Since everyone is so lazy… SURE, fine, I’ll figure it out:
What are the odds the Dolphins make the playoffs?
Obviously, the trouble is, nearly the entire AFC is in the hunt (lol), and there are only seven spots to distribute. But let’s take a look.
The Method
To predict the final AFC standings, I will be evaluating each remaining game for every AFC contender. I will then be assigning each matchup with 1 of 3 designations:
- ‘1’ which means I believe the team in question will most likely win
- ‘0.5’ designates a game that is a coinflip
- ‘0’ most likely a loss for the team in question
This experiment can only work, however, with one major caveat:
***I will be assuming that the Dolphins win-out***
[pickup_prop id=”13635″]
The Island of Discarded Toys
Before we begin, I would like to rule out two AFC teams who are *technically* in the hunt partly because I’m lazy and partly because there is no way in hell they make the playoffs.
First off:
Browns (6-6)
It’s been ugly for the actor/part-time QB Baker Mayfield. And good news, it gets much, much worse! The final five games are the toughest slate for any team in the entire NFL (64% opp. win percentage). Ravens, Raiders, Packers, Steelers, Bengals – and you’re telling me this team is gonna go 4-1 in this span?! No wayyyyyyyyyy.
AND lastly:
Steelers (5-5-1)
Remember how Big Ben was bad last season but their defense was so dominant that they won a lot of games? Well, that is no longer the case. Now, the defense ranks 23rd in the league, AND Big Ben is still bad at football. And did I mention that their strength-of-schedule to finish the season is the second toughest in the league (just behind the Browns at 62%)? Their final 5 are Vikings, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens. They can only lose one more game… but I see about 4 in there…
The Pudding
- Ravens 8-3
- @Steelers – 1
- @Browns – 1
- Packers – 0
- @Bengals – 0.5
- Rams – 0.5
- Steelers – 1
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 12
- Pats 8-4
- @Bills – 0.5
- @Colts – 0.5
- Bills – 0.5
- Jags – 1
- @Dolphins – 0 (the caveat!)
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 10.5
- Titans 8-4
-
- Jags – 1
- @Steelers – 1
- 49ers – 0.5
- Dolphins – 0 (the caveat!)
- @Texans – 1
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 11.5
- Chiefs 7-4
- Broncos – 1
- Raiders – 1
- @Chargers – 0.5
- Steelers – 1
- @Bengals – 0.5
- @Broncos – 0.5
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 11.5
- Bengals 7-4
- Chargers – 1
- 49ers – 0.5
- @Broncos – 0.5
- Ravens – 0.5
- Chiefs – 0.5
- @Browns – 1
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 11
- Bills 7-4
- Pats – 0.5
- @Buccs – 0
- Panthers – 1
- @Pats – 0.5
- Falcons – 1
- Jets – 1
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 11
- Chargers 6-5
- @Bengals – 0
- Giants – 1
- Chiefs – 0.5
- @Texans – 1
- Broncos – 0.5
- @Raiders – 0.5
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 9.5
- Broncos 6-5
- @Chiefs – 0
- Lions – 1
- Bengals – 0.5
- @Raiders – 0.5
- @Chargers – 0
- Chiefs – 0.5
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 8.5
- Raiders 6-5
- Washington – 0.5
- @Chiefs – 0
- @Browns – 1
- Broncos – 0.5
- @Colts – 0.5
- Chargers – 0.5
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 9
- Colts 6-6
- @Texans – 1
- Pats – 0.5
- @Cardinals – 0
- Raiders – 0.5
- @Jags – 1
PROJECTED WIN TOTAL: 9
My Predicted Final AFC Standings
- Ravens 12-5
- Chiefs 11.5-5.5
- Titans 11.5-5.5
- Bills 11-6
- Bengals 11-6 (WILDCARD #1)
- Pats 10.5-6.5 (WILDCARD #2)
- Dolphins 10-7 (WILDCARD #3)
- Chargers 9.5-7.5 (MISS PLAYOFFS)
- Colts 9-8 (MISS PLAYOFFS)
- Raiders 9-8 (MISS PLAYOFFS)
- Broncos 8.5-8.5 (MISS PLAYOFFS)
In Conclusion
Don’t let Miami get HOT! There is a real chance the Dolphins make the playoffs if they win out. Yes, the AFC is crowded; yes, the Raiders and Colts are Miami’s daddy in a tie-break scenario; but all these AFC teams play each other nonstop over the next 5 weeks.
So, as long as we don’t see one of these random teams get red-hot and sweep their remaining schedule – and the Dolphins continue to feast – they have an easy path to the 7th seed in the AFC.
What would they say about Tua then?
We can dream, sure. But another 5 in a row after these past 4 for total of 9 in a row ? Really now, pass me some of that good smokin’ stuff you have been enjoying. While sure, the next two games are winnable to go to 7-7, the Saints won’t be a cakewalk playing at home. Even without a QB, they have good players and a very good coach. Tenn at home is a bad game for Phins, unless, Derrick Henry is still out, then there is a chance to make Tannehill remember the Phins in a bad way. I think Phins split these two games. The last game of the year is the key. Revenge factor looms big for Belichick vs Flores, who has beat him now 3 of the last 4 games and this game will mean something for Pats, even if they are already in the playoffs. So, Flores must come up with some defensive scheme to rattle Mac & Cheese and stop the Pats. I say 9-8 is a good chance to end up for Phins. Playoffs probably not, unless they get tons of help. When have they gotten “tons of help” ? Last time I recall was 1995 when they snuck in the playoffs like 9-7 and beat the Bills, finally, at home. Thank you Trace Armstrong, wherever you are !