If you’re pinching yourself because football is back, you can stop. After all the offseason splashes the Miami Dolphins made and all the intense scrutiny the team has been under thanks largely to polarizing starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, week one has arrived.

Hold onto those foam fingers tight, because the season is once again kicking off with a divisional bout against the New England Patriots.

Tua is 3-0 in his career against these post-Brady-era Pats, but acknowledged to the Miami Herald this week that “you never know what you’re going to get” when Belichick is the coach on the opposing sideline, forever scowling into his play sheet beneath a tattered hoodie. 

The Dolphins go into the contest as slight favorites against their division rivals. And Miami’s offense compares more favorably to last year’s unit than a Lambo parked next to a Prius, thanks to the additions of Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, Chase Edmonds, and others (nothing wrong with being fuel efficient – an NFL offense needs some more oomph to it).

Improvements aside, however, New England boasts a defense that finished the 2021 season ranked second in points allowed. 

The Pats are never an easy draw, and this week one game has more significant implications than usual, even outside of serving as the home opener for the season.

Miami’s next three opponents after this week are the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills (to whom the team has lost seven in a row), and the defending AFC champs, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Opening the season against those three teams plus the Patriots is like putting on wet socks in the morning – you’re just not sure if you’re ready for that much unpleasantness so early on. 

Ted Lasso-esque analogies aside, this week one bout carries amplified importance because Miami likely won’t be favored again until week five against the Jets. They must steal a win to open the season and shield themselves against the wet socks that weeks two through four represent. 

(Too much? Alright, I’ll stop.)

If Tua and the Dolphins can’t beat McCorkle (yes, that is his legal middle name) Jones and the Patriots on Sunday, they risk facing an 0-4 start that would be absolutely backbreaking for the team’s playoff aspirations. 

With that being said, which Dolphins have the most to prove when deciding Sunday’s outcome?

3.) CHRISTIAN WILKINS

I was torn between Raekwon Davis and Wilkins at the number three spot. Both will need to be anchors up front in the heart of the defense against a Patriots offense that will lean heavily on establishing a physical ground game. The team is looking for Davis to make a year-three jump similar to Wilkins last season, and Davis went down injured against the Pats in week one last year, so he may have that extra chip on his shoulder.

The edge, however, goes to Wilkins. 

The veteran defensive tackle broke out last season, was named a captain of the 2022 squad, and is known for having a loud — albeit goofy — mouth on the field. 

With a mediocre receiving corps and talented ball carriers Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield, you don’t have to watch the film to guess what the Patriots offensive identity will be.

They’re going to pound the rock. And if it succeeds, then so will the play-action game against a secondary missing Byron Jones. That combination of events could turn Sunday into an ominous beginning rather than an exciting springboard for the season.

It’s up to Christian Wilkins more than anyone else on the defensive line to keep that from happening.

2.) MIKE GESICKI

Will this be a pick most people expect? Probably not. 

But think about it from Mike’s perspective.

You’re one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league. You’re part of a brand-spanking new offense that’s supposed to blow the roof off of the stadium. Your name being floated around in… trade rumors? All because of speculation that you don’t fit into a system that’s only been seen with this set of personnel very briefly in the preseason?

Mike has said before that he enjoys his time in Miami, and as he’s grown more comfortable as a pro he’s been increasingly passionate on the field. 

If you’re not expecting him to want to prove to the team on Sunday that he belongs here in any system, that he can make plays that other tight ends simply can’t, you’re missing something.

Pair that with the matchup he’s being presented, and naming Mike as my number two makes even more sense. The Patriots linebackers are a capable bunch – Matthew Judon and Ja’Whaun Bentley are two names in particular that fans probably know – but they’re more adept and moving forwards than backward.

In other words, they’re meant to plug holes and knock skulls in the ground game, not drop into coverage and defend against an athletic 6’6″ tight end like Mike Gesicki.

While Patriots DBs are occupied with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Cedrick Wilson, expect Mike to make a concerted effort to change the outlook of this game between the hashes. 

1.) TUA TAGOVAILOA

Is it cheap? Maybe.

But, folks, it’s also true.

Tua sealed the opener against the Pats last season with a great throw to DeVante Parker (now a Patriot) on third down to move the chains and kill the clock. Still, the game was only in jeopardy because he had thrown an earlier interception that should have never happened. It took a miraculous forced fumble by Xavien Howard to bring the game back from the brink. 

Let’s have Tua be the reason Miami sends the Pats packing with a loss this time. At the very least, let’s not make anyone else save the game because of his actions.

We’ve heard it all offseason from pundits in every sports media outlet known to man, but the spotlight is squarely on Tua this season. I have no doubts that Tua has the talent to thrive in this system – he’s always had the ability as a prospect. The question now becomes if he can limit mistakes and take advantage of all the talent around him.

Fair or not, he will be compared to Mac Jones at the conclusion of this game. Especially if he’s outplayed. And after that, he can look forward to comparisons to fellow 2020 draftee Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in weeks three and four. 

The comparisons may be inevitable, but the verdict is not. 

With the entire 2022 season serving as a franchise-quarterback audition for Tagovailoa, it’s time to prove, one game at a time, that he can maximize his potential in this system and be a reason for the success of the Miami Dolphins. 

 

(Thanks for reading! For more Dolphins content, especially with the season now underway, follow me on Twitter @EvanMorris72)