Believe it or not, we have completed 14 weeks of NFL football and are getting closer to the playoffs every day. But there is still a lot to be decided, especially in the AFC wild-card race, and the Dolphins are in the midst of it.

As of now, the three wild card spots in the AFC are taken by the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos, who all share the same record of 8-5. Right after them are the Colts and Dolphins at 6-7, which means they are both two games behind a playoff spot with only four games left to play. It might look nearly impossible, but there is a path for the Dolphins to make the playoffs.

The Dolphins’ first step would be, of course, winning out, and looking at their schedule ahead, it seems like they have a decent chance of doing so. They play the Texans, 49ers, Brown, and Jets. The Texans are a good team, but they have had some ups and downs this season, and they are pretty beatable.

The 49ers are having a relatively bad season, considering they made it to the Super Bowl last year and now they are 6-7 and in the bottom of their frisky division, so that’s also a winnable game. The Browns are the Browns, meaning they are a bad football team, and anyone can beat them. And the Jets, well, the Jets are the Jets, and the Dolphins just beat them, so I am sure they will be able to do it again.

So, assuming the Dolphins win the rest of their games, some more stuff still needs to happen. In my eyes, the clearest path for them is to catch up to the Broncos. The Broncos remaining schedule consists of the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs. So, as long as they lose two of those games full of tough opponents, the Dolphins should be able to catch up. I don’t know who owns the tiebreaker between the Dolphins and Broncos, so I guess it would be good if they lost three of those games.

The problem is this coming week; they are playing the Colts, who we know have the same record as the Dolphins and own the tiebreaker over them, so if the Colts beat the Broncos, the Dolphins would need the Colts to lose one of their other reminding games, which are against the Titans, Giants and Jaguars, all pretty terrible teams. So, it might be better for the Broncos to beat the Colts because the Broncos play teams that could beat them.

Technically speaking, the Dolphins could also catch up to the Chargers or Ravens, but realistically speaking, that will be much harder than catching up to the Broncos, even if they have the same record. The Chargers play the Buccaneers, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders.

The first two could go either way, really, but the last two are pretty winnable for the Chargers. The good thing is that they play the Broncos, so someone has to lose (barring a tie, of course). But in a way, it could be worse because it could also all work out against the Dolphins (like it usually does because we always get unlucky).

The Ravens play the Giants (easy win), the Steelers (though game), the Texans (decently challenging game), and the Browns (you never know with Jamies Winston), so they could also technically lose to games. The Dolphins could catch up, and it would go to the tiebreaker, which I don’t know who it belongs to, honestly.

At the end of the day, it will pretty much come down to the Dolphins winning out. I am almost certain that one of those teams will lose two games and that the Colts will lose at least one game, so it is all up to the Dolphins to win out. The possibility of that actually happening is decent, but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic because we all know how the Dolphins are.

So, after all my “super-accurate,” “super-expert,” and “super-advanced” calculations, I give the Dolphins a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs. And if you were wondering, that number is not based on anything real but just my random thoughts.