Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa put together a breakout season in 2022, posting career-high numbers and making a legitimate MVP case for himself for a solid stretch during this past season. His amazing season was unfortunately cut short due to injury, specifically concussions, which have left many to question Tagovailoa’s durability and his future with the team/league. While the injuries Tua sustained last season should not be taken lightly, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Tagovailoa could very well be on the verge of another big season. 

1. He was already playing MVP-caliber football last season.

Let’s start off with what we already know; a season ago, we saw Tua lead the league in passer rating with a 105.5 QBR; he threw for a total of 3,548 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns in only 13 games played. When looking at per-game averages, Tua ranks top 5 in both per-game passing yards with 272.9 yards and in passing touchdowns with an average of 1.92 per game. I point out these numbers to show that Tua was already statistically a top 5 quarterback when healthy in McDaniel’s offense. He was also a legitimate MVP candidate through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season, so he certainly has the ability to be great; the only real question mark is his availability (more on this later). Plenty of people have questioned the Dolphins’ decision to pick up Tua’s fifth-year option. Still, when you look at these numbers and compare the value in terms of production and cap space compared to other quarterback situations in the league, it becomes much easier to understand why Miami has chosen to go all in with this quarterback. Tua is arguably better than most options that are/were available, and his contract is much cheaper than the alternatives. 

2. The improved defense will help set up more opportunities for the offense.

To this point, the better part of the Miami Dolphins’ off-season has been spent on improving the other side of the ball, the defense. With the addition of guys like Jalen Ramsey, David Long, and others, along with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, a unit that struggled at points a year ago should be greatly improved come next season. These improvements should lend themselves to better field position and better scoring opportunities for the offense. Considering just how much of this offense runs through the left arm of Tua Tagovailoa, I would expect to see his numbers go up next season.

3. Second year in McDaniel’s offense.

A second year in the same offensive system is typically good for most NFL quarterbacks; another year of familiarity and gaining some necessary confidence within the system usually means more production. In the past, there have been plenty of examples of quarterbacks having some of their best seasons after having a full year to learn a new offensive system. Guys like Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Philp Rivers, Jared Goff, and others have all seen career years in the subsequent year following a new offensive scheme being implemented. In most cases, a quarterback’s second year in a system tends to yield better results.

4. There’s reason to believe Tua will overcome the injury issues.

Time to address the massive elephant in the room; Tua gets hurt and misses games, and even worse than that, he sustained (at least) two concussions in the span of 3 months last season. Depending on who you ask, you’ll either hear that he is now more susceptible to concussions or if you believe Chris Grier and the Dolphins he is not “any more prone than anyone else.” That being said, I feel it important to note that Tua was not “concussion-prone” prior to this past season; he has missed time in the past due to injury, but this season was the first instance of a head injury keeping him out. Prior to this year, his injury struggles were from the neck down; most notable was the hip injury he sustained prior to being drafted, but he has also had rib, ankle, and finger injuries in his career. I mention this because when you look at his past injuries, they have not popped back up or plagued him frequently. For the most part, he’s dealt with and overcome almost every injury he’s sustained in his career so far. An injury to the brain is, of course, different from the ordinary breaking of bones or ligaments. Still, the point is that I trust Tagovailoa will put himself in the best possible position not to sustain another injury like that again because he has managed to do so time and time again. Whether it’s trying to get rid of the ball quicker, packing on muscle in the off-season, taking judo classes to learn how to fall better, or even potentially dawning a new helmet that’s slightly more effective against concussions, I trust that Tua will do whatever it takes to protect himself and succeed.

5. He seems happy.

Admittedly I’m only mentioning this because of a response Tua had to a question he was asked at his “Luau with Tua” Charity event. When asked how he was feeling compared to this time last year, Tua said, “How do I feel now compared to a year ago? I’m smiling a lot more, so I would say good”. You know what they say “feel good, play good” (or whatever Deion Sanders said).

Now there’s still a lot of time between now and the start of the season; who knows what other moves may happen between now and then. Perhaps the Dolphins even manage to pull off another big trade or signing to help fortify that offensive line or maybe add a star in the backfield to bolster the run game. In any case, I feel pretty confident in the Miami Dolphins heading into next season with Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback.