It’s no fun when you pick a team and they fall behind 28-0 in the second quarter. That’s what Detroit did last week. I still managed a 7-6 week overall in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge and 57-49 (53.8%), but it actually moved me up 30 spots to 51st. Somehow, I managed a 4-1 week in the pick five challenge but gained no ground. Go figure. 21-14 (60%) overall and hanging around in 21st place. This week, the theme is ‘bounce back’ as several teams took really bad losses, and I look for them to rebound with strong games (yes, Lions, that includes you).
BILLS -8.5 vs. Bucs. Bounce back game #1. The Bills got embarrassed last week, losing to the Pats. They have not looked great, but they’re playing Baker Mayfield.
COMMANDERS +6.5 vs. Eagles. This may be the worst pick of the week, or it may end up being the best. Quite simply, it doesn’t make any sense, but I’m counting on the Eagles to let down after a big win Sunday night against the Fins. The line is surprisingly small. Maybe Vegas agrees with the letdown theory. The easy pick is certainly Philly, but I have to be true to my contrarian self.
FALCONS -2.5 @ Titans. I have not backed Atlanta and QB Desmond Ridder since week 1. This is a default pick. The Titans seem to have given up. They traded a top cornerback, and there are rumors of trading stud running back Derrick Henry. That’s a lot of distraction.
STEELERS +2.5 vs. Jags. Pittsburgh Head Coach Mike Tomlin has an incredible ATS record as a home dog, covering 62.5%, including 2-1 this year. I think the Steelers are finally turning the corner.
JETS -2.5 @ Giants. The battle for NY in NJ. The line is dictating this pick for me. It’s under 3, so I’m taking the favorite. Had it been over 3, I would have taken the Giants.
COLTS -1.5 vs. Saints. Saints’ QB Derrick Carr is on the no-bet list, so it’s the Colts covering at home.
VIKINGS -1.5 @ Packers. The historic betting trends favor the Packers at home when they play the Vikings. However, that history is all Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Last I looked, Jordan Love was the QB. I don’t like Kirk Cousins, but I give him the edge over Love. “HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT!!”
RAMS +6.5 @ Cowboys. Bounce back, and makes no sense pick #2. The Rams have continued to be good one week and bad the next. They lost at home to the Steelers last week, so it’s bounce-back time. Other than week 1, Dallas has underwhelmed.
PANTHERS +3.5 vs. Texans. Makes no sense pick #3. The Panthers are 0-6 and can’t move the ball under rookie QB Bryce Young. The Texans, on the other hand, have overachieved with their rookie QB CJ Stroud. I keep thinking the Panthers are due. Maybe they can keep it close.
SEAHAWKS -3.5 vs. Browns. Simply put, the Browns are not the same team with PJ Walker at QB. Browns’ DC Jim Schwartz let me down last week with his supposed #1 defense. Hence, it’s the home team for me.
BENGALS +5.5 @ 49ERS. I catch a break here as the line was set before it was announced that Niners’ starting QB Bryce Purdy would miss the game. Even at 3.5, I’d take the Bengals in a must-win for them.
BRONCOS +7.5 vs. Chiefs. Makes no sense pick #4. The Broncos are on my no-bet list, and the Chiefs looked like world-beaters last week against the Chargers. A divisional game and a home dog of +7 points is 60% to the good so I’m taking it.
CARDS +8.5 vs. Ravens. Makes no sense pick #5. I’ve lost with the Cards for the past two weeks, taking them as heavy underdogs. Third time’s the charm? This game is similar to the Eagles and Chiefs. Both were impressive and both played weak teams. Here’s hoping for another letdown.
CHARGERS -8.5 vs. Bears. Bounce back game #3. Justin Herbert does not look comfortable in his new offense. They looked bad last week. The Bears pulled an upset last week with unheralded and unheard-of QB Tyson Bagent. I took the Bears last week and went against the Chargers as well. I’m looking for both teams to play the opposite this week.
LIONS -8.5 vs. Raiders. Bounce back game #4. As mentioned above, the Lions got embarrassed last week. The Raiders have Jimmy G. back at QB so I’m a little wary. I’m hoping Detroit’s Head Coach Dan Campbell has these guys angry and ready to play.
FINS -9.5 vs. Pats. Bounce back game #5. As we all know, the Fins left a lot to be desired in last week’s 31-17 loss to the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Pats upset Buffalo. This is a perfect ‘opposite’ game for me, similar to the Chargers/Bears. The Fins have been magic, covering big spreads at home this year. I’m hoping Tyreek is healthy and will play. If so, I have the Fins winning 35-17.
