The Miami Dolphins have their first winning streak of the season after their 34-19 win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, moving their record to 4-6. The Dolphins still have a long way to go to get back into the playoff picture, but they have another winnable game against the Patriots this week.
Before we get to that, Sunday’s win was an incredibly odd game. The Dolphins didn’t punt for the first time in the Mike McDaniel era, scoring on every drive except for one before the end of the first half.
In fact, neither team punted in the first half, as both teams executed long, drawn-out drives down the field. The Dolphins defense eventually got some stops in the second half, allowing the team to pull away.
Let’s dive into the film to see how Miami has become such an efficient offense in recent weeks.
Dolphins All-22 Review vs. Raiders
How Did Miami’s Offense Become So Efficient?
The easy answer to the question above is the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but it goes much deeper than that. The Dolphins have always been an efficient offense with Tua at the helm, but how they’re doing it now is much different.
Since Tua’s return, the Dolphins’ offense is second in EPA per play (0.189), third in success rate (50%), and first in dropback EPA (0.388). During the season’s first seven weeks, the Dolphins ranked 32nd, 31st, and 29th in those categories.
What’s changed for the Dolphins is that they are becoming efficient without generating many big plays. Miami is last in the NFL in plays of more than 20 yards this season, and it’s 20th since Tua came back into the lineup. Last season, the Dolphins finished fourth in plays of more than 20 yards.
Since returning to the lineup, Tua has peppered teams in the short area of the field, which continued against the Raiders. On passes between zero and five air yards, Tua was 12-of-16 for 75 yards and a touchdown.
Teams are playing so far off the line of scrimmage to account for Tyreek Hill‘s and Jaylen Waddle‘s speed that the checkdowns are not only high-percentage looks but potential explosives with YAC.
Doesn’t look like much, but these types of plays going to a tight end who can actually create YAC is such a big upgrade for the offense. pic.twitter.com/3extfEOVSU
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) November 18, 2024
This play doesn’t look like much, but Jonnu Smith’s ability to make defenders miss in the open field on such a simple concept is part of why Miami’s offense is humming. In previous seasons, these targets went to Durham Smythe, who doesn’t have the athletic juice to make this play.
Smith’s added playmaking and similar contributions from De’Von Achane seem to have made Tua more confident in taking these easy throws.
In the past, Tua would only take these throws for a certain period of time before getting antsy and making a critical mistake, trying to force the ball somewhere he shouldn’t. Since returning from injury, Tua has been tagged with just four turnover worthy plays, per PFF.
Three of those came against the Rams, which is largely an outlier for how Tua has played since returning from injury.
Because Tua is taking so many checkdowns, his — and the offense’s at large — film looks pretty unimpressive at first glance. However, Tua has stepped up in a ton of huge spots, especially third down.
Tua is throwing some ropes on these conversations, too. My favorite from this week: https://t.co/H7nnIzjMqx pic.twitter.com/l83A1a1W5N
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) November 18, 2024
This was Tua’s best throw against the Raiders. It’s third and 8 with 37 seconds left in the third quarter, and the Dolphins are only up 17-12. The Raiders run what looks like a variation of Cover-2, with safety Tre’von Moehrig robbing the middle of the field.
Teams do this constantly against the Dolphins because Tua targets the middle of the field a lot. Concept-wise, the Dolphins use short motion to get Hill a head start, but it looks like the receivers are just running to space and sitting down — something Miami does a lot.
The Raiders have an excellent call for this, as Moehrig is sinking right into the throwing window, but Tagovailoa anticipates so well that he’s able to thread the needle and hit Hill for the clutch conversion. This is A+ level quarterbacking, and it’s been a consistent trend in recent weeks.
Since Tua’s return, he has the second-highest third down conversion rate on passes (56.1%), trailing only Patrick Mahomes. Overall, Miami’s 60.4 percent conversion rate leads the league in that span, per TruMedia.
Watching Tua create outside the pocket the past few weeks has been great. pic.twitter.com/QqWvWaxIth
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) November 18, 2024
This touchdown largely put the game away for the Dolphins, and it’s a play Tua wasn’t making in previous seasons. The Raiders threatened six rushers at the snap but only rushed four, dropping Divine Diablo (#5) and getting Maxx Crosby (#98) an almost running start off Tua’s right.
Miami blocks up that part of things well, but the pressure comes from an interior twist off Tua’s left. The looper gets a free run at Tua, but he’s got enough awareness (and quickness) to avoid the rush and get outside the pocket.
Hill makes an excellent hustle play coming from the other side of the field, giving Tua a wide-open target in the end zone. Nothing about this play is overly special, but it’s such a significant development for Tua and the Dolphins offense.
Tagovailoa finished 4-of-4 outside the pocket, accounting for 2.70 EPA per play against the Raiders. This is coming after he was credited with 86 passing yards outside the pocket against the Rams, which was the most of his career.
All of this led to one of Tua’s most efficient performances as a pro. His 63.1 success rate on Sunday was his highest of the season and the third highest of the Mike McDaniel era.
Is This Sustainable?
This is a difficult question to answer because this is uncharted territory for the Dolphins in the McDaniel era, but in recent NFL history, the answer is no.
Miami constructed the entire offense out of big plays and hitting intermediate throws with the occasional vertical sprinkled in. Through Tua’s injury and how defenses are playing them, they’ve become a death-by-1,000-cut offense the past few weeks. That’s had mixed results overall, as the team is 2-2, losing to the Cardinals and Bills at the last second.
The offense did plenty to win those games, but this offensive approach further tightens the team’s room for error. The defense is more to blame for those losses, but you can also point to the safety against Arizona and Mostert’s fumble against Buffalo as small errors that cost Miami in close games.
Because the Dolphins are so reliant on third down conversions, and Tua playing better than his natural traits outside the pocket, all it takes is one screw-up on a money down to unravel the entire operation.
Since Tua’s return, the Dolphins have had 22 third downs of seven or more yards, which ranks 14th in the league. That’s not horrible, but it’s not an ideal place to be, either. For reference, the teams at the top of that list (Bears, Titans, Texans, Colts) are some of the NFL’s most dysfunctional offenses.
The Dolphins aren’t in danger of becoming those teams, but assuming they will continue converting third downs at their current pace is wishful thinking at best and delusional at worst.
The Dolphins deserve credit for proving they can win this way, especially considering it was one of their most significant weaknesses in previous seasons. That said, it’s still not the team they’re built to be.
If Miami wants to dig itself out of its 4-6 hole and reach the postseason, relying on Tua to be this efficient in every game isn’t smart. That’s not a dig on Tua — no NFL team should expect its quarterback to be this efficient.
Eventually, the Dolphins must find a balance between their play in the last four weeks and their play from last season. For now, Miami has found an offensive game plan that works, which is a far cry from how the team started the season.
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