If you’re looking to gain an edge in NFL betting, you need to understand the concept of betting against the spread (ATS). ATS betting evens the playing field by assigning a point spread to each team, with favorites needing to win by more than the spread and underdogs “covering” if they lose by less.
Analyzing team trends and splits is crucial to identifying smart ATS bets. And if you’re a fan of ‘casinon utan spelpaus‘ as the Swede’s say, you know that finding an edge is the key to long-term success. In this article, we’ll dive into the Miami Dolphins’ performance in various situations to help you spot profitable betting angles.
Dolphins ATS trends as favorites vs underdogs
When it comes to betting on the Dolphins, you need to pay close attention to their role as favorites or underdogs, especially on the road. Over the last three seasons, Miami has struggled mightily as a road underdog, going just 7-7-1 ATS (50%) and 3-12 SU (20%). That’s a clear sign to fade the Dolphins when they’re getting points away from home.
But when the Dolphins are favored at Hard Rock Stadium with Tua Tagovailoa under center? That’s a different story. Since 2022, the Dolphins have gone an impressive 9-1 SU and ATS in home games started by Tua. If you see Miami favored at home with Tua leading the charge, you’d be wise to back them.
The lesson here is simple: avoid the Dolphins as road underdogs, but pounce on them as home favorites with their star QB at the helm. Keep these trends in mind, and you’ll be well on your way to making smart bets on Dolphins games.
Home vs road splits
Let’s take a closer look at the Dolphins’ drastic difference in performance at home compared to on the road. Since 2022 with Tua Tagovailoa starting, Miami boasts an impressive 9-1 record at Hard Rock Stadium. But when they travel? It’s a completely different story – the Dolphins are just 5-6 away from home with Tua under center.
This disparity was on full display in 2023. Miami went a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their own building, but failed to cover in all three road games against quality opponents in the Eagles, Chiefs and Bills. The Dolphins clearly have a significant home-field advantage working in their favor, but they’ve struggled mightily to carry that success over to road environments. If you’re looking to bet on Miami, backing them as home favorites and fading them as road ‘dogs has been a profitable approach.
Bye week trends
If you think the Dolphins are tough to beat at home, just wait until they’re coming off a bye week. Miami has been absolutely dominant in games following their annual week off, going 6-2 straight up and 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight post-bye contests. Even more impressively, the Dolphins have gone ‘under’ the total in five of their last six games after a bye.
Much of the credit for Miami’s post-bye success has to go to head coach Mike McDaniel. His ability to keep the team focused and prepared despite the disruption to the normal weekly routine has been evident. So when you see the Dolphins coming off a bye, it’s wise to consider backing them to cover the spread and taking the ‘under’ on the total. McDaniel’s squad has consistently come out sharp and avoided rust after their week off.
Divisional trends
When it comes to betting on the Dolphins in divisional games and the playoffs, there are a few key trends you need to know. Let’s start with the bad news: Miami has struggled mightily in the wild-card round, going just 6-7 both straight up and against the spread all-time. That’s a clear sign to fade the Dolphins when they’re playing on the road to start the postseason.
But here’s the good news: when the Dolphins host the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium, they’ve been money in the bank. Miami has won and covered in six of their last seven home games against Gang Green. So if you see the Dolphins favored at home against the Jets, it’s time to pounce.
The takeaway? Avoid the Dolphins in wild-card games, especially on the road. But when they’re hosting an inferior divisional opponent like the Jets, feel confident backing Miami to get the job done.
Let’s recap the key betting angles we’ve identified for the Dolphins:
– Fade Miami as road underdogs, especially against top-tier competition
– Back the Fins as home favorites with Tua Tagovailoa starting under center
– Bet on the Dolphins to cover and hit the under in their first game after a bye week
– Back Miami as home chalk against the Jets, but avoid them in wild-card road games
Of course, these trends shouldn’t be the only factors you consider when betting on Dolphins games. You still need to account for matchups, injuries, and other situational spots that can impact the outcome. But by using these ATS splits as a starting point, you’ll be well on your way to making smarter, more profitable wagers on Miami. Trust the trends, do your due diligence, and watch your bankroll grow.
