There is never a good time for an injury to take place, but Tua Tagovailoa’s most recent concussion might’ve happened at the exact worst time.
Tagovailoa’s injuries aren’t his fault. In fact, they’re nobody’s. Football is a dangerous sport, and players get hurt all the time, but for the Dolphins and Tagovailoa, this injury throws a real wrench in both the team’s present situation and their future one.
Miami currently sits at 8-7 and is holding onto the last playoff spot in the AFC for dear life. Their game against the Patriots this weekend will go a long way to deciding whether Miami will end its five-year playoff drought.
While that problem is the most present, I’d argue it’s not the most important one. Instead, that distinction lies with the question of whether or not Tagovailoa is the long-term solution at quarterback.
Tagovailoa will enter his fourth season in 2023, meaning he’s extension eligible, and the Dolphins can also exercise his fifth-year option after that. In theory, re-signing Tagovailoa would be a simple calculus for the Dolphins.
At this theoretical point, Miami would have four seasons of film and results to decide if Tagovailoa is worth it. Maybe he’s got a playoff win under his belt at this point. Maybe he’s grown past Mike McDaniel’s offense at this point.
So, how does an injury before the end of his third season throw the balance of this equation off? It robs Tagovailoa of a chance to prove he can rise up in a big moment, and it robs the Dolphins of a chance to evaluate him in a big moment.
There’s a chance he plays again this season, but given the concern, McDaniel spoke with this week, it wouldn’t surprise me if he misses extended time.
Tagovailoa Needs a Resume Builder
It’s unfortunate, too, because Tagovailoa was set up perfectly to prove his worth as a potential long-term investment. The Packers’ loss was bad, but two back-to-back wins against divisional opponents, shutting out two of Miami’s rivals from the postseason while simultaneously ending the Dolphins’ drought, would’ve papered over a lot of cracks.
Missing this opportunity to evaluate Tagovialoa in that spot makes the decision about whether to continue investing in him incredibly difficult.
If Tagovailoa doesn’t play again this season, Miami has to evaluate what they have seen so far, and what they have seen hardly makes this decision any easier despite his 21-13 career record.
Here are Tagovailoa’s career stats so far:
65.7 completion %, 8,015 passing yards, 52 passing touchdowns, 23 INTs, 95 QB Rating
How does that compare to other quarterbacks in his class?
Joe Burrow: 68.5%, 11,559 passing yards, 81 touchdowns, 31 INTs, 101 QB Rating
Justin Herbert: 66.8%, 13,604 passing yards, 90 touchdowns, 35 INTs, 95.7 QB Rating
Jalen Hurts: 62.5%, 7,677 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, 18 INTs, 93.1 QB Rating.
These stats aren’t the best evaluation of talent, but when quarterbacks get late into their first contract, the team they’re on slowly but surely starts caring less about “potential” and more about results.
Burrow led the Bengals to a Super Bowl, Herbert locked up Los Angeles’ playoff spot already (outperforming Tagovailoa in primetime while doing it), and Hurts has the Eagles on their way to the NFC’s No.1 seed one season after already making the playoffs.
What results does Tagovailoa have thus far? A 21-13 record with zero playoff appearances isn’t much to write home about. He’s had chances to win games with major playoff implications before ( at Buffalo in 2020, at Tennessee in 2021). He went 0-2.
You can argue the context around these QB situations are different and that if you turn on the film, Tagovailoa can compete with these guys. You could argue it’s not fair to judge Tagovailoa because of numerous reasons, but that in itself is the problem. Those arguments, while potentially fair, start to lose weight as the years roll on.
Through no fault of his own, Tagovailoa’s rocky road with the Dolphins has greatly muddied the waters of his evaluation. This two-game stretch was an opportunity for Tagovailoa to put a tangible accomplishment on his resume.
Advanced stats and film are great. In fact, I write a film breakdown of Tagovailoa every week, but that only gets you so far in the NFL. We can sit here all the live long day and fawn over Tagovailoa’s anticipation or RPO prowess, but that won’t save him in the end.
The NFL is a cutthroat business that relies heavily on results-based outcomes.
Considering the Risks
This concussion not only potentially robs Tagovailoa of a chance to put something meaningful on his resume, but it also, unfortunately, adds to his laundry list of injuries.
Here’s a timeline of some of Tagovailoa’s injuries since 2018.
2018: Hand Finger Fracture (required surgery), Knee Sprain, Ankle Sprain (required surgery)
2019: Ankle Sprain (required tightrope surgery), Dislocated Hip (required surgery)
2020: Thumb Injury (missed time)
2021: Rib Fracture (missed time), Finger Fracture (missed time)
2022: At least two concussions, one of which required him to get stretchered to the hospital, and he missed time for both
Again, this isn’t Tagovailoa’s fault, but it puts the Dolphins in an incredibly difficult spot when considering his future.
Put yourself in Miami’s shoes. You have a quarterback who likely wants to be paid within the top 10 or top 5 of his position. This quarterback has average stats, inconsistent film, and no tangible late-season big wins on his resume. Also, he has an extensive injury history.
The NFL’s 10th highest-paid QB in guarantees is Carson Wentz, who is getting more than $60 million guaranteed and the fifth highest is Josh Allen, who is getting more than $100 million guaranteed.
That’s the range right now, but those numbers will increase as more players get their payday. Like Tagovailoa, Burrow and Herbert’s payday is also coming up.
Where Does Miami Go From Here?
All of this sounds like a list of reasons why Miami shouldn’t pay Tagovailoa and should attempt to move on from him.
That might be true, but that’s not really the point here. The point is Tagovailoa’s injury happening in this specific moment makes things extra challenging.
I’ve laid out the doomsday scenario already, but there’s also the other side of that coin. The side where Tagovailoa gets Miami to the playoffs, and the team makes some noise.
Maybe they win a game or two. Upset Burrow even. Who knows?
That’s the tragic irony of this scenario. We won’t know if Tagovailoa doesn’t take the field again in the next two weeks. At the end of the day, it might not be anyone’s fault either.
This two-week stretch was Tagovailoa’s best chance to puff out his chest, play well in a huge spot, and give the Dolphins a concrete reason to continue viewing him as the long-term quarterback.
Instead, an unfortunate injury could put that evaluation off another season. Does Miami want to wait that long? There is a version of history where the team finishes with another winning record while missing the postseason, making it three years in a row.
Do they find a way to trade for Derek Carr? What about potential free agent Tom Brady? Steven Ross already lost Miami a first-round draft pick trying to sign him once. Lamar Jackson could, in theory, force his way out of Baltimore. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be available again too.
Those situations and others like it seem unlikely given Miami’s lack of draft resources and each of those players having their own outstanding hurdles to jump through, whether it be age or contract related.
The odds are likely Tagovailoa will return as the starter in 2023. But the question then becomes: Is it too late?
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