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Now that gambling in America has finally become mainstream, at least in most states, NFL Sundays have become much more entertaining.
Football has always been something that my son and I have bonded over. Now that we both can put a little action on it, it’s become even more interesting.
I’m not a big gambler; I’m never going to strike it rich, nor am I ever going to lose my shirt. I dabble with a few bucks here and there. Many people I know have an unwritten rule of “don’t gamble on your favorite team.” Sundays can be stressful enough. I don’t prescribe to that rule. I like to throw down on the Dolphins since I’m going to be watching the game anyway. And never (well almost never) do I wager against the Dolphins.
Everyone has their “gambling strategy”. Some people swing for the fences. Some people are very conservative. I tend to be the latter. My typical go to is a 3 or 4 leg parlay with legs in the -200 to -300 range that when linked together give a decent plus line. I will say though, this season I’ve been unofficially crowned the King of the 3 out of 4 legs winner.
The Miami Dolphins opened the week as 7 point favorites at home against the Patriots. The service I use has seen that line move a half of a point to -7.5. A dreaded number in the gambling world. While I think the Dolphins can cover that number, it’s not something I want to entertain in a division-rival game. They tend to be a little closer than against a non-division foe.
This week I’m looking at a 4 leg parlay with Jonnu Smith being the anchor. Obviously odds will be different as the game gets closer and depending on the outlet you use.
My Picks:
Jonnu Smith – Over 3.5 receptions (-105) – Jonnu Smith has been on a tear lately, and I don’t really see that slowing down. Teams are still way too scared to let Hill or Waddle beat them deep, and with Tua’s new focus on taking what’s given, Jonnu should still continue to find room to work. Smith has had at least 4 catches in 5 out of the last 6 games.
Jonnu Smith – Over 39.5 yards (-165) – As stated above, Smith has been the benefactor of the constant deep safeties game plan defenses have been employing to stop Hill and Waddle. Again, Smith has eclipsed the 40-yard barrier in 5 out of the last 6 games.
De’Von Achane – Over 4.5 receptions (-125) – Achane currently leads the Dolphins in receptions with 46. In games Tua has started, DeVon Achane has averaged 6 receptions a game. Again, Tua has more often than not been taking the high percentage throws due to the focus on 10 and 17 and Achane, like Smith, has been a big part of that.
Miami Dolphins – Over 23.5 points (-218) – I was tempted to push the envelope here and go to 26.5 to garner a little better odds but like Tua, I looked to take the higher percentage play. Since Tua’s return the Dolphins are averaging 27.8 points per game. The Patriots have a middle of the road defense ranking 20th overall, so I don’t see them holding this high octane offense under 24 points.
Jonnu Smith – over 3.5 catches -105
Jonnu Smith – over 39.5 yds -165
De’Von Achane – over 4.5 catches -125
Miami Dolphins – over 23.5 pts -218
4 Leg Parlay +420
My Son’s (Jacob) Picks:
Jonnu Smith – Over 3.5 receptions (-165) – Like I stated above he also feels that Jonnu will continue to eat due to the coverage(s) being used to limit Reek and Waddle. He got different odds than I did.
Jaylen Waddle – Over 40.5 yards (-110) – The Patriots defense is ranked 22nd in the league defending wide receivers and Waddle is due for a breakout game. Not that 40 yards is a breakout but it’s a number easily hit with one flick of Tua’s wrist.
Tua Tagovailoa – Over 245.5 yards (-115) – The Patriots give up 230 yards a game through the air so Tua’s total seems very obtainable this week.
Jonnu Smith – over 3.5 catches -165
Jaylen Waddle – over 40.5 yds -165
Tua Tagovailoa – over 245.5 yds -115
3 Leg Parlay +305
I’m expecting the Dolphins to handle their business at home, the question is, will it be a lucrative win?
