The Miami Dolphins find themselves at a crossroads regarding their quarterback situation. Tua Tagovailoa has proven to be a capable starter but concerns about his ability to take the team deep into the playoffs persist. After a devastating season finishing at 8 and 9 loss, the question of whether he is the long-term answer looms larger than ever. Examining his performance, contract, and replacements, the Dolphins must weigh their options carefully if they aspire to become true Super Bowl contenders.
Recent Struggles and Playoff Implications
The Dolphins defeat against the Houston Texans in week 14 left their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Finishing the season at 8 and 9, Miami did not make the postseason. Tagovailoa completed 29 of 40 passes for 196 yards, a single touchdown, and three interceptions—one of the worst outings of his career. Those costly turnovers prevented any real opportunity for a comeback and raised concerns about his ability to perform in high-stakes situations.
Although Tagovailoa has played well under head coach Mike McDaniel, he has struggled in critical matchups. His health has been an ongoing issue, but even when available, his performances in crucial games have left much to be desired. The Dolphins have built an explosive offense around him, yet their ceiling remains unclear due to his limitations in the most challenging moments.
Statistical Overview of Tua’s 2024 Season
Tagovailoa is completing a career-high 73.7 percent of his passes, throwing for 2,652 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His efficiency in short passes remains among the league’s best, and he is on pace for his third consecutive season with a passer rating above 100.0.
Despite these strong numbers, there are concerns about how much of his production is due to Miami’s offensive scheme rather than his individual ability. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tagovailoa has the lowest average throw time in the league at 2.25 seconds, with only Cooper Rush (2.30 seconds) also under 2.47 seconds. Additionally, he leads the NFL in the lowest average depth of target at just 6.0 yards per throw, indicating a reliance on short, quick passes rather than deep, explosive plays.
Struggles with Deep Passing and Cold-Weather Games
Tagovailoa has struggled when asked to throw deep. On passes traveling 10 or more yards downfield, he has completed 56-of-103 attempts for 1,105 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 87.24. These numbers illustrate the drop-off in his effectiveness when forced to push the ball downfield.
A notable weakness in Tagovailoa’s game is his performance in cold-weather matchups. He is 0-5 in games played under 40 degrees, with a passer rating of just 77.4. If Miami hopes to make deep playoff runs, this is a significant concern, as road games in colder climates could pose serious challenges.
Contract Situation and Future Cap Implications
The Dolphins committed to Tagovailoa with a four-year, $212.5 million extension, making him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. This contract reflects the team’s belief in his potential, but also places financial constraints on their ability to move on in the near term.
While some fans may call for a change, cutting Tagovailoa in 2025 would result in an $83 million dead cap hit, making it financially impossible. In 2026, the dead cap hit drops to $45.2 million, allowing for a net cap savings of $11 million. A more realistic scenario for the Dolphins to reevaluate their quarterback situation would be in 2027 or later, but for now, their focus remains on maximizing their current roster’s potential. As they prepare for upcoming matchups, analysts are already weighing in on the best NFL picks today, assessing how Miami’s strategy can evolve in the coming seasons.
Backup Quarterback Struggles
Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle have all seen playing time due to Tagovailoa’s injuries, but none have shown promise as long-term solutions. The three quarterbacks have combined for 125 pass attempts with just one touchdown and one interception, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt or lower. This further emphasizes the need for Miami to secure a viable backup or potential successor.
Drafting a Future Quarterback
With financial constraints limiting immediate options, the Dolphins could look to draft a quarterback on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke and Texas Longhorns’ Quinn Ewers are potential targets, but Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel appears to be the best fit for McDaniel’s offensive system.
Gabriel, a left-handed quarterback with poise, mobility, and quick decision-making, has extensive experience running an up-tempo offense. Though he lacks elite arm strength, his ability to execute McDaniel’s system efficiently could make him an ideal long-term project for Miami. If the Dolphins aim to develop a reliable backup with starter potential, Gabriel might be the best option available.
Potential Free Agent Quarterbacks
If the Dolphins opt for a free-agent quarterback down the line, 2026 could present intriguing possibilities. Players like Geno Smith and Brock Purdy might be available, depending on their respective team situations. Either would provide a veteran presence and, potentially, a more stable option if Miami decides to move on from Tagovailoa.
The Reality of Miami’s Ceiling
While Tagovailoa remains a talented quarterback, the Dolphins’ ceiling as a contender appears to be capped with him under center. The combination of his struggles in cold weather, limitations in deep passing, and ongoing injury concerns leaves Miami with a difficult decision. If they truly want to contend for a Super Bowl, they must start considering alternative options sooner rather than later.
Conclusion: What Should Miami Do?
The Dolphins have invested heavily in Tagovailoa, and he has delivered solid results. However, questions remain about his ability to take them to the next level. With a massive contract tying him to the team for at least two more years, Miami must use that time to explore potential replacements. Whether through the draft or future free agency, the Dolphins should be actively searching for a quarterback who can elevate them beyond just being a playoff team and into true championship contenti
Miami needs to start grooming a QB to replace Tua. It won’t be easy. They though Skylar was the answer and that was a major mistake.
The reason they signed Tua to the big contract is simple it’s because Grier and also McDaniel are tied to Tua. Grier and McDaniel have fooled Ross into thinking that he’s their franchise QB and was the correct draft pick. This is similar to what happened with Tannehill and we all know how that turned out. When the owner is too blind to see it this is what happens and everyone will get fired because of it. If you don’t have an elite QB in the NFL that QB will get everyone fired and usually in three years or less. Ross has only delayed the inevitable and wasted another year that he and the fans cannot afford.