As the summer begins, we fantasy about football in the fall and know training camp is right around the corner. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Free agency and the draft are behind us, and other than some minor moves that will be made towards the end of camp, what you see is what you are going to get with the Dolphins roster. This is my favorite time of year to grab every team’s schedule and project how many wins they will have. This is fun for a variety of reasons, one of which is… You can also profit from it.
I’ve been overseeing and working in betting content for over a decade, and NFL win totals are among my favorite exercises. There are pools I join in August that deal with win totals, and sportsbooks have a variety of different prop bets you can make in this area. So, for my debut article on Dolphinstalk.com, let’s dive right in on the Miami Dolphins’ win total!
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Let’s start with the line. All major books have the Dolphins’ win total over/under at 8.5 wins with the juice heavy to the under (-180 to -190) and a plus number on the over (+150 to +160). Simply put, the books are charging you a higher tax to bet under 8.5 wins than if you bet the over 8.5 wins, meaning they are getting a lot more money and bets placed on the under than the over. Using game lines as an example, you could say the under is “favored” in this scenario. -180 to -190 on the under is equivalent to being favored by 3.5 points, but not laying the points and just taking the favorite to win outright.
While there are alternative numbers you can bet (6.5 wins, 10.5 wins), the 8.5 is the one with the most normal juice. If you did under 10.5 wins, you’d have to pay -700 to win 10,0 and no one is doing that. Conversely, the over 10.5 is +450, so if you are really, really high on the Dolphins getting to 11 wins, go ahead and take that value and let me know how it goes ;).
- 8.5 wins (-180 under, +155 over)
- 10.5 wins (-700 under, +450 over)
- 6.5 wins (-205 over, +170 under)
For the sake of this article, we are going to focus on if the Dolphins can get to 9 wins or if betting them to win 8 or less is the better bet.
Breaking down win totals is not an exact science. One way to do it is to put a W or L on all 17 games and go from there, but not all games are what they look like on paper, as you have to factor in time of year, rest, travel, and a whole bunch of other things. I like to approach it from multiple directions: game-by-game as well as division record, followed by how they will do against the two other divisions they play, and then the other three games, which are based on previous year standings.
Let’s start with the AFC East:
- The Dolphins have swept the season series with the Patriots the last two years and in three of the last four seasons winning 8 of last 9 with a 5-1 record under Mike McDaniel. I do think the Patriots will be better this season, but not great. The trip to Foxborough is Week 18 in January, which is never good, so we will settle for 1-1 here.
- Miami has shown no ability to beat the Bills, even with better rosters than they currently have. They’ve lost 13 of the last 14. And if I am being honest with myself and trying to place money on a win total, I have to give Miami 0-2 here. A win just sweetens the pot if you are on the over, but I would not count on that when doing the math.
- Much like vs. the Patriots, the Dolphins have dominated the series with the Jets of late, winning 8 of 10, losing in Week 18 last season. The home game is a Monday nighter, so I think the Dolphins win that. The road game is 1 p.m. in December, so it shouldn’t be too cold. To be conservative, we will go 1-1, but I can see 2-0.
- That leaves Miami 2-4 in division play, but maybe 3-3 if they can sweep either the Patriots or the Jets.
Now, looking at the rest of the schedule:
- Miami plays the AFC North for their AFC division, and that’s not good for win totals. The North put two teams in the postseason last year and three the year before. The Bengals just missed after a horrible start last year, and the Steelers just got Aaron Rodgers for what that’s worth nowadays. The only weak team in the division is the Browns. Miami should be able to win in Cleveland in October, but the Pittsburgh game is MNF on the road, and I don’t like that. The Ravens and Bengals come to Hard Rock in Primetime, but to be honest, both are better teams. There are scheduling issues with both these games I will get into later. I am going 1-3 vs. the North, with a chance at 2-2. That puts Miami at 3-7 on low end and 5-5 on high end.
- The NFC division is the NFC South, which is better news than the AFC North. I have Miami ranked higher in my power rankings than both the Panthers and Saints and just below the Falcons. The Bucs visit South Florida in late December, so it’s not much of an advantage there. I can comfortably say 2-2 with a chance at 3-1. So that’s 5-9 on low end and 8-6 on high end.
- The three remaining games are based on Miami’s 2nd-place AFC East finish last season, so they get the Colts (2nd place AFC South) in Indy, the Commanders (2nd place NFC East) in Spain, and the Chargers (2nd place AFC West) at home in October. This is the tricky part. This could legitimately be 3-0 or 0-3 or somewhere in between. The Dolphins and Tua have split their 2 meetings with Herbert and the Chargers. The Commanders look to be a much better team than Miami, but the game is in Spain, and while I think the Dolphins are better than the Colts, Miami lost in Indy last year. I think 2-1 with a win in Indy and a split vs. the other two.
That means, if you look at it top to bottom, we are 7-10 on the low end and 10-7 on the high end, which makes a lot of sense and doesn’t necessarily help us loving either side of the 8.5. The books aren’t dumb and did the same exercise we did.
Now looking deeper, Miami plays at Carolina after a Monday night game vs. the Jets on short rest. Not saying they lose, but it does factor the math in your head when looking at low and high ends. They play both Baltimore and Cincinnati at home on short rest, which doesn’t make me lean high-end or think they can steal one. The only true advantage I think Miami has on their schedule is starting the season vs. only one team that made the 2024 playoffs over their first 5 games (Bills). That could result in a very good start that jump-starts the season, or it could go the other way.
At the end of the day with this exercise, if high end is 10-7, Miami would have to win all but two of the toss up games we talked about and the way it lines up with short rest vs. Baltimore and Cincy and cold weather game in New England, I am not betting on that.
You could also skip the entire exercise we just did (what fun would that be??) and look at straight point spreads. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins are favored in 6 games and an underdog in 11 of them. Not promising according to the wise guys if you wanted to go that angle.
I think Miami can win 9 games, but if I am putting money on the line, an 8-9 record like last year makes more sense. For me, this is a no play as there are far more favorable win totals out there to bet, but I lean under 8.5 before over.
