Caesars Sportsbook, the most respected sportsbook in Las Vegas, released their NFL Over/Under win total for the upcoming 2022 season, and they have set the Miami Dolphins at 8.5 wins. In the past two seasons, the Dolphins have won 10 and 9 games, respectively, so the 8.5 is in line with their recent record the past few seasons. The Dolphins’ schedule is more challenging in 2022 than in the last two years, which is a factor in this number being set. Last season the Dolphins played one of the weakest schedules in the NFL, and in 2022 Miami faces many elite quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen (twice), Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson. They also have a west coast trip to play against an elite team in San Francisco and face some up-and-coming young QBs who are showing promising futures like Justin Fields, Davis Mills, and Mac Jones.
The most significant factor in determining how many wins Miami will have in 2022 is the continued development of Tua Tagavolia. If Tua, with a better offensive line, a real running game, and better wide receivers, can raise his game, there is no reason why Miami can’t go over 8.5 wins this upcoming season.
The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had their over/under total set at 11.5, the highest of all the teams entering the season. The Houston Texans’ number was the lowest at 4.5. These numbers will shift and move slightly up and down between now and week 1 of the NFL season based on further trades, free-agent signings, the upcoming draft, and any injuries that occur in training camp and the pre-season. If you believe the “hype” around Miami is real or that the Dolphins will still make another big splash signing/trade, you may want to bet the OVER on Miami winning more than 8.5 wins now before that number, possibly goes up.