Tom Ernisse’s 2023 Free Agency Plan

It’s that time of year again! In this article, I will break down the Dolphins’ salary cap situation; roster moves they should make before the beginning of the new league year. In addition, offer up some options in free agency in what, I feel, is best for the team going into 2023.

The Dolphins finished 9-9 (including playoffs), which fell well short of expectations after starting the season 8-3. Mike McDaniel had a very good start to his coaching career while still needing to learn from the many mistakes he made as a rookie HC.  

The Dolphins’ defense will officially get a new look as Josh Boyer was fired after the season. In comes Vic Fangio. Fangio is a massive upgrade from a coaching perspective, and the team will have a new look overall in the type of style they employ. While most of the players fit the system, look for upgrades at LB and DB.  

The NFL announced a massive increase in cap space to $224.8M. With new TV contracts kicking in, look for the Dolphins to be smart with the year-one cap number on these contracts to give the team relief as the cap continues to rise. 

Just like my 2022 article, this will focus on moves I feel the Dolphins will make and what the cap will look like when it is all said and done. I will then preview the needs of the team and whom the team may target. Big thanks to SpoTrac yet again for the cap hits and potential contracts for pending free-agent signings.

Without further ado, let’s get into the Dolphins’ current cap situation and what moves they will need to make to be players in free agency this offseason:

Cap Space (Top 51): (-$14,241,554) (24th in NFL)

Roster Cuts

CB Byron Jones (released 3/7/23)–  This move was expected from the start of the offseason. Jones couldn’t recover from his Achilles injury and also tweeted some things regarding not to trust doctors and whatnot. The release will not benefit the Dolphins right now as the post-6/1 designation was made, giving the team $13,600,000 in cap space at that time.  

TE Cethan Carter (released 3/7/23)–  Another cap casualty that was going to happen. Unfortunately, Carter suffered what seems to be a serious concussion, as he never was able to clear protocol and was placed on IR. The move will give the Dolphins $2.3M in cap relief (Cap Space after move: -$14,241,554)

CB Keion Crossen– This may surprise some, but the money relief makes sense with this move. Crossen will be 29 by the start of mini-camp. He had some good moments, but he was never a needle mover for this defense in the absence of Byron Jones. Dolphins free up $3,155,000 in cap (Cap space after move: $-11,086,554)

K Jason Sanders-  Since Jason Sanders sensational 2020 season, he has fallen off a cliff. Inaccurate from beyond 45 yards and atrocious at kicks beyond 50. The Dolphins can save $3,775,000 in space with his release, and it seems more likely than not the Dolphins will have a new kicker for 2023. (Cap space after move: -$7,311,554)

Restructures/Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill-  This starts the creativity of contracts created by Brandon Shore. Tyreek Hill is going to probably finish his career in Miami. Makes sense to restructure his deal to provide cap relief. Doing this base salary restructure, the Dolphins get $11,126,250 in cap space. (Cap space after move: $3,814,696)

OLB Bradley Chubb-  After making the trade for Bradley Chubb, the Dolphins paid him a healthy extension. His $22.197M cap hit can be reduced down and give the team relief of $14,656,000. Just like Hill, Chubb will not be going anywhere any time soon. (Cap space after move: $18,470,696) EDIT:  Move happened 3/9/23

DE Emmanuel Ogbah-  Ogbah could be a post-6/1 release to free up cap, but the team likes him. Granted, he was hurt last year, but he has been productive since he joined the team. A restructuring gives the team more relief of $9,223,333. (Cap Space after move: $27,694,029)

OT Terron Armstead–  I honestly went back and fourth on this one, but due to the short-term contract for Terron, a restructured deal makes sense. When healthy, he’s an elite tackle. The problem last year was he was a walking injury report. Hopefully, he can stay healthy in 2023. His restructuring saves the team $5,876,250. (Cap Space after move: $33,057,029)

DL Christian Wilkins (Extension)–  This man deserves a massive pay raise. When it comes down to dollars, I feel he will fall somewhere between Jonathan Allen (72M) and Aaron Donald (95M). The intrigue here is the type of cap relief an extension can bring the team. I believe the Dolphins will give Christian a 4 year extension (5 years total), 80M with 40M in guaranteed dollars. They can lower his cap hit in 2023 from $10,753,000 to $1M, freeing up $9,753,000 in the process. But the big thing here is locking up a core piece for the long term with cap flexibility in the first few years of the deal (Cap space after move: $42,810,029).

Overview:  While this isn’t ideal, the team freed up $43M in cap space to use in free agency while getting Byron Jones cap relief of 13.6M on June 1st. I firmly believe all the above occurs as the Dolphins push further into win-now mode. With the free agents I will show that could be signed, I am factoring low cap hits in year one of these deals.  

Free Agency:  $42,810,029

NEEDS:  RB, T, TE, G, QB, LB, SS, K, P

QB:

Sign QB Nick Mullens (28 years old)- 2 yrs/$6M ($3M per season), 4M Guaranteed

The backup QB market is tough. I am sure some Dolphins fans would like a bigger name but you can’t discount familiarity. Mullens spent three years in San Francisco, with, of course, Mike McDaniel there. He will come at a cheaper cost but has starting experience through his time in the NFL. And it won’t break the bank. 

Other Names to watch for:  Mike White, Case Keenum, Kyle Allen

RB:

Re-Sign Jeff Wilson Jr (27 years old) 1 yr/3M, 2M Guaranteed

The dilemma right now in Miami is their running back room, with zero under contract. Wilson makes a bit more sense to re-sign due to the fact Miami sent a 5th-round pick in this upcoming draft for him. He will come at a lower price tag and is younger than Mostert.

Sign Kareem Hunt-  (28 years old) 2 yrs/12M ($6M per season), 8M Guaranteed

Adding this type of dynamic back is something the Dolphins need. Hunt is a dual threat back. He took a back seat to Nick Chubb the last few years. This, to me, seems like a Tyreek Hill recommendation but allows to have 2 dynamic backs.  

Other Names to watch for: Devin Singletary, Savon Ahmed, Miles Sanders,  D’Onta Foreman

WR:

Re-Sign Trent Sherfield (27 years old) 1 yr/ 1.5M 

Sheffield had a solid season with the Dolphins. He developed good chemistry with Tua throughout the season. While this room is top-heavy, keeping Sherfield is worth it for depth and familiarity. 

TE:

No FA signings here. It is a long shot to bring back Mike Gesicki based on his limited role and his inability to fit the scheme. Durham Smythe and Hunter Long will lead the room. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a new TE drafted, however.

OL:

Sign OL Andre Dillard (28 years old) 3 yrs/ 18M ($6M per season), 12M guaranteed

Dillard won’t break the bank but his versatility as an inside blocker as well as tackle experience is something severely lacking in Miami. He may be able to snag a starting spot at RT or LG with the competition being Liam Eichenberg and Austin Jackson..

I am sure there will be more depth signings in the trenches as well as spending draft capital on one as well.

Other Names to watch for:  Billy Turner, Greg Little, Cody Ford, Will Hernandez

Special Teams:

Re-Sign P Thomas Morstead 1 yr/1.5M 

Morstead was solid for the Dolphins last season. Even at 37, this position doesn’t need much competition, and he provides a steady presence with consistency.

Kicker will be addressed in the UDFA market, in my opinion. No need to spend big on guys like Matt Gay or Chase McLaughlin.  

Offense/Special Teams overview:

Based on these moves, the Dolphins will have spent 21M in cap space based on the AAV. Again, contract construction is vital here, and Brandon Shore will do a great job keeping the cap hits at a minimum this season. But for the sake of the article, the Dolphins have roughly 22M to spend on defense:

DL:  

None. The re-signing of Christian Wilkins (per this article) and the depth and current players under contract, this group will remain intact. No major additions here.

LB:

Sign ILB Kwon Alexander (28 years old) 2 yr/7.5M ($3.75M per season), 4M guaranteed

With Vic Fangio in the fold, he will be looking for bigger-bodied inside linebackers, with the unknown of Jerome Baker (in this article, he stays). Alexander spent time with, you guessed it, San Francisco before taking a one-year deal with the Jets.  

Other names to watch for:  Eric Kendricks, Devin Bush, T.J Edwards, Elandon Roberts

DB:

Sign S Kareem Jackson (35 years old) 1 yr/ 3.5M

Jackson has knowledge of Vic Fangio’s defense as he was a free agent signing there in 2019. This is basically Eric Rowe’s replacement and adds someone to help Holland, Jones, and others to understand the new system

Sign CB Jamel Dean (26 years old), 4 yr/ 65M, 34M guaranteed

With Byron Jones out of the picture, the Dolphins need to get some youth. While I like Kader Kohou, he may project as a nickel back. Jamel Dean is one of the best zone defenders in the game and will fit in nicely with this system. If Miami breaks the bank for ONE free agent, I believe it will be a re-do at the corner.

Other Names to watch for:  S Jordan Poyer, CB Nik Needham, S Bobby McCain, CB James Bradberry

Overview:

If the Dolphins learned anything from last year, it is that the depth of the roster really was tested. Some good but mostly bad. This free agency period, to me, is adding quality players that can start right away or in a pinch. Chris Grier and Brandon Shore will need to be aggressive but smart. This is a critical year for the franchise in taking the next steps to continue to grow this thing. #FinsUp