints pick up? Running back Alvin Kamara in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick and a 2017 7th. Although San Francisco turned trading back one spot into multiple trades, the trades did not all hit. The 3rd pick in the 2017 draft was Solomon Thomas is not even the best defensive lineman on their team, but he is still part of what they’re building there in San Francisco. Though the picks and trades in this specific scenario were not the best, it also let them be more aggressive, where they traded from 59 to 44 in 2018 with the asset they got from New Orleans to draft Dante Pettis. He is no longer on the team, but again, this helps a team be better positioned to take more risks. So a team can recover better. I mean, the Niners were just in the Super Bowl a little over a year ago.
Again, don’t expect Miami to trade up to 2 at all.
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2018: This one is my favorite. The New York Jets trade up from number 6 to number 3 overall, ending up picking Quarterback Sam Darnold out of USC. What did the Colts get in return? The 6th overall pick resulted in Guard Quinton Nelson out of Notre Dame, who is considered one of the best offensive guards in the NFL, in addition to 3 2nd round picks(2 in 2018, 1 in 2019). Indianapolis drafted another guard in Braden Smith to solidify the offensive line with one of the 2nd round picks from the Jets. Now Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Sure, Anthony Costanzo retired, but they are not in the position with their offensive line when Andrew Luck was in the league. Indianapolis, with their 49th pick, traded that back to gain a 5th round pick from Philadelphia. The New York Jets were not a great team in 2018, so that 2nd round pick that Indianapolis got from them turned into the second pick of the 2nd round, where they took Cornerback Rock Ya-sin out of Temple. Ya-sin has played 13 games or more in his first two seasons, so he’s available for the most part and has recorded 2 ints in 2 seasons. Although he does not always start, it seems that he will be a part of what Indianapolis is building, and that’s what gaining assets do. What is going on with Sam Darnold? Well, the Jets are coming off a 2-14 season where they start 0-13. Now with the 2nd overall pick in the 2021 draft, the New York Jets are considering whether to take a Quarterback with that pick with Joe Douglas coming into the mix the last offseason and the Jets hiring San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh as the head coach, it seems as if they want to get their guy. Will it be this year that they get him? Will they draft Peneii Sewell at 2 to play opposite of Mekhi Becton and look at Quarterback’s next year? Will they take Quarterback Zach Wilson of BYU or Justin Fields out of Ohio State? Regardless, Sam Darnold’s 5th-year option should not be expected to be picked up. If they decline to pick a Quarterback, this could be that “prove it” year for the former number 3 overall pick, but as of right now, it seems the Jets are the losers of this trade.
Who has the 6th overall pick in this year’s draft? The Philadelphia Eagles traded their former number 2 overall pick from the 2016 draft in Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts. Now they’re either going to have Jalen Hurts start the 2021 season and draft a quarterback in the later rounds and then address it next year? Or do they draft Justin Fields at 6 to create competition with Hurts? Do they draft an offensive tackle or a wide receiver? The Eagles finished 4-11-1 last season, so they need to gain assets, not give up assets, so I am not anticipating a trade with Philadelphia.
Many things to consider as to what Miami could get in return for trading back from the number 3 overall pick, but history in life(and in sports) at times repeats itself, so what Miami could get in a return could be similar to what these other teams got in a trade-in recent years.