Just three short weeks ago, the Dolphins beat the Jets on the road quite handily 34-13.  The Fins dominated every statistical category except turnovers, turning the ball over three times and creating two takeaways.  So, has anything changed with these two teams since they played each other?  I would have answered, “no,” but then last week happened.  The Jets were headed nowhere but then pulled off a big upset when they beat down the favored Houston Texans 30-6 in Zach Wilson’s return as the Jets’ starting quarterback.  Miami had faced Tim Boyle when they last played.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins shockingly blew a 27-13 lead with only three minutes left in the fourth quarter and lost to the lowly Tennessee Titans 28-27.  NFL teams winning that late in the game had not lost in 767 consecutive games.  Not only that, the Dolphins literally added injury to insult. Miami suffered several key injuries and enter  this week’s game about as unhealthy as they’ve been all year.  Once again, the tale of the tape heavily sides with Miami, but overall confidence is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago.


  • Total Offense – yards per game. Fins 1st at 424 / Jets are dead last 32nd at 267.
  • Points per game. Fins 2nd at 32 points per game / Jets 29th at 16 points per game.
  • Passing yards per game. Fins 1st at 279 / Jets 29th at 177.
  • Rushing yards per game. Fins 2nd at 145 / Jets 28th at 90.
  • Total Defense – yards per game. Fins 9th at 308 / Jets 5th at 299.
  • Points allowed per game. Jets 8th at 20 points allowed / Fins 21st at 23 points per game.
  • Passing yards allowed per game. Fins 12th at 213 / Jets 2nd at 167 per game.
  • Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 7th at 96 / Jets 28th at 132.
  • Turnover Margin. Fins 19th at -2 / Jets 23rd at -5.
  • Sacks per game. Fins 2nd at 3.2 / Jets 14th at 2.8.


  • Tagovailoa is first in passing yards, second in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating. The Jets’ on-again-off-again starter Zach Wilson is 24th, 24th, 27th, and 30th in those categories.
  • Tyreek Hill is ranked is first in reception yards, second in receptions, and first in touchdowns. Jets’ top receiver, Garrett Wilson, is 15th in receptions, 21st in yards, and tied 51st in touchdowns.
  • Raheem Mostert is sixth in rushing yards per game and first in rushing touchdowns. De’Von Achane is third in yards per game and first in average per carry.  Jets’ running back Breece Hall is 27th in rushing yards and has scored only two touchdowns.
  • Miami’s leader is Bradley Chubb, is 23rd with six sacks. Jets’ defensive lineman Bryce Huff is 41st with five.


Fins offense vs. Jets defense.   The Jets defense is no slouch.  They are ranked fifth overall, second in passing yards per game allowed, and eight in points allowed per game.  That matches up well with the Fins’ high-powered and highly-ranked passing offense.  That’s pretty much a push.  However, the edge here seems to favor the Dolphins’ running game against the Jets rushing defense.  That is a two against 28 match-up.  If the Dolphins are to make hay, it appears to be running the ball this week, especially if Hill doesn’t play or is less than full capacity.  Advantage Fins running game.

Fins defense vs. Jets offense.  The Dolphin defense looked like world-beaters for the last six games up until four minutes to go against the Titans when everything fell apart.  Safety Jevon Holland looks unlikely to play, same as fellow safety DeShon Elliott.  Linebacker Duke Riley is in for the injured Jerome Baker, yet this unit is still formidable.  They’re going up against a weak Jets offense and a below-average quarterback.  Once again, this its safe to speculate that this unit will be more valuable than the offense this week.  Advantage Fins.

Kicking game.  Jets’ kicker Greg Zeurlein is an amazing 27 for 28 in field goals, good for 96%, and  third in the league.  In stark contrast, Miami kicker Jason Sanders has hit only 14-18 field goals for 78%, which is 28th in the league.  Ex-Dolphins punter Thomas Morestead is averaging a solid 49.2 gross yards per punt and 42.2 net yards, good for eight and 13th in the league.  Fins punter Jake Bailey is 27th and 17th at 45.5 and 41.8.  Big Advantage Jets.

Intangibles.  The Jets play the spoiler role.  They’d love nothing better than to knock off their AFC East rivals, who are fighting for playoff supremacy.  For Miami, they’re at a bit of a crossroads.  They’ve lost their invincibility at home.  They’re banged up.  Sure, they’re more than likely playoff-bound and have something to play for, but they could be mentally down without their on-the-field leader in Hill.  Advantage Even.

The Dolphins had been cruising along at 9-3, dominating weaker opponents one by one, especially at home.  That invincibility is gone now, and what’s left is a lot of unknowns.  Most concerning being that are several injuries at key positions.  At the time of this writing, it is unclear whether Hill will play.  Ankle injuries are tricky.  Rest is one of the best antidotes.  If I were Miami, I would sit Hill and get him as healthy as possible for the brutal Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills finish.  I think they can scrape by this week, but it won’t be easy.  The odds-makers know something as well.  Before that Monday Night loss, the Dolphins were favored by 13.5 points.  That line is now down to 8.5.  Assuming Hill does not play or is not as effective as he would be at 100%.  The Dolphins should win, but will not cover.  Fins win 21-14.

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