The Dolphins are in the midst of an organizational referendum. The team’s terrible 1-7 start to the season has raised a lot of questions about the architects behind the current team’s construction. 

I’ve aired my concerns about the coaching staff already, and why I think this was all doomed from the start regardless of what happens the rest of the season. However, that narrative largely ignores General Manager Chris Grier and his role in the current state of the Dolphins. 

Taking on the task of evaluating every move a general manager has ever made is a fool’s endeavor. Instead, I’m going to focus on answering a single simple question. 

Is Chris Grier good at drafting football players? 

Chris Grier has been the Dolphins’ GM since 2016, which is a fair amount of time. Yes, Mike Tannenbaum was above him in the totem pole for two seasons, but Grier is largely credited with having control of the war room starting in 2016 when he was promoted to general manager.

I’ve decided to analyze and put every pick the Dolphins have made since 2016 into a category based on the player’s performance and count up the hits and misses. 

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Here are the categories: 

Hit: The player is good. They don’t have to be on the team still. 

Miss: The player didn’t live up to their draft position or straight up busted. 

Jury is out: It’s too soon to judge this player yet, and they are not leaning positively or negatively. 

Jury is out (positive): It’s too soon to judge this player, but the early returns are positive. 

Jury is out (negative): It’s too soon to judge this player, but the early returns are negative. 

 

The different “Jury is out” categories allow for some nuance. I’m also going to calculate the results as a whole and break them down round by round. A hit in the seventh round shouldn’t make up for a miss in the first round. This way, it’ll be discernible how Grier fared in every round of the draft. 

This system isn’t perfect. It doesn’t account for trades, and the player’s placement in the categories is highly subjective. It doesn’t account for other players on the board when Miami picked either. With that said, this should still provide some needed context on Miami’s GM. 

This isn’t an exact science, and this is not meant to serve as gospel when talking about draft evaluation. Instead, I’m just hoping it will add some context to the conversation surrounding Grier’s resume. 

The prevailing narrative amongst Dolphins fans is Chris Grier can’t draft, and I don’t just think that is true. Let’s first layout and analyze the picks. 

The explanations for these picks are pretty long. If you want to skip to the findings and conclusions, there will be subheads for those. 

 

2016 Draft: 

Round One, Pick 13: Laremy Tunsil, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: This one is pretty easy. Tunsil’s draft story is one of the craziest in recent memory, as a video of him smoking a bong out of a gas mask allowed the Dolphins to get on the draft’s best players at pick 13. Tunsil was in free fall down the board, and Grier deserves credit for pulling the trigger. 

Tunsil was a tremendous guard during his rookie season and quickly developed into an outstanding tackle. Say what you want about the trade; Tunsil is a good player. 

 

Round Two, Pick 37: Xavien Howard, Cornerback, Baylor

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: This is another home run, even more so given Howard is still on the team. Heck, he made a game-sealing fumble return for a touchdown against the Ravens just last week. Getting an All-Pro caliber cornerback who impacts the game with turnovers as frequently as Howard does in the second round is wildly impressive. 

Round Three, Pick 73: Kenyan Drake, Running Back, Alabama 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: This is a bit closer than the previous two, but I think Drake largely had a successful career for a third-round pick. He’s struggled with injuries throughout his career, but when he was on the field for the Dolphins, he was a pretty solid playmaker. 

I imagine most Dolphins fans would kill for “prime” Kenyan Drake right now, and how can anyone forget the Miami Miracle play. He’s just a solid player, but that’s what a third-round pick should be. 

 

Round Three, Pick 86: Leonte Carroo, Wide Receiver, Rutgers 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: This is one of the bigger misses on Grier’s resume. Miami traded back into the third round to select Carroo, and he amounted to basically nothing. Carroo accounted for 192 yards and two touchdowns in three seasons. 

 

Round Six, Pick 186: Jakeem Grant, Wide Receiver, Texas Tech

Verdict: Hit

Analysis: I imagine I’ll get some pushback on this, but for a sixth-round pick, Grant’s career is undoubtedly a success. Most sixth-round picks don’t make it more than three years in the league, and Grant did make an All-Pro as a returner, which isn’t something most sixth-round picks can say. 

Grant overstayed his welcome in Miami, but his production for a player drafted so late is still a hit regardless of his faults. 

 

Round Six, Pick 204: Jordan Lucas, Cornerback, Penn State 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Lucas spent two seasons in Miami and rarely saw the field. He got some playing time for the Chiefs after he left Miami, but he even struggled there outside of a couple of splash plays. He’s now on Indianapolis’ roster. 

Lucas deserves credit for sticking around this long, but his career hasn’t amounted to much. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 223: Brandon Doughty, Quarterback, Western Kentucky 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Doughty never saw NFL regular-season action and hasn’t been on an NFL roster since 2018 with Arizona. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 231: Thomas Durante, Tight End, UCLA 

Verdict: Miss

Analysis: Durante has two career snaps and hasn’t been on an NFL roster since 2019. 

 

2017 Draft: 

Round One, Pick 22: Charles Harris, EDGE, Missouri 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Harris has bounced around the league and made a couple of splash plays, but he’s nowhere close to living up to where Grier drafted him in 2017. Miami hasn’t had a franchise pass rusher since Cameron Wake’s prime, and Harris was supposed to be the next guy in line. 

He wasn’t. 

Round Two, Pick 54: Raekwon McMillian, Linebacker, Ohio State 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: I struggled with this one a little bit because McMillian isn’t a “bad” player per se. He’s just limited. I settled on “miss” because I think if you’re drafting a linebacker in the second round, you’d like him to play more than two seasons for your team. 

 

Round Three, Pick 97: Cordrea Tankersley, Cornerback, Clemson 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Tankersley’s career is one of the weirdest ones in recent years. He burst onto the scene with an impressive rookie season, and then his play immediately fell off a cliff. He stuck around with Miami until 2020 but stopped making an impact in 2017. 

 

Round Five, Pick 164: Isaac Asiata, IOL, Utah

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Asiata never started a game for the Dolphins and now works as a police officer. 

 

Round Five, Pick 178: Davon Godchaux, Defensive Tackle, LSU 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: Godchaux started in 42 games across four seasons for the Miami Dolphins. He didn’t stuff the stat sheet, but for a fifth-round pick, his run defense was pretty solid. Getting a good rotational player in the fifth round is pretty good value. 

 

Round Six, Pick 194: Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma State 

Verdict: Miss

Analysis: This was a tough one too. Taylor has stuck around in the NFL for five seasons despite being a sixth-round pick. However, just two of those were with Miami, and he hasn’t done much despite sticking on Buffalo’s and Houston’s roster after Miami. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 237: Isaiah Ford, Wide Receiver, Virginia Tech 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: Ford might outlive us all. He’s been bouncing around Miami’s roster and practice squad since he was drafted. A seventh-round pick sticking around this long and still making an impact in games like Ford did against the Ravens is unquestionably a hit. 

 

2018 Draft: 

Round One, Pick 11: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Safety, Alabama 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: I know Dolphins’ fans hate him because of the way he left the team, but he’s undoubtedly a good football player. Was he the best pick at the time? I mean maybe not, but just imagine him on this defense right now with Jevon Holland. Anytime you draft an All-Pro player, it is a hit. 

Round Two, Pick 42: Mike Gesicki, Tight End, Penn State 

Verdict: Hit

Analysis: Do I need to explain this one? Gesicki has been the team’s most consistent receiving threat for the past three seasons. Please give this man a new contract. 

 

Round Three, Pick 73: Jerome Baker, Linebacker, Ohio State 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: I have my gripes with Baker’s play, especially this season. However, he’s a solid NFL starter who frequently stuffs the stat sheet for a team that needs to add more speed like his at the second level. Baker isn’t perfect, but teams would take a player of his caliber in the third round every time if they could. 

 

Round Four, Pick 123: Durham Smythe, Tight End, Notre Dame 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: This is a tough one because Smythe is still on the team and is still technically producing. However, I’d argue he’s one of the worst blocking tight ends in football and that he really shouldn’t be getting reps over Adam Shaheen and Hunter Long anyway. This was a weird pick at the time, and it remains a weird pick today. 

 

Round Four, Pick 131: Kallen Ballage, Running Back, Arizona State 

Verdict: Miss

Analysis: Not sure this one needs much explanation either. Ballage got plenty of chances in Miami, and he underperformed so badly, he became a meme. 

 

Round Six, Pick 209: Cornell Armstrong, Cornerback, Southern Mississippi

Verdict: Miss

Analysis: Armstrong played just 83 snaps for the Dolphins in 2018 and then moved on to Houston. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 227: Quentin Poling, Linebacker, Ohio 

Verdict: Miss

Analysis: Poling has bounced around a lot since 2018, but he never saw the field in Miami or anywhere else. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 229: Jason Sanders, Kicker, New Mexico 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: This is yet another All-Pro selection by Chris Grier. Former special teams coach Darren Rizzi, reportedly had a lot to do with this selection, but Grier is still the guy who pulled the trigger. 

2019 Draft

Round One, Pick 13: Christian Wilkins, Defensive Tackle, Clemson 

Verdict: Jury is out (positive)

Analysis: I went back and forth on this one for a while, but I think this is the right call. Wilkins is having a career year in 2021, but his play up to this point was pretty underwhelming. I’d argue that even Wilkins’ numbers from this season aren’t good enough to warrant a top-15 selection. 

Top-50? Sure. First-round was always rich for my blood unless Wilkins became a true game wrecker. He’s good but not that good yet.

 

Round Three, Pick 78: Michael Dieter, Offensive Guard, Wisconsin 

Verdict: Jury is out (negative)

Analysis: Dieter was expected to come in and provide some stability at Miami’s guard position. That didn’t happen after a rough rookie season leading to his benching in 2020. Dieter looked like a passable center this season, but his injury has kept him off the field. I’m not quite ready to call this a miss, but it’s about as close as you can get. 

 

Round Five, Pick 131: Andrew Van Ginkel, Linebacker, Wisconsin 

Verdict: Hit

Analysis: For a fifth-round pick, I think it is fair to call Van Ginkel a hit for the Dolphins. He’s given them passable play for a couple of years now. With that said, please stop dropping him in coverage. He looks like a traffic cone out there. 

 

Round Six, Pick 202: Isaiah Prince, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Prince never earned a starting spot for the Dolphins, and he only played on special teams. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 233: Chandler Cox, Full Back, Auburn 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Cox got some playing time, but he was largely fazed out for Durham Smythe and now Cethan Carter. Miami released him in January, and nobody picked him up. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 234: Myles Gaskin, Running Back, Washington

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: Gaskin might not be the long-term answer at running back, but for a seventh-round pick, he’s produced quite well. Gaskin is a solid pass catcher and a good change of pace back on any team.

2020 Draft

Round One, Pick Five: Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Alabama 

Verdict: Jury is out 

Analysis: I’m going to write another long-form article breaking down Tua in depth at the end of the season, so I’m not going to argue one way or another here. He’s still got plenty to prove, but there is no reason to write him off. 

 

Round One, Pick 18: Austin Jackson, Offensive Guard, USC 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Jackson might be legitimately the worst starting offensive lineman in the NFL. He’s a turnstile at both guard and tackle. For a top-20 pick, that just isn’t going to fly. I hate calling a second-year player a miss already, but Jackson has shown almost nothing to get excited about. 

 

Round One, Pick 30: Noah Igbinoghene, Cornerback, Auburn 

Verdict: Jury is out (negative)

Analysis: Igbinoghene has been inactive for most games this season thanks to the Dolphins’ jaded view of their own team and strong cornerback room. That is obviously pretty bad for a player who also struggled his rookie year. 

Igbinoghene’s only saving grace is that he hasn’t been absolutely horrible when on the field. He struggled as a rookie but had a couple of splash plays. It’s only year two, but if nothing changes next year, this is another first-round miss. 

 

Round Two, Pick 39: Robert Hunt, Offensive Guard, Louisiana

Verdict: Jury is out

Analysis: Hunt has definitely underperformed for a top-40 pick thus far. However, he’s probably the team’s best offensive lineman and is probably still getting used to playing guard again. I would say Hunt’s development goes either way at this point, which is why he’s just a regular “Jury is out.” 

 

Round Two, Pick 56: Raekwon Davis, Defensive Tackle, Alabama 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: Davis has made himself into a really nice rotational piece on the Dolphins defensive line. I’d argue this is still high to select a player of his skill set, but that is splitting hairs, and he’s been pretty good so far. 

 

Round Three, Pick 70: Brandon Jones, Safety, Texas

Verdict: Jury is out (positive) 

Analysis: Jones is really starting to come on this season. He’s a solid run defender and a very good Blitzer, making him one of the team’s better role players. The only reason I’m not calling this a hit is that his rookie season was pretty average. I just want to see more proof of concept with Jones, but he’s on the right track. 

Round Four, Pick 111: Solomon Kindley, Offensive Guard, Georgia 

Verdict: Jury is out (negative)

Analysis: Kindley got off to a hot start as a rookie, but he eventually fizzled out and has now lost his starting job. The only reason I’m not writing him off just yet is that there is evidence of passable play on his film. With that said, him not being able to win a spot on this line is incredibly concerning. 

 

Round Five, Pick 154: Jason Strowbridge, Defensive Lineman, North Carolina 

Verdict: Jury is out

Analysis: Strowbridge is currently on Miami’s practice squad. He hasn’t played much, so calling him a miss at this point seems harsh, but he needs to make the active roster next season. 

 

Round Five, Pick 184: Curtis Weaver, EDGE, Boise State

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Weaver was cut by the Dolphins before the 2020 season. Anytime you cut a draft pick before he plays a game for you, it’s a miss. 

 

Round Six, Pick 185: Blake Ferguson, Long Snapper, LSU 

Verdict: Hit 

Analysis: I struggled with this one too. I’d argue drafting a long snapper is ridiculous, but Ferguson is technically a contributing player as a sixth-round pick, so I’ll say this is a hit. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 246: Malcolm Perry, Running Back/ Wide Receiver, Navy 

Verdict: Miss 

Analysis: Perry got some looks last season in different packages, but he didn’t really account for much production. He’s also not on the team anymore. 

 

2021 Draft

Round One, Pick 6: Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Alabama 

Verdict: Hit

Analysis: Complain about the trade value all you want; Waddle is a damn good football player. Assuming Miami actually figures out a way to throw the ball down the field at some point, I think Waddle assuages some of the concerns over trade value. 

 

Round One, Pick 18: Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Verdict: Jury is out (positive) 

Analysis: Unlike Waddle, Phillips hasn’t had quite the same immediate impact. However, he’s already shown some incredibly positive flashes making me comfortable saying he’s trending in the right direction. 

Round Two, Pick 36: Jevon Holland, Safety, Oregon 

Verdict: Hit

Analysis: Yea, I’ll eat crow on this one. Holland is much better than I expected. I still don’t love him in deep zones, but he’s been good enough back there and is an exceptional player in the box. 

 

Round Two, Pick 42: Liam Eichenberg, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

Verdict: Jury is out (negative)

Analysis: Eichenberg hasn’t been done any favors by this staff, but he’s struggled mightily this season. I’m holding out hope that he gets comfortable at left tackle in the coming weeks and finishes strong. Early returns on this are pretty bad though. 

 

Round Three, Pick 82: Hunter Long, Tight End, Boston College 

Verdict: Jury is out 

Analysis: Long is another player who can’t get active because of the Dolphins’ misguided view of their own team. I’m not calling this a miss yet because Long hasn’t even gotten a chance to really prove himself on the field. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 231: Larnell Coleman, Offensive Tackle, UMass

Verdict: Jury is out 

Analysis: Coleman is currently on IR. I imagine he would’ve made the practice squad, but there isn’t enough information to make a call on this one yet. 

 

Round Seven, Pick 244: Gerrid Doaks, Running Back, Cincinnati

Verdict: Jury is out 

Analysis: Same thing as Coleman here. Doaks is sitting on Miami’s practice squad. 

 

The Raw Data: 

 

Overall Numbers: 

Hits: 16/47

Miss: 18/47

Jury Out: 6/47

Jury Out Positive: 3/47

Jury Out Negative: 4/47

 

First Round: 

Hits: 3/9 

Miss: 2/9 

Jury Out: 1/9 

Jury Out Positive: 2/9 

Jury Out Negative: 1/9 

 

Second and Third Rounds: 

Hit: 6/14 

Miss: 3/14

Jury Out: 2/14

Jury Out Positive: 1/14

Jury Out Negative: 2/14

 

Rounds Four – Seven: 

Hit: 7/24

Miss: 13/24

Jury Out: 3/24

Jury Out Positive: 0/24 

Jury Out Negative: 1/24 

 

Weighted Scale: 

Since not all picks are created equal, I decided to come up with a completely arbitrary scale to determine a weighted hit percentage for Grier’s picks. Basically, I adopted the scale to make misses and hits in the first round count for more than misses and hits in the lower rounds. 

First-round picks were weighted at 45 percent, second and third-round picks were weighted at 35 percent, and fourth through seventh-round picks were weighted at 20 percent. Again, this is not an exact science. Second and third-round picks probably shouldn’t be weighted the same, but for the sake of simplicity, I felt it was easier to group them by draft day instead of individual rounds.

Here’s how the numbers shook out: 

Weighted Hit Percentage only using “Hits”: 35.70 

Weighted Hit Percentage including “Jury Out Positives” with “Hits”: 48.50

Assuming players I think are going to have good NFL careers stay on their current trajectory, Grier’s hit percentage is actually pretty good. The common thinking is if you’re hitting on 50 percent of picks, you’re doing a good job as a general manager. This also just goes to show how thin the line is between a bad general manager and an average one. There were only three players I marked as “jury out positives,” but since two of them were first-round picks — Wilkins and Phillips — they made a big difference. 

48.50 percent isn’t groundbreaking, but it is not too bad either. 

 

Conclusions: 

So, what does all of this mean? I set out to answer whether or not Chris Grier drafts good football players, and after working through this, I think the answer is yes. 

Does that mean I think Grier should stick around if the team moves on from Flores? No. However, if Flores stays, I would stick with Grier as the general manager. 

The calls for Grier’s job have lessened in recent weeks, as the team has ripped off four straight wins. When I started writing this article, Miami was 1-7. Now, they are 5-7 with two winnable games ahead of them. 

There are a few reasons why I’d still move on from Grier if Flores is fired. 

Firstly, I’m not a fan of half measures. If you’re going to fire the coach, then just clean house. Grier already got his in-house promotion. I think he’s better than Dolphins’ fans give him credit for, but letting him stay again would be a mistake. 

Secondly,  this only touches on Grier’s draft history. Free agency and trades are a big part of being a general manager, and I didn’t add those to the equation.

Lastly, the 2020 draft is a relative disaster. Miami had four picks in the top-50, and none of them look like sure-fire hits. Tua is trending in the right direction, recently, and Hunt has some potential but missing on Jackson and Igbinoghene has set the franchise back. 

With all of that said, Miami could do a lot worse than Chris Grier when it comes to drafting. He can clearly identify talent at all three levels of the draft. He’s not perfect or elite, but he’s done a solid job for a number of years now. 

Miami’s inability to draft under Grier has gotten blown out of proportion because of a couple of missed picks in 2020. Next time you want to call for Grier’s job on Twitter, just remember his body of work. It might be time for a change, but that doesn’t mean Grier doesn’t know how to scout.