New Data from Hard Rock Bet Reveals the Most Predictable NFL Teams Ahead of this season
With $2 million on the line in Hard Rock Bet’s new NFL Survivor Contest, new analysis has revealed the team players can put their trust in their survival: the Indianapolis Colts. An analysis of all 32 NFL teams across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 regular seasons ranks the Colts as the most predictable team in football, whilst the Steelers rank as the most unpredictable.
The findings arrive ahead of Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor Contest, a free-to-enter competition exclusively available to eligible players in Florida. The premise is simple: players select an NFL team to win, survive if they are correct, and are eliminated if their pick loses or ties. Teams can only be used once during the contest, meaning knowing when – and when not – to trust a favorite could prove crucial. Hard Rock Bet’s contest runs from Week 4 through Week 17, with two selections required during both Week 12 and Week 16. Any players remaining after Week 17 will share the $2 million cash prize pool equally.
The NFL’s Top Most Predictable Teams:Â
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Unpredictability Points
|
Why are they predictable? |
|
1
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
43.5
|
The Colts only lost 5 games out of 23 as favorites in the last 3 years and won 7 out of 28 as underdogs compared to the Ravens, who average almost 50% wins as underdogs.
|
|
2
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
46.5
|
The Seahawks only lost 4 out of 29 games as favorites, which is less than any other team in the NFL.
|
|
3
|
LA Chargers
|
47
|
The Chargers have a low-chaos profile, only winning 29% of their games as underdogs in the last 3 seasons.
|
|
4
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
48
|
In the last three seasons, the Raiders have only caused 7 upsets in 38 games as underdogs, meaning that fans rarely get blindsided by an upset.
|
|
5
|
Miami Dolphins
|
54.5
|
The Dolphins have an almost perfect trade-off when it comes to losses as a favorite (6 in 26 games) and as underdogs (6 in 25 games).
|
The Indianapolis Colts recorded the lowest Unpredictability Points total (43.5), potentially making them one of the more historically readable teams for players planning their Survivor strategy.
In second position, the Seahawks are the NFL team that has lost the least games they entered as favorites, making them a great pick for Survivor players across the whole season.  The Chargers on the other hand, have only won 29% of the games they started as an underdog. One to keep for the Chiefs game.
The NFL’s most unpredictable teams
The wider analysis found teams whose results have repeatedly challenged expectations, the below table is ranked by Unpredictability Pts (3-Year Total):
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Upset Involvements + (Unpredictability Pts)
2023-24 |
Upset Involvements + (Unpredictability Pts)
2024-25 |
Upset Involvements + (Unpredictability Pts)
2025-26 |
Unpredictability Pts (3-Year Total) |
|
1
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
9 (36)
|
8 (23)
|
8 (37)
|
96
|
|
2
|
Carolina Panthers
|
2 (6)
|
6 (34.5)
|
10 (49.5)
|
90
|
|
3
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
8 (19)
|
5 (23.5)
|
9 (42)
|
84.5
|
|
4
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
5 (28)
|
4 (22.5)
|
8 (31.5)
|
82
|
|
5
|
Green Bay Packers
|
8 (30.5)
|
5 (19.5)
|
6 (29)
|
79
|
|
6
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
5 (30.5)
|
6 (18.5)
|
8 (29.5)
|
78.5
|
|
7
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
7 (29.5)
|
4 (21)
|
4 (27.5)
|
78
|
|
8
|
Cleveland Browns
|
4 (19)
|
7 (26.5)
|
6 (31.5)
|
77
|
|
9
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
5 (32.5)
|
7 (31)
|
2 (12)
|
75.5
|
|
10
|
New England Patriots
|
7 (32.5)
|
4 (24.5)
|
5 (17.5)
|
74.5
|
|
11
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
7 (21)
|
5 (22)
|
7 (30.5)
|
73.5
|
|
12
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
7 (35.5)
|
1 (2.5)
|
10 (35.5)
|
73.5
|
|
13
|
New York Giants
|
5 (25.5)
|
4 (27.5)
|
4 (18.5)
|
71.5
|
|
14
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
4 (31.5)
|
9 (28)
|
2 (11)
|
70.5
|
|
15
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
7 (22.5)
|
6 (14)
|
7 (32.5)
|
69
|
|
16
|
Tennessee Titans
|
7 (30.5)
|
7 (22.5)
|
3 (15.5)
|
68.5
|
|
17
|
Buffalo Bills
|
5 (25)
|
4 (11.5)
|
7 (32)
|
68.5
|
|
18
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
1 (11.5)
|
6 (29)
|
9 (26)
|
66.5
|
|
19
|
Washington Commanders
|
6 (24.5)
|
5 (27)
|
5 (15)
|
66.5
|
|
20
|
Detroit Lions
|
4 (20)
|
3 (11)
|
6 (34.5)
|
65.5
|
|
21
|
Denver Broncos
|
7 (34)
|
2 (13.5)
|
6 (16)
|
63.5
|
|
22
|
Houston Texans
|
7 (27.5)
|
3 (12.5)
|
7 (20)
|
60
|
|
23
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
3 (13.5)
|
6 (19)
|
3 (26)
|
58.5
|
|
24
|
New Orleans Saints
|
8 (20)
|
5 (20.5)
|
4 (17)
|
57.5
|
|
25
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
6 (31)
|
4 (8.5)
|
6 (17.5)
|
57
|
|
26
|
New York Jets
|
6 (18.5)
|
6 (24.5)
|
5 (13)
|
56
|
|
27
|
Chicago Bears
|
5 (15.5)
|
3 (18)
|
6 (22)
|
55.5
|
|
28
|
Miami Dolphins
|
2 (17)
|
5 (13.5)
|
5 (24)
|
54.5
|
|
29
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
5 (20.5)
|
3 (17)
|
4 (10.5)
|
48
|
|
30
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
6 (16)
|
2 (4)
|
9 (27)
|
47
|
|
31
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
4 (18.5)
|
6 (21)
|
2 (7)
|
46.5
|
New Data from Hard Rock Bet Reveals the Most Predictable NFL Teams Ahead of this season
New Data from Hard Rock Bet Reveals the Most Predictable NFL Teams Ahead of this season
With $2 million on the line in Hard Rock Bet’s new NFL Survivor Contest, new analysis has revealed the team players can put their trust in their survival: the Indianapolis Colts. An analysis of all 32 NFL teams across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 regular seasons ranks the Colts as the most predictable team in football, whilst the Steelers rank as the most unpredictable.
The findings arrive ahead of Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor Contest, a free-to-enter competition exclusively available to eligible players in Florida. The premise is simple: players select an NFL team to win, survive if they are correct, and are eliminated if their pick loses or ties. Teams can only be used once during the contest, meaning knowing when – and when not – to trust a favorite could prove crucial. Hard Rock Bet’s contest runs from Week 4 through Week 17, with two selections required during both Week 12 and Week 16. Any players remaining after Week 17 will share the $2 million cash prize pool equally.
The NFL’s Top Most Predictable Teams:Â
Rank
Team
Unpredictability Points
1
Indianapolis Colts
43.5
The Colts only lost 5 games out of 23 as favorites in the last 3 years and won 7 out of 28 as underdogs compared to the Ravens, who average almost 50% wins as underdogs.
2
Seattle Seahawks
46.5
The Seahawks only lost 4 out of 29 games as favorites, which is less than any other team in the NFL.
3
LA Chargers
47
The Chargers have a low-chaos profile, only winning 29% of their games as underdogs in the last 3 seasons.
4
Las Vegas Raiders
48
In the last three seasons, the Raiders have only caused 7 upsets in 38 games as underdogs, meaning that fans rarely get blindsided by an upset.
5
Miami Dolphins
54.5
The Dolphins have an almost perfect trade-off when it comes to losses as a favorite (6 in 26 games) and as underdogs (6 in 25 games).
The Indianapolis Colts recorded the lowest Unpredictability Points total (43.5), potentially making them one of the more historically readable teams for players planning their Survivor strategy.
In second position, the Seahawks are the NFL team that has lost the least games they entered as favorites, making them a great pick for Survivor players across the whole season.  The Chargers on the other hand, have only won 29% of the games they started as an underdog. One to keep for the Chiefs game.
The NFL’s most unpredictable teams
The wider analysis found teams whose results have repeatedly challenged expectations, the below table is ranked by Unpredictability Pts (3-Year Total):
Rank
Team
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
1
Pittsburgh Steelers
9 (36)
8 (23)
8 (37)
96
2
Carolina Panthers
2 (6)
6 (34.5)
10 (49.5)
90
3
Atlanta Falcons
8 (19)
5 (23.5)
9 (42)
84.5
4
Baltimore Ravens
5 (28)
4 (22.5)
8 (31.5)
82
5
Green Bay Packers
8 (30.5)
5 (19.5)
6 (29)
79
6
Philadelphia Eagles
5 (30.5)
6 (18.5)
8 (29.5)
78.5
7
Cincinnati Bengals
7 (29.5)
4 (21)
4 (27.5)
78
8
Cleveland Browns
4 (19)
7 (26.5)
6 (31.5)
77
9
San Francisco 49ers
5 (32.5)
7 (31)
2 (12)
75.5
10
New England Patriots
7 (32.5)
4 (24.5)
5 (17.5)
74.5
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 (21)
5 (22)
7 (30.5)
73.5
12
Kansas City Chiefs
7 (35.5)
1 (2.5)
10 (35.5)
73.5
13
New York Giants
5 (25.5)
4 (27.5)
4 (18.5)
71.5
14
Arizona Cardinals
4 (31.5)
9 (28)
2 (11)
70.5
15
Minnesota Vikings
7 (22.5)
6 (14)
7 (32.5)
69
16
Tennessee Titans
7 (30.5)
7 (22.5)
3 (15.5)
68.5
17
Buffalo Bills
5 (25)
4 (11.5)
7 (32)
68.5
18
Dallas Cowboys
1 (11.5)
6 (29)
9 (26)
66.5
19
Washington Commanders
6 (24.5)
5 (27)
5 (15)
66.5
20
Detroit Lions
4 (20)
3 (11)
6 (34.5)
65.5
21
Denver Broncos
7 (34)
2 (13.5)
6 (16)
63.5
22
Houston Texans
7 (27.5)
3 (12.5)
7 (20)
60
23
Los Angeles Rams
3 (13.5)
6 (19)
3 (26)
58.5
24
New Orleans Saints
8 (20)
5 (20.5)
4 (17)
57.5
25
Jacksonville Jaguars
6 (31)
4 (8.5)
6 (17.5)
57
26
New York Jets
6 (18.5)
6 (24.5)
5 (13)
56
27
Chicago Bears
5 (15.5)
3 (18)
6 (22)
55.5
28
Miami Dolphins
2 (17)
5 (13.5)
5 (24)
54.5
29
Las Vegas Raiders
5 (20.5)
3 (17)
4 (10.5)
48
30
Los Angeles Chargers
6 (16)
2 (4)
9 (27)
47
31
Seattle Seahawks
4 (18.5)
6 (21)
2 (7)
46.5
Related Posts
Post Game Wrap Up: DISASTER! Dolphins COLLAPSE to 0-4 After Vikings Loss
Dolphins O-Line vs Vikings Blitz: The Matchup That Decides Week 4
The Dolphins May Be Better Than We Thought | Bo & Joe See REAL Progress