Week 5 was a week to survive.  Too bad I did not do so.  I went 5-9 last week which was my worst week in 3 years.  41-37 (52.6%) for the year in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge which moved me down to a dreadful 93rd overall.  Still in the upper third but below my standards.  The good news is that I went another 3-2 in the Pick 5 challenge and gained a game on the leader.  15-10 (60%) overall and 4 games back.  Why the reason for the struggle?  I’m usually on the opposite side of the public which typically performs at or below 44%. This year, the heavy favorites backed by the public are hitting 62% which is not a good trend for me.  With trends like these, you have to stay the course and hope the trend regresses to the mean.  Let’s see what happens this week.

CHIEFS -10.5 vs. Broncos.  I give up on Sean Payton.  I won’t pick them for the rest of the year regardless of the spread.  But don’t follow me here.  The Chiefs are a mere 10-13-1 as a home double-digit favorite and Kelce-Swift might not play.

RAVENS -3.5 vs. Titans in London.  Last call for the Titans for me.  They continue to be unimpressive.  Our old friend Ryan Tannehill is who we thought he was; a game manager at best.  Derrick Henry has a lot of miles on those legs.  The game is in London so no real edge.  I’ll take Lamar over Tanny.

LIONS -3.5 @ Bucs.  I think the Lions are for real.  I don’t think the Bucs and Baker Mayfield are.  I’m not a fan of the spread here, but I’m taking the better team and hope I don’t lose by a hook.

COLTS +4.5 @ Jags.  The Gardner Minshew Bowl.  I’m going with the revenge factor here in Minshew’s homecoming.  The Jags seem to be missing something thus far.  I think the game will be close.

TEXANS +1.5 vs. Saints.  I’m anti-Derrick Carr plain and simple.

49ERS -5.5 @ Browns.  I think my opinion would be different if DeShaun Watson wasn’t dinged up.  The Browns are coming off a bye.  Will there be rust?  I hope so.  I’m taking McCaffery and the best team in the NFC.

BENGALS -2.5 vs. Seahawks.  I’m sure this will be a big public play, but I’m expecting Joe Burrow to finally get his act in gear.  Not a big spread to cover here so not a whole lot of risk.

BEARS +2.5 vs. Vikings.  I’m also anti-Kirk Cousins who is so wildly inconsistent week to week that it’s impossible to get a gauge on him.  Coin flip goes to the home dog.

COMMANDERS +2.5 @ Falcons. Two teams I’d rather not have to pick to cover.  I still don’t believe in Desmond Ridder, but Sam Howell isn’t much better.  In an even game, I’ll take the points here.

RAIDERS -3.5 vs. Pats.  Talk about a dreadful match-up.  Like the above game, I’d rather not have to pick a side.  It’s Coach B against his former OC.  The Pats have been so bad and they’re sticking with Mac Jones so I’m sticking with the other side.

RAMS -6.5 vs. Cards.  Divisional game which usually means a close game.  I think the 6.5 are too many yet I think the Rams are due for a bounce back.

EAGLES -7.5 @ Jets.  The makes no sense to pick with the Jets worked against the Chiefs; however, Sauce Gardiner is out along with 3 other secondary starters. That’s too many for me.

BILLS -14.5 vs. Giants.  14.5 points in an NFL game usually means too many.  Historically one should take the points, but the Giants are terrible.  The Bills should blow them off the map Sunday night.

COWBOYS -2.5 @ Chargers.  I’m looking for Dallas to bounce back after they got crushed last week by the 49ers.  I’m sure the public will be heavy on Dallas as well which is trouble for me.

FINS -13.5 vs. Panthers.  If last week’s game was any indication, the Fins SHOULD win this in a romp.  Bryce Young has struggled.  The Fins played a decent game vs. the Giants but left a lot on the table.  I look for this to be what everyone expects.  45-17 Fins.

PICK 5

49ers -4.5 @ Browns

FINS -13.5 vs. Panthers

BENGALS -2.5 vs. Seahawks

COLTS +4.5 @ Jags

BILLS -14.5 vs. Giants