Week 4 was a week to survive.  We remained in contention with another 8-8 week which puts us 36-28 (56.2%) for the year in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge and a surprising 3-2 week in the big money pick 5 challenge for a 12-8 (60%) yearly total.  We moved further down to 51st from 31st in the Slater standings and are tied 49th in the pick 5 challenge but still in contention 5 games back.  Last week’s ‘makes no sense’ pick of the Jets +9.5 over the Chiefs came through.  This week, I’m going to continue that contrarian method, so these picks are not for the faint of heart. We are going with 9 underdogs in 14 games.

COMMANDERS -6.5 vs. Bears.  I had the Bears originally as part of the contrarian picks; however, I read some trends that changed my mind.    In the last 14 games, the Bears are a mere 2-11-1 against the spread (ATS) and 0-14 overall.  Secondly, Justin Fields is 8-20-1 ATS in his career.  Lastly, favorites of 3 points or more have gone 90-67-1 (57%) on Thursday games.  It’s hard to go against those trends, isn’t it?  I’m playing the percentages.

JAGS +5.5 vs. Bills in London.  The Bills are coming off an emotional high whipping the Fins last week AND have to travel to London.  The Jags won in London last week and don’t have jet lag.  Going against popular opinion here.

STEELERS +3.5 vs. Ravens.  I told myself, ‘Enough picking the Steelers.’  Alas, they are 9-0 ATS coming off a 20+ point loss and 4-0 the past two seasons.  Next, in the Ravens/Steelers series, the underdog of 3+ points is 17-1-3.  Finally, the Steelers are 17-5-3 as a home dog.

PATS -1.5 vs. Saints.  Last week, I got fooled into thinking Derrick Carr was hurt and wouldn’t play so I took the Saints.  Wrong and wrong.  I’m not doing that again no matter how bad Mac Jones is.

COLTS -0.5 vs. Titans.  I changed my mind on this one.  Jonathan Taylor is back for the Colts.  Reason enough.

PANTHERS +8.5 @ Lions.  A makes no sense pick.  Nothing more, nothing less.

TEXANS +1.5 @ Falcons.  I can’t go with the Falcons QBs.  Ridder has shown nothing.  The Texans and C.J. Stroud are improving and playing hard for coach Ryans.

CARDINALS +3.5 vs. Bengals.  I’m off the Bengals bandwagon until they right the ship.  Hoping AZ can keep it close at home.

RAMS +4.5 vs. Eagles.  I changed my mind on this one as well as this will be another contrarian pick that makes no sense.  Maybe getting Cooper Kupp back with help the Rams make a game of it.

VIKINGS +5.5 vs. Chiefs.  Exact same as above.  Going with the upset for the home team over the mighty Swifties.

BRONCOS -1.5 vs Jets.  Man, talk about an ugly game.  Sorry Luke Wilson, I’m not convinced.  Russell Wilson, time to get your act together.

49ERS -3.5 vs. Dallas.  I think the 49ers are for real and Dallas isn’t.  I like Dallas’ D, but the 49ers have covered 13 straight games as a home favorite excluding bye weeks.  I’m sold.

RAIDERS +2.5 vs. Packers.  Really? THIS is the Monday night game?  I don’t like either team.  I’ll take the points here.

GIANTS +10.5 @ Dolphins.  I know what you’re thinking.  Man, this guy doesn’t know anything.  That’s probably true, but I’m 4-0 picking Fins games this year. This game could be 62-0 Fins and I hope it is; however, I think this game could be a letdown for them.  The Giants looked so bad Monday night.  I don’t see a lot of motivation coming from Miami.  Can McDaniel get them ready to play?  Maybe for the second half. I think they start out slow and Daniel Jones will be scrambling a la Josh Allen.  In the end, the Fins win but don’t cover.  Fins 31 Giants 27.

PICK 5

JAGS +5.5 vs. Bills in London

PATS -1.5 vs. Saints

STEELERS +3.5 vs. Ravens

BRONCOS -1.5 vs. Jets

49ERS -3.5 vs. Cowboys