It’s incredible what a difference a year makes. Last year, the Miami Dolphins were supposed to overtake the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East as people felt the Bills would take a step back with the team having a talent drain with their salary cap. People thought they would soar to new heights despite the Dolphins’ collapse at the end of 2023 and the players returning from injury. Well, that didn’t happen.

The Dolphins started out badly, losing their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a month and unable to overcome a 2-6 start. While the Bills ran away from everyone in the division and finished with a 13-4 record, they were one win shy of reaching the Super Bowl. 

Now, as we are about to head into 2024, everything has changed about the outlook for the Dolphins and the rest of the division. People feel the Bills will run away with the division, which may be true. People feel the New England Patriots, with new head coach Mike Vrabel, will compete for a wild card spot and have overtaken the Dolphins in the division, and the Dolphins are heading for a spiraling downhill season that I’m not sure about. While the New York Jets are embarking on yet another regime change with a new GM and first-time head coach in Aaron Glenn, yikes, am I getting old, as I was a teenager when he was a rookie?

No one knows what to expect from the Jets. 

I understand why people aren’t high on the Dolphins, given how their season imploded last year and looked so unprepared at certain positions, such as the backup quarterback, and a lack of signings on the defensive line after losing Christian Wilkins and others in free agency.

I also understand why everyone so high on the Bills lead by Joshy Poo Allen. People feel they are the most complete team in the NFL, and it’s their year to win it all and overtake the Kansas City Chiefs. I’m not going that far with them. The Patriots should be better under coach Vrabel and with the team spending money on players, but I’m not sold about them making a run at the playoffs or overtaking the Dolphins. The Dolphins swept the Patriots last year, including winning in New England without Tagovailoa.  

The Dolphins are in the middle of a soft rebuild, especially on defense. Everyone in the secondary starting last year is gone after Jalen Ramsey is traded in a month or so, and the Dolphins drafted three new defensive linemen. They also lost Calius Campbell and left tackle Terron Armstead, who retired. The Dolphins will have second-year tackle Patrick Paul replacing him, and the Dolphins added two new offensive linemen in the draft.

They also tried to upgrade the backup quarterback position by signing Zach Wilson in free agency and drafting Quinn Ewers in the seventh round. From that standpoint, I understand why experts are down on the Dolphins. 

However, some experts think the Dolphins might only win six games.

Really??

I find that hard to believe. I understand they have inexperience in the secondary, questions about Tagovaila staying healthy, the lack of a toughness-physicality mindset, and Tyreek Hill‘s drama about whether he wants to stay or go.

Some think the Dolphins have a hard schedule—my ass they do. The Dolphins don’t have a difficult schedule. 

Most point to a 4-game stretch in which they play the Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bills, and Washington Commanders that will derail this team. I get the Bills and the Ravens as they are two of the best in the AFC. The Commanders had a great year last year and snuck up on people. This year, they have expectations, and how will they handle them?

The Falcons people love their team, and I don’t know why. There are questions at quarterback, and they have made some desperate moves over the last year. They traded a third-round pick for Mathew Judon, and it didn’t work out. They made the most head-scratching move on draft night when they traded back into the first round and gave up a first-round pick in next year’s draft to draft a pass rusher.

What team does that?

A desperate team, thinking they are something they aren’t. I think the Dolphins can beat them. 

I think the Dolphins will do better this year because they revamped their defensive line with Kenneth Grant to pair with Zach Seiler. Their defense will get back pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jalean Phillips to complement Chop Robinson. I think their front seven will help cover up their inexperience in the secondary. It will catch up with the team, but a good pass rush can collapse the pocket and force the quarterback to throw the ball earlier than expected. The Dolphins also return Hill and Jaylen Waddle with Tagovailoa, along with tight end Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins revamped their running back room with Alexander Mattison and rookie Ollie Gordon, who are both bigger and more physical running backs to complement Devon Achane and Jaylen Wright.

It will be interesting to see how Mike McDaniel uses them all. The Dolphins may have some growing pains with Paul at left tackle and rookie Jonah Savaiinaea, but they should get better as the season progresses. Plus, Austin Jackson returns from injury, and the line play fell off after he got hurt, so I would expect this group to be better. 

Is this team as talented as last year?

No, but this team got younger with players such as Grant, Savaiinaea, and others with upside. They needed to get younger, as last year, they signed a bunch of older free agents who were past their prime. The rejuvenation of young talent should help this team get better. 

I don’t think the Dolphins will win the AFC East, but they are better than people think and can be a playoff team. I also think they are still better than the Patriots, unlike what some experts feel. Am I concerned about the secondary? Yes, I am, but I think they will be fine if they get a pass rush, which I feel will be better. Am I worried about McDaniel leading this team? Yes, but maybe a humbling season will refocus him and this team. Otherwise, he’s gone. 

The bar is low, and that’s the way I like it because people don’t expect this team to be good, which could fuel its success and prove the doubters wrong. 

 

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