I’ll give it to you straight. This win versus the Bills on Sunday was the most important victory for the Dolphins in at least the last 5 years. Not only did they beat a top-2 QB (which I often felt would be impossible with how this defense is constructed), but they also beat the team many believe is the Super Bowl favorite.

But as I always say. If you make a bold claim, you better know how to back it up. So in the spirit of that conviction, I spent hours of my life compiling enough data from the last 5 years of Dolphins football to prove it.

What I found was shocking. 

What I found proves that this Dolphins team is special.

Below, I have listed every single win the Dolphins have accumulated in the past 5 seasons. Also listed with each result is tons of context to prove my point:

LET’S CHECK THE DATA

Year Week Opp Beaten Game Score Opp Record (End of Season) Dolphins Record After Win Opponent QB, QBR Ranking Opponent Power Rankings (ESPN.com in Week 17/18)
2018 1 Titans 27-20 9-7 1-0 Marcus Mariota, 19th 14th
2 Jets 20-12 4-12 2-0 Sam Darnold, 28th 30th
3 Raiders 28-20 4-12 3-0 Derek Carr, 27th 31st
6 Bears 31-28 12-4 4-2 Mitchell Trubisky, 3rd 5th
9 Jets 13-6 4-12 5-4 Sam Darnold, 28th 30th
13 Bills 21-17 6-10 6-6 Josh Allen, 24th 28th
14 Patriots 34-33 11-5 7-6 Tom Brady, 6th 6th
2019 9 Jets 26-18 7-9 1-7 Sam Darnold, 25th 25th
10 Colts 16-12 7-9 2-7 Brian Hoyer, N/A 17th
13 Eagles 37-31 9-7 3-9 Carson Wentz, 11th 13th
16 Bengals 38-35 2-14 4-11 Andy Dalton, 27th 32nd
17 Patriots 27-24 12-4 5-11 Tom Brady, 17th 5th
2020 3 Jaguars 31-13 1-15 1-2 Gardner Minshew, 27th 32nd
5 49ers 43-17 6-10 2-3 Jimmy G, N/A 16th
6 Jets 24-0 2-14 3-3 Joe Flacco, N/A 31st
8 Rams 28-17 10-6 4-3 Jared Goff, 23rd 13th
9 Cardinals 34-31 8-8 5-3 Kyler Murray, 14th 14th
10 Chargers 29-21 7-9 6-3 Justin Herbert, 13th 19th
12 Jets 20-3 2-14 7-4 Sam Darnold, 33rd 31st
13 Bengals 19-7 4-11 8-4 Brandon Allen, N/A 28th
15 Patriots 22-12 7-9 9-5 Cam Newton, 30th 24th
16 Raiders 26-25 8-8 10-5 Derek Carr, 11th 18th
2021 1 Patriots 17-16 10-7 1-0 Mac Jones, 16th 9th
9 Texans 17-9 4-13 2-7 Tyrod Taylor, N/A 28th
10 Ravens 22-10 8-9 3-7 Lamar Jackson, 17th 16th
11 Jets 24-17 4-13 4-7 Joe Flacco, N/A 29th
12 Panthers 33-10 5-12 5-7 Cam Newton, N/A 27th
13 Giants 20-9 4-13 6-7 Daniel Jones, 22nd 30th
15 Jets 31-24 4-13 7-7 Zach Wilson, 30th 29th
16 Saints 20-3 9-8 8-7 Ian Book, N/A 19th
18 Patriots 33-24 10-7 9-8 Mac Jones, 16th 9th
2022 1 Patriots 20-7 1-2 1-0 Mac Jones, 25th 23rd
2 Ravens 42-38 2-1 2-0 Lamar Jackson, 2nd 6th
3 Bills 21-19 2-1 3-0 Josh Allen, 3rd 2nd
TOTALS — 34 wins — 205-308 — — —
AVERAGES — 7.9 — — — 22nd ranked QB 20th ranked team

 

THE SPARKNOTES VERSION

If you read the data close enough (who has time for that?!), only a couple of games stand out to you. As there are only 4 games in the past 5 seasons for the Dolphins where all of these 4 criteria were met:

  1. They beat a team with a winning record
  2. We also had a winning record (therefore the game is important to us)
  3. The team we played has a top-10 QB that year (QBR ESPN)
  4. And the team we beat is ranked top-10 in the power rankings (ESPN)

The first half of these games happened in 2018:

  • Week 6, Dolphins (4-2 after a win) over Bears 31-28, Bears ended the season 12-4 (5th in power rankings), Trubisky 3rd best QBR
    • FUN FACT: This is famously known as the ‘Albert Wilson Game’ where he had 155 yards and 2 TDs
  • Week 14, Dolphins (7-6 after a win) over Patriots 34-33, Bears ended the season 11-5 (6th in power rankings), Brady 6th best QBR
    • FUN FACT: This is the even MORE famous ‘Miami Miracle’ game where Gronk, didn’t in fact, have the angle

Crazy enough, the other half of these games happened in the last 2 weeks:

  • Week 2, Dolphins (2-0 after a win) over Ravens 34-28, Ravens currently 2-1 (6th in power rankings), Jackson 2nd best QBR
  • Week 3, Bills (3-0 after a win) over Bills 21-19, Bills currently 2-1 (2nd in power rankings), Allen 3rd best QBR

To put it plainly: The Dolphins have only won 4 truly impressive games in the past 5 seasons; 2 of which were just this month. 

OTHER DATA THAT TELLS A STORY

Of course, the team has beaten other good teams in this period; but honestly, very few:

  • The 2019 Patriots who finished 12-4
  • The 2020 Rams who finished 10-6

But obviously one of the games was against Jared Goff and the other was during a year we finished 5-11.

To further prove my point about just how many insignificant wins we’ve had over the past 5 seasons, I would like to leave you with more cold hard facts:

  • In an average Dolphins win, they are playing the 22nd best QB in the NFL (QBR ESPN)
    • They are beating the 20th best team in the NFL
  • More than a third (33% plus) of the Dolphins’ victories in the last 5 seasons have been against a bottom-5 team in the league (ESPN Power Rankings)

PUT A BOW ON IT

For half a decade now, the Dolphins have beaten bad teams and lost to good ones. There is no way around it; and that’s why they were stuck in a perpetual 8-8, 7-9 purgatory. But this year, the data is showing us something completely different; something special.

The Dolphins have finally arrived.

And as my grandpa says when his plate is finally filled with Thanksgiving dinner:

“It’s about damn time!”