The Dolphins proved last year that they were able to hang with the best teams in the NFL. Tua was on fire, Hill and Waddle were a dynamite duo, and the defense was teeming with talent. After a few key additions to complete that defense, the Dolphins are ready to compete. But now that they are, the question of who their biggest threat remains. Who poses stiffer competition for the Dolphins inside the AFC East? The Bills or the Jets?

The Bills have had a mostly uneventful offseason so far. The reigning AFC East champs resigned defensive backs Jordan Poyer and Dane Jackson. On offense, All-Pro Quarterback Josh Allen has new weapons to work with, including running back Damien Harris and former Dolphins wide receiver Trent Sherfield. Additionally, the offensive line was shored up by signing guard Connor McGovern. On the other hand, they had key losses in free agency, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, receiver Isaiah McKenzie, and running back Devin Singletary. Further, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier departed to take the year off from coaching.

McGovern should be a nice upgrade at guard, but that is about it as far as positional improvements go. Swapping in Sherfield and Harris to replace McKenzie and Singletary appears to be a lateral move as far as their stats go. And while Bills fans can be happy that they kept Poyer on the roster, the defense still has lost far more than it has gained. 

Still, there was not a ton to improve upon, to begin with. The Bills won the division for the third year in a row, and they are more than good enough to try and make that four straight. They were the second-ranked scoring offense and defense last season, and that exceptional play on both sides of the ball will definitely be back in 2023. 

Now to look at the Jets. Their defense last season was among the best in the league, and their offense was filled with talented weapons at receiver and running back. All they needed, it seemed, was a competent quarterback, and they would have been set. On March 15,  Aaron Rodgers announced to the world his intention to play for New York Jets. Bringing the four-time MVP quarterback would certainly be the biggest trade of the offseason and quite the upgrade over Zach Wilson. But it is now over a week later, and Aaron Rodgers is currently still a Green Bay Packer. Failing to make this trade happen would be catastrophic for the Jets and would put them in a tough spot to find a new replacement quarterback.

Assuming the deal does happen, however, the Jets will undisputedly be far better in 2023. Even if Rodgers cannot return to his MVP form, he is still a monumental step up from Wilson. It is easy to forget, but the Jets were 7-4 before they collapsed in on themselves and lost out to end the season. They have both Rookie of the Year winners in wide receiver Garret Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardener, plus other young talents like running back Breece Hall and receiver Mecole Hardman. And it is hard to understate how good this defense is. They gave up 30 points just once all year and held opponents to 20 points or less in all but six of their games. No team allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Jets, with only 15. It will be a huge challenge for anyone to score on the Jets next season.

So who stands more in the way of Miami taking the AFC East? Buffalo is loaded with stars on offense and defense. And that will be the case again in 2023. Josh Allen is an elite talent on the field, but the Bills tend to lean on him far too much to carry the team, which forces him to overextend plays and make costly mistakes. That explains the 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles he had last year. And the Bills have not done enough this offseason to take the pressure off, Allen. Their run game which seemed to vanish at times in 2022, has not gotten any better by replacing Devin Singletary with Damien Harris. Buffalo still has plenty of pieces to be contenders, and I expect Miami’s games against them to be close, just like last year, but it is hard to sustain success when you cannot run or protect the football. In a division that has only gotten better, failing to make major improvements may cost the Bills in the long run. 

If the Jets do pull off the trade for Rodgers, I see a team that has the ability to run and pass efficiently while smothering their opponents on defense. Plus, there is no reason not to expect their young stars to continue to develop. Rodgers did have a down year in 2022 by his own standards, but he is still only a year removed from back-to-back MVP runs. Miami has an offense that can outpace most teams and has taken significant steps to bolster their defense, so I am confident we will be serious contenders next year.

But when it comes to which team I think will make us fight harder for the AFC East title, Aaron Rodgers with the Jets would be the team that has me most worried.Â