Many 2027 NFL Mock Drafts are rolling out already, and it will be an iconic draft with so many quarterbacks going in Round 1 and so much top talent at other positions being a part of this draft.
Luke Easterling, a draft analyst for Althon Sports, released his 2027 Mock Draft, and, no surprise, he has Miami selecting first and taking…
Round 1, Pick #1: Arch Manning, QB, Texas
“Malik Willis gives the Dolphins a solid starting option in the short term, but if the Dolphins end up with the top pick, his presence likely wouldn’t prevent them from making Manning their franchise quarterback of the future.”
Draft Profile: Bio
Arch Manning grew up at Isidore Newman School in New Orleans, the same school where his uncles Eli and Peyton played. He rewrote both of their passing records before graduating, finishing his prep career with 8,599 passing yards, 115 touchdowns, and just 20 interceptions across four years as a starter. Every major recruiting service rated him a five-star prospect and the consensus number one overall recruit in the 2023 class.
Manning enrolled at Texas and redshirted behind Quinn Ewers in 2023, seeing only mop-up snaps in two games. His 2024 role expanded to ten appearances, mostly in designed packages, though an Ewers injury gave him two starts. He completed nearly 68 percent of his passes across 90 attempts, throwing nine touchdowns against two interceptions and flashing serious playmaking ability in limited reps.
The 2025 season was his first as the full-time starter. Manning threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns with seven interceptions across 13 starts, adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores. Texas finished 10-3, winning seven of their final eight games after a rocky start.
Scouting Report: Strengths
- The deep ball pops off his hand. Watch the Mississippi State rail shot or the Arkansas tape and it’s obvious.
- Shorter stuff comes out clean too; the release is quick and compact with natural zip on in-breakers.
- Moves well in the pocket without panic. Subtle climbs and slides, not just bailing at the first sign of rush.
- When things do break down, he can flat-out run. Defenders who lose contain pay for it in chunk yardage.
- Defenses are stuck choosing between spying him and covering his receivers. That conflict is schematic gold.
- By November he was throwing guys open, not waiting for separation. The Sam Houston and Vandy tape shows real growth.
- Got louder at the line as the season went on. Started IDing protections with some real bark to it late in the year.
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
- Misses too many easy ones. Balls in the dirt, throws sailing high on simple outs. 61 percent won’t cut it.
- Root cause is his feet. When pressure arrives his base gets narrow and the release point wanders with it.
- Makes it worse by holding the ball, waiting for the perfect picture instead of taking the checkdown and moving the sticks.
- Five of his seven picks came in the first five weeks. That kind of clustering points to a confidence problem early on.
- Still working through progressions too slowly against good coverage. Locks on to his first read and forces it.
Scouting Report: Summary
Manning fits best in an offense that can use his legs early in drives to settle him into rhythm. He is not a pure pocket passer right now and will need play-action, bootlegs, and designed runs to keep defenses from sitting on his throwing game. His deep-ball accuracy and arm talent give any coordinator a real weapon down the field, but the short and intermediate accuracy needs to tighten up before he can be trusted to run a timing-based system at the NFL level. The good news is that his passing improved meaningfully from September to December in 2025, and scouts who only watched the early film are working with incomplete information.
The biggest question with Manning is how much of the early-season inconsistency was developmental and how much was structural. His mechanics fall apart under pressure in ways that need hands-on coaching, not just more reps. A team with a strong quarterback development staff and a veteran ahead of him on the depth chart would be the ideal landing spot. Asking him to start Week 1 as a rookie carries real risk. His internal clock needs to speed up, his checkdown usage needs to increase, and he has to prove he can sustain accuracy over full games against NFL-caliber coverage.
The tools are there. Excellent speed for the position, a quick release, legitimate deep-ball talent, and a football family that has produced two Super Bowl winners. Manning still needs to show that the back half of 2025 was the real version of him and not just a hot streak against a softer schedule. Another year at Texas would help his development, but if he declares, the arm, the athleticism, and the upside will keep him firmly in early first-round conversation.
