This week, it’s off to Frankfort, Germany, for a big test against one of the NFL’s elite teams, the Kansas City Chiefs. This will be the third opportunity for the Fins to prove they belong in the ‘elite’ discussion and are true contenders for the Super Bowl.  Thus far, they’ve not shown much in their two road attempts, going 0-2 against the Eagles and Bills, losing by a combined 45 points.  This neutral site clash will be a lot closer.  Here is this week’s tale of the tape statistics to consider:

TEAM STATS

  • Total Offense – yards per game. Fins 1st.  Chiefs 4th.
  • Points per game. Fins 1st at 34 points per game while the Chiefs are a surprising 12th at 23 points per game.
  • Passing yards per game. Fins 1  Chiefs 3rd.
  • Rushing yards per game. Fins 1st.  Chiefs 21st.
  • Total Defense – yards per game. Chiefs a surprising 4th. Fins 15th but moving up.
  • Points allowed per game. Chiefs 2nd at 16 points allowed. Fins 25th at 26 points per game.
  • Passing yards allowed per game. Chiefs 2nd. Fins up to 16th.
  • Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 17th. Chiefs 19th.
  • Turnover Margin. Fins and Chiefs tied for 25th at -4.
  • Chiefs 3rd. Fins 4th.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

  • Tua is 1st in passing yards, TDs, and passer rating. Mahomes is right up there at 3rd, 5th, and 9th.
  • Tyreek Hill is ranked is 1st in reception yards, 2nd in receptions, and 1st in TDs.  Chiefs’ top receiver is actually tight end Travis Kelce, who is 11th in yards, tied 12th in TDs, and 8th in receptions.
  • Raheem Mostert is 6th in rushing yards and 1st in rushing TDs. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is 10th in rushing yards and tied 16th in TDs.


HEAD-TO-HEAD

Fins offense vs. Chiefs defense.   The Kansas City defense doesn’t get talked about much.  Yet it is statistically ranked in the top 5 in many categories as we saw above.  Who’d a thunk that?  This will be a good test for the high-powered Fins offense.  The Fins offensive line is banged up to say the least.  Robert Hunt is likely out, and Kendall Lamm as well, but center Connor Williams should return.  Can the patchwork line hold up against a formidable Chiefs’ defensive front?  Can they open up any holes for Raheem Mostert? Mike McDaniel’s quick passing game should somewhat neutralize the Chiefs’ pass rush, but I fear the running game will suffer.  I think the Fins’ O-line problems negate the overall advantage.  Advantage Even.

Fins defense vs. Chiefs offense.  Or, more specifically, Dolphin safeties vs. Travis Kelce.  Eagles’ tight end Dallas Goedert burned Fins’ safeties repeatedly.  This is an area Vic Fangio has not fixed and could be the Chiefs’ biggest advantage in the game, except for maybe the kicking game (see below).  The good news is that it looks like Javon Holland will play.  It appears that Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey, and Holland will all get to play together for the first time.  And even better, that takes Eli Apple off the field.  The Chiefs’ wide receivers are not scary, but Kelce will be a load to handle.  This could be the first game where the Fins’ defense wins a game, but I gotta see it to believe it.  Advantage Chiefs.

Kicking game.  You want to talk about a HUGE advantage?  KC kicker Harrison Butker is 18 for 18 in field goals, including a long of 60.  He has yet to miss an extra point.  Fins kicker Jason Sanders has hit 7-9 field goals for 77.8%, which is tied for 28th in the league.  Chiefs’ punter Tommy Townsend is an All-Pro, although having a bit of an off-year, currently 18th and 14th in gross and net average.  Fins’ punter Jake Bailey is 24th and 17th.  Advantage Chiefs.

Intangibles.  There are a lot of intangibles on both sides.  The Fins want to finally prove they can compete with the elite.  Tyreek Hill competes against his old mates and against a team that didn’t want to pay him more than $58 million, so he jumped ship.  Individually, I think Hill gets his revenge and should have a big day.  As for the coaching, I have to side with Super Bowl-winning coach Andy Reid over Mike McDaniel.  Coach Mac did beat a multiple Super Bowl winner last week.  Can he do it again?  Can he finally win a ‘big one?’ As for the Chiefs, they got embarrassed last week in Denver.  They showed nothing in an ugly 24-9 loss at Denver last week.  As you know, I always favor the ‘bounce back’ factor.  The Fins traveled early to Germany to get acclimated, while the Chiefs chose to fly later in the week.  Will the Chiefs have jet lag?  Lastly, there will be no Taylor Swift in attendance as she’s off touring.  That has to help the Fins.  Advantage Fins.

The pick. I thought before the Eagles game, the Fins would lose to Philly and beat KC; however, the Fins have since incurred a rash of injuries.  The kicking advantage bugs me.  The Fins’ recent performance against top teams bugs me.  The Chiefs’ bounce-back factor bugs me.  I’ve gone back and forth on this game.  I was convinced the Chiefs would win and cover the 2.5 points.  Now I’m on the fence.  The Fins have not proven themselves against a quality opponent.  Yet.  I think the game will be lower-scoring than most think.  Sanders FG for the win and cover. Fins 24-23.