I’ll give it to you straight. This win versus the Bills on Sunday was the most important victory for the Dolphins in at least the last 5 years. Not only did they beat a top-2 QB (which I often felt would be impossible with how this defense is constructed), but they also beat the team many believe is the Super Bowl favorite.
But as I always say. If you make a bold claim, you better know how to back it up. So in the spirit of that conviction, I spent hours of my life compiling enough data from the last 5 years of Dolphins football to prove it.
What I found was shocking.
What I found proves that this Dolphins team is special.
Below, I have listed every single win the Dolphins have accumulated in the past 5 seasons. Also listed with each result is tons of context to prove my point:
LET’S CHECK THE DATA
Year | Week | Opp Beaten | Game Score | Opp Record (End of Season) | Dolphins Record After Win | Opponent QB, QBR Ranking | Opponent Power Rankings (ESPN.com in Week 17/18) |
2018 | 1 | Titans | 27-20 | 9-7 | 1-0 | Marcus Mariota, 19th | 14th |
2 | Jets | 20-12 | 4-12 | 2-0 | Sam Darnold, 28th | 30th | |
3 | Raiders | 28-20 | 4-12 | 3-0 | Derek Carr, 27th | 31st | |
6 | Bears | 31-28 | 12-4 | 4-2 | Mitchell Trubisky, 3rd | 5th | |
9 | Jets | 13-6 | 4-12 | 5-4 | Sam Darnold, 28th | 30th | |
13 | Bills | 21-17 | 6-10 | 6-6 | Josh Allen, 24th | 28th | |
14 | Patriots | 34-33 | 11-5 | 7-6 | Tom Brady, 6th | 6th | |
2019 | 9 | Jets | 26-18 | 7-9 | 1-7 | Sam Darnold, 25th | 25th |
10 | Colts | 16-12 | 7-9 | 2-7 | Brian Hoyer, N/A | 17th | |
13 | Eagles | 37-31 | 9-7 | 3-9 | Carson Wentz, 11th | 13th | |
16 | Bengals | 38-35 | 2-14 | 4-11 | Andy Dalton, 27th | 32nd | |
17 | Patriots | 27-24 | 12-4 | 5-11 | Tom Brady, 17th | 5th | |
2020 | 3 | Jaguars | 31-13 | 1-15 | 1-2 | Gardner Minshew, 27th | 32nd |
5 | 49ers | 43-17 | 6-10 | 2-3 | Jimmy G, N/A | 16th | |
6 | Jets | 24-0 | 2-14 | 3-3 | Joe Flacco, N/A | 31st | |
8 | Rams | 28-17 | 10-6 | 4-3 | Jared Goff, 23rd | 13th | |
9 | Cardinals | 34-31 | 8-8 | 5-3 | Kyler Murray, 14th | 14th | |
10 | Chargers | 29-21 | 7-9 | 6-3 | Justin Herbert, 13th | 19th | |
12 | Jets | 20-3 | 2-14 | 7-4 | Sam Darnold, 33rd | 31st | |
13 | Bengals | 19-7 | 4-11 | 8-4 | Brandon Allen, N/A | 28th | |
15 | Patriots | 22-12 | 7-9 | 9-5 | Cam Newton, 30th | 24th | |
16 | Raiders | 26-25 | 8-8 | 10-5 | Derek Carr, 11th | 18th | |
2021 | 1 | Patriots | 17-16 | 10-7 | 1-0 | Mac Jones, 16th | 9th |
9 | Texans | 17-9 | 4-13 | 2-7 | Tyrod Taylor, N/A | 28th | |
10 | Ravens | 22-10 | 8-9 | 3-7 | Lamar Jackson, 17th | 16th | |
11 | Jets | 24-17 | 4-13 | 4-7 | Joe Flacco, N/A | 29th | |
12 | Panthers | 33-10 | 5-12 | 5-7 | Cam Newton, N/A | 27th | |
13 | Giants | 20-9 | 4-13 | 6-7 | Daniel Jones, 22nd | 30th | |
15 | Jets | 31-24 | 4-13 | 7-7 | Zach Wilson, 30th | 29th | |
16 | Saints | 20-3 | 9-8 | 8-7 | Ian Book, N/A | 19th | |
18 | Patriots | 33-24 | 10-7 | 9-8 | Mac Jones, 16th | 9th | |
2022 | 1 | Patriots | 20-7 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Mac Jones, 25th | 23rd |
2 | Ravens | 42-38 | 2-1 | 2-0 | Lamar Jackson, 2nd | 6th | |
3 | Bills | 21-19 | 2-1 | 3-0 | Josh Allen, 3rd | 2nd | |
TOTALS | — | 34 wins | — | 205-308 | — | — | — |
AVERAGES | — | 7.9 | — | — | — | 22nd ranked QB | 20th ranked team |
THE SPARKNOTES VERSION
If you read the data close enough (who has time for that?!), only a couple of games stand out to you. As there are only 4 games in the past 5 seasons for the Dolphins where all of these 4 criteria were met:
- They beat a team with a winning record
- We also had a winning record (therefore the game is important to us)
- The team we played has a top-10 QB that year (QBR ESPN)
- And the team we beat is ranked top-10 in the power rankings (ESPN)
The first half of these games happened in 2018:
- Week 6, Dolphins (4-2 after a win) over Bears 31-28, Bears ended the season 12-4 (5th in power rankings), Trubisky 3rd best QBR
- FUN FACT: This is famously known as the ‘Albert Wilson Game’ where he had 155 yards and 2 TDs
- Week 14, Dolphins (7-6 after a win) over Patriots 34-33, Bears ended the season 11-5 (6th in power rankings), Brady 6th best QBR
- FUN FACT: This is the even MORE famous ‘Miami Miracle’ game where Gronk, didn’t in fact, have the angle
Crazy enough, the other half of these games happened in the last 2 weeks:
- Week 2, Dolphins (2-0 after a win) over Ravens 34-28, Ravens currently 2-1 (6th in power rankings), Jackson 2nd best QBR
- Week 3, Bills (3-0 after a win) over Bills 21-19, Bills currently 2-1 (2nd in power rankings), Allen 3rd best QBR
To put it plainly: The Dolphins have only won 4 truly impressive games in the past 5 seasons; 2 of which were just this month.
OTHER DATA THAT TELLS A STORY
Of course, the team has beaten other good teams in this period; but honestly, very few:
- The 2019 Patriots who finished 12-4
- The 2020 Rams who finished 10-6
But obviously one of the games was against Jared Goff and the other was during a year we finished 5-11.
To further prove my point about just how many insignificant wins we’ve had over the past 5 seasons, I would like to leave you with more cold hard facts:
- In an average Dolphins win, they are playing the 22nd best QB in the NFL (QBR ESPN)
- They are beating the 20th best team in the NFL
- More than a third (33% plus) of the Dolphins’ victories in the last 5 seasons have been against a bottom-5 team in the league (ESPN Power Rankings)
PUT A BOW ON IT
For half a decade now, the Dolphins have beaten bad teams and lost to good ones. There is no way around it; and that’s why they were stuck in a perpetual 8-8, 7-9 purgatory. But this year, the data is showing us something completely different; something special.
The Dolphins have finally arrived.
And as my grandpa says when his plate is finally filled with Thanksgiving dinner:
“It’s about damn time!”