It is not easy to predict the outcome of a football game before the competing teams get into the field for action. The fun in watching a football game is in not knowing in advance who the winner will be. The fun is to patiently watch until the winner is announced after the game is over.Â
Although you might be skeptical, having a clue about who might win could add a big measure of fun too. Skilled mathematicians have used various math concepts in the past to predict the outcomes of a football game. In some instances, the predictions have turned out to be wrong, but, in many cases, they were accurate.Â
The concept of probabilities in mathÂ
In a game event, two things happen – there is a winner and a loser. At the start of an NFL game, both opposing teams have equal opportunities to become the winner. The actions and judgments of each team from the time the starting whistle blows to the finishing time determine who takes home the day’s victory.
A mathematician can use the concept of probability to predict which team will win regardless of how well each team plays the game. For example, when you throw six-sided dice, the probability that a number shall win is 6 parts. It could be numbers 1,2,3,4,5, or 6. These numbers present the likelihood of any of them winning, which is 1/6.
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The concept of probabilities in predicting the result of an NFL football game
The same concept applies in football, but since there are no numbers yet for an upcoming NFL football game, numbers from past events are used instead. For example, let us assume there is an upcoming game, and the competing teams will be Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and Chicago Bears.
First, get the results of past games, which could be something like this-
0-1
1-2
3-1
2-1
Next, take the average of goals for the teams like this –
First team 0+1+3+2 = 6/4 = 1.5 goals
For the second team, their average goals are 1+2+1+1 = 5/4 = 1.25 goals.
You already have an accurate prediction that the goals shall be 1.5 – 1.25 goals.
You can round off the outcome to a whole number and predict the goals as 2-1. You have taken 2 for the first team because the decimal is at 0.5, which can the rounded off to the next whole number 2. This is a prediction based on the average outcome of one game but if you want a more scientific prediction, use statistical data.
Using statistical data in predicting the result of an NFL football game
When using statistics, you use results from big data. Retrieve data for the four teams and backdate it to the last 10 to 20 years. Your model at this point shall be complex, and you might need an application to get the most accurate probability. The concept is just like the probability concept. The only difference is the big data involved in the statistics concept.Â
You can apply multiple statistical concepts to calculate a more precise measurement, variances, or typical deviations. Some of the concepts to use are variance and standard deviation, distribution, random variables/ expected value, etc.Â
Statistical data could have its limits, too when predicting the outcome of a football game. The historical data calculates the strengths of the teams based on the total goals for each team per game. If the team was a performer in the past, statistics would predict the team as a strong team and vice versa.
Things on the ground might have considerably changed 5 years or more down the line. The team could have a new breed of players that have mastered the game better. If all the conditions remain unchanged, the prediction could be 95% accurate, but if the conditions have significantly changed, the accuracy of the prediction falls. It could fall to below 60%. In the past, most of the predictions have an average accuracy of 85% and above.Â
Conclusion
The greatest exciting part of an NFL game is at the end of the game when the winners are announced. At the start of the game, it might be impossible to predict who the winner will be or the results of the game. However, expert mathematicians have developed formulas that help to give an accurate outcome of a game. The most widely applied concept is the concept of probability used to calculate the average goals from a past game. To make the prediction more detailed, the statistical concept is used instead.Â
