Everyone, please understand: if we lose on Sunday versus the Bills, it’s OK.

I am unlike a lot of writers in NFL spaces because to support any of my articles and opinion pieces, I always make sure to back them up with concrete data. 

Irrefutable data, really:

Madden 23 Simulation Mode (LOL)

As a precursor to the simulation results, my cohost and I talked about this game ad nauseam on our podcast the ‘TuAmigos’ (Jorge picked a Dolphin victory 42-28 and I picked a 35-28 loss). Regardless, we both agree that two ideas can be true at the same time: the Dolphins can be a top-10 team in this league and the Bills can be the best team in the NFL. 

This concept is very simple but also super hard to allow yourself to understand. Because if we lose Sunday, we aren’t ‘fakers’ or ‘frauds’ – no – we just lost to the team that is very likely to win the Super Bowl this season.

That being said, if we instead lose by 20-plus points to this Bills team and show literally no fight whatsoever, that is when you need to worry; that is when it is fair to again declare this team ‘The Same Old Dolphins’. 

But let’s not be too negative coming off my favorite win in Dolphins history. Instead, let’s just skip to the unquestionable data and let it spin us the rest of the story:

WHAT MADDEN 23 TELLS US

I watched this entire simulation (because my life is very uneventful), and it was 28-21 for a huge portion of the 4th quarter. There were many moments in this one where Tua had the opportunity to tie it up but tried to force the ball to Waddle and Hill and it got picked (something we’ve seen from him in the past). Tua ended up throwing for 292 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs; the two turnovers ended up being the difference.

Let’s look at the runningback stats – which were very alarming:

RUSHING YARDS

If these photos are unreadable, I’ll give it to you straight: we ran the ball horribly. Again.

22 rush attempts, 57 rush yards, 2.6 yards per carry

In my opinion, the only real way the Dolphins can beat the Bills on Sunday is by controlling the clock; keeping the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands for as long as humanly possible. 2.6 yards per carry will not even slightly help with that effort.

RECEIVING YARDS

I was also talking about this on my podcast. Xavien Howard never shuts down Stefon Diggs, and this simulation was no different. If Diggs ends up going for 11 receptions, 170 yards, and 1 TD we are DOOMED.

Apparently, and rightfully so, the Bills game-planned for Waddle and Hill (Blur Bothers) in the simulation and held them to 148 yards and 0 TDs combined; which is a victory in and of itself after the Ravens allowed them to go off for 361 yards and 4 TDs. This focus on the Blur Brothers, however, meant the yards had to go somewhere. Meaning Cedric Wilson Jr. had the best game of his Dolphins career with 89 yards and 2 TDs.

DEFENSE STATS

This is what you should worry about. Tua threw for 6 TDs versus the Ravens because he was sacked only one time all game. If you give Von Miller 2 sacks (which this simulation is predicting), he will shift the game. I know this is just a video game but also in real life, I am terrified of Von Miller; it would be wise if the coaching staff was too.

In brighter news, Melvin Ingram matched Miller’s sack total with two of his own!

WHAT WE LEARNED

Madden 23 has never been wrong (I’m joking). The Madden Gods predict us to lose by 14 to the best team in the NFL. If that happened, I would be a smitten boy.

We should be rooting for anything but a blowout loss.

Because if we lose by 21 or more – it will undo everything that happened in the Ravens game.

And we will truly be ‘The Same Old Dolphins’.