What if I told you…
… That the Dolphins’ season isn’t over?
Playoff-wise, it probably is. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Dolphins have a 14% chance of making it to the postseason. So at this point, playoffs are probably not in the cards.
And as far as competing within the AFC East, that dream is also over. It doesn’t matter that the Jets aren’t great and Miami beat New England in week one because the Bills have the look of an absolute juggernaut right now. They’ve got a stranglehold on the division as well as a berth in the AFC Championship game at this point in the season.
So how in the world is Miami’s season not completely moot at this point after a brutal 1-4 start?
Put simply, because the Dolphins should get their quarterback this week.
I don’t mean this in the sense that Tua will return and all of Miami’s problems will magically go away. I mean this in the sense that the MOST IMPORTANT evaluation to be made this season — deciding whether or not Tua Tagovailoa is your quarterback of the future — is back on starting Sunday.
That’s what matters most. That’s why the season isn’t over.
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If Miami wants to get back to winning Super Bowls and being perennial playoff contenders, it all starts with finding their next Dan Marino. Can Tua be that guy? He’s got twelve more games this season to try and prove it.
The offensive line must improve and the defense has to be more than the shell of what it was last year to field a winning product the rest of the way, but having Tua back means that the team you’ll see in London against the Jags this week is essentially the team that was supposed to make noise this year.
(Minus Will Fuller, but we’ll not kick the guy while he’s down).
Tua isn’t dropping into an ideal situation given the team’s struggles and he only has a short window of time to prove himself, but he’s now back at the helm to show what he can do. With that in mind, let’s jump into this week’s edition of FIRST AND FIN.
Week Five Recap: 45-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you were expecting a win last week then bless your heart because that means despite this franchise’s best efforts, you’re still an optimist.
That doesn’t mean there weren’t some small signs of life, however. The game was competitive more or less through three quarters, with Myles Gaskin recording two touchdowns and inhaling passes all around the field while the offensive line did a decent job of keeping Jacoby Brissett upright. Brissett also played his best game of the season, throwing for 275 yards on 27 completions to go along with 2 scores. He did throw an interception, but that came from a pass that bounced off of Jaylen Waddle’s hands.
So things were pretty alright for a decent time.
It was in the fourth quarter that the wheels fell off in spectacular fashion.
The defense hadn’t been great all day — Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard, two of Miami’s centerpieces, both struggled mightily — but what we witnessed near the end of regulation was jaw-dropping. One second it was a one-score game, 24-17, and the next it was 45-17 with a decent while left in the fourth quarter.
The Dolphins surrendered 21 points in the final frame, and on the day gave up 558 total yards.
That’s a lot, for those of you keeping track at home.
For kicks, here’s a fun/depressing stat: it would take the Dolphins almost a full season’s worth of games to rush for as many yards as the Bucs racked up on Sunday alone if Miami rushed every week for the same amount of yards they collected on the ground in Tampa. The Dolphins had 39 rushing yards to Tampa’s 558 total yards.
Oof.
Alarm bells are going off around the league concerning Miami, and I’m not one to sugarcoat things and tell you that everything’s peachy. This defense, by far the team’s greatest asset last season, is showing serious, serious warts as of now. And the offense? It improved Sunday, but when scoring 17 points means improvement something is still wrong.
If there’s a time to get right, however, it would be this week against the Jaguars. We all knew Miami’s schedule to open the season was tough. Now, the softer stretch begins. Let’s see if Flores can stop the bleeding with his starting quarterback back in action against a struggling Jags team.
Main Storylines coming out of Practice:
— Tua Tagovailoa is expected to play Sunday: This is far and away from the biggest news of the week. Tua should be back in action barring any setbacks.
— Flores on the offensive line: For now, it sounds like the head coach would like to see if the current arrangement of Eichenberg-Jackson-Mancz-Hunt-Davis can work and grow together. The experiment continues.
— Urban Meyer is still a dirtbag: Not a note from Dolphins practice, but since last week’s hullabaloo from Meyer’s exploits at a bar with a young woman has died down I wanted to remind everyone of the fact (I bet his family is rooting for the Dolphins this week). Speaking of Urban Meyer…
Week Six Preview: In London Against the Jaguars
While I’m not yet buying that the sky is totally falling in Miami, a loss to the Jags would probably do it. So let’s not lose! Easy enough, right? It’s the Jaguars, after all.
Generally speaking, yes, this game is very winnable. But Miami also matched up well with the Colts on paper just two weeks ago, and we know how that ended. So let’s not rest on our laurels here. A win is vital for Flores and Grier alike, and would be such a lift for that locker room.
Regarding Urban Meyer’s 0-5 squad, they tend to struggle both offensive and defensively. Normally I’d make fun of a team like this, but Miami this year is making it awful tough to throw stones so we’ll keep this civil (except for where Meyer himself is concerned…).
The Jags rank 28th with 18.6 points per game and 21st in total yards per game. The Dolphins rank 31st in both of those categories for comparison.
Defensively Jacksonville ranks 29th by giving up 30.4 points per game and 28th in yards allowed per game. Miami ranks 30th in, again, both of those categories.
I want to make fun of the Jaguars so, so badly, but looking at Miami’s numbers I just can’t without kicking sand in our own faces.
So will this game be a high-scoring affair because of terrible defenses? Will it be a low-scoring slug-fest because of anemic offenses? Who knows! But when two bad teams get together, weird stuff happens so be ready for anything. Urban Meyer might even end up under center since he seems to like it so much there (sorry, not sorry).
On a serious note with the Jags, the two things they do well are run the ball and limit their opponent’s yards per carry. Miami’s rushing defense has been thoroughly average this year thanks to uninspiring linebacker play, so keep an eye on how Flores responds to a rushing attack led by talented running back James Robinson. Offensively for Miami, trying to overcome Jacksonville’s 8th-ranked yards per carry defense should be a priority to give Tua some support.
X-Factor for the Week: Getting back to Miami’s defensive identity
I was tempted to put Tua down here, but the reality is that he may be shaking off some rust and might not be 100%. His formal audition starts Sunday so every start is crucial, but there are bigger games for him ahead.
Instead, how about the defense?
What in the world is happening?
Regression has been the theme this year, with stalwarts from last seasonlike Jerome Baker, Elandon Roberts, Eric Rowe, Andrew Van Ginkel, and even Xavien Howard struggling or dealing with uneven play this far.
The defensive line has played well compared to the rest of this unit, but that’s about where the optimism ends. Flores’ unit has been friendlier to opposing offenses than Urban Meyer is to women he’s not even married to (okay, okay, I’m done).
Normally in my X-Factor I’d target something specific like the third down defense, the turnover margin, or certain matchups. But this week? Let’s keep it simple and just fix the defense. Hold the Jags to less than 20 points maybe, get some sacks, some turnovers, some favorable field position for an offense that needs to find its legs.
We need to see improvement on defense, and it has to come this week against the league’s 28th-ranked offense.
Tua may be back and they may be a lift for the team but for Flores’ sake, let’s get the unit that’s supposed to be his pride and joy back on track. This Sunday, it’s time to get right.
Tweet of the Week: Same Hamstrings, Different Season
DeVante Parker’s hamstring showing up on the injury report every year: pic.twitter.com/7UsBN4y7P1
— Locked On Dolphins (@LockedOnPhins) October 13, 2021
While undeniably talented, DeVante Parker’s injury history continues to plague this Dolphins offense. He’s out once again on Sunday. As a room, the wide receivers have red flags galore in terms of availability.
Regardless, I can finally say this with confidence this season: give me the Fins this Sunday, and let’s hope we make it ugly so Urban Meyer ends up with a long, cold flight back to the states ahead of him.
(Thanks for reading! For more Dolphins content give me a follow on Twitter @EvanMorris72)