It would not be a stretch to call this game a Super Bowl preview at this stage of the NFL regular season.  Consider the following head-to-head statistics after the first seven weeks:

  • Total Offense – yards per game. Fins #1.  Eagles #2.
  • Points per game. Fins #1. Eagles #5. Fins 37. Eagles 26.
  • Passing yards per game. Fins #1. Eagles #9.
  • Rushing yards per game. Fins #1.  Eagles #2.
  • Total Defense – yards per game. Eagles #9. Fins #20.
  • Passing yards allowed per game. Fins #19. Eagles #20.
  • Fins #3. Eagles #5
  • Rushing yards allowed per game. Eagles #2. Fins #20.
  • Points allowed per game. Eagles #16. Fins #26. Eagles give up 21. Fins 26
  • Takeaway/Giveaways. Eagles T17. Fins T22. Eagles -1. Fins -4
  • Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown tied 5th with 42 catches. Tyreek #1. 136 yards per game. Brown 4th
  • De’Von Achane #3, and Raheem Mostert #7 in rushing yards. DeAndre Swift #5. Achane #1 yards per game. Swift #7. Mostert #11.
  • Jake Elliott 16-18 for 88.9% Tied 14th. Jason Sanders is just 5-7 71.4%, and 32nd out of 33 kickers.

Who has the edge?  What are the key matchups?  The offenses are fairly even; however, it’s the defensive units that there is a clear difference.  The Eagles rank statistically better than the Dolphins in almost every defensive statistic.  The big difference is that the Eagles allow only an average of 16 points, while the Dolphins allow an average of 26.  I think Tua, Tyreek, and the passing game will be fine, but they will need help.  Passing game? Advantage Fins.

One of the key matchups is the Dolphins’ #1 rushing attack going up against an Eagles defense ranked #2 in rush yards allowed.  Can the often-criticized Dolphin offensive line hold their own against the physical Eagles defensive front?  I think for the Dolphins to win this battle, they need to rush for over 100 yards and rush a minimum of 20 attempts to keep the Eagle front line honest. Advantage Even.

Another key match-up is the Eagles’ #2 ranked offense against the Vic Fangio-led #20 Fins defense.  This is a clear checkmark for the Eagles.  AJ Brown going up against Eli Apple is a disaster waiting to happen.  Will Fangio change his scheme and allow Xavien Howard to shadow Brown?  I think that’s the Dolphins’ best chance at minimizing Eagle chunk plays.  Advantage Eagles.

I think another key match-up defensively is the pass/run threat of Jalen Hurts.  The Fins have struggled with the likes of running threat quarterbacks like Josh Allen.  I think Fangio needs to employ a shadow on Hurts and force him to throw rather than use his legs.  Advantage Eagles.

This game could come down to a game-winning field goal.  Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott has been solid at 89%, including 4 out of 5 from beyond 50 yards and a long of 61!  Meanwhile, Mr. Jeckyll and Hyde Jason Sanders has not snapped out of his two-year slump, hitting only 71% of his field goal tries.  Advantage Eagles.

Lastly, there are always the intangibles.  The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets and will be angry come Sunday night.  The home crowd will be worth the typical 3 points the oddsmakers give the home team.  Noise will be a factor for the Dolphin offense.  Coaching?  Eagles Coach Nick Sirianni has certainly had success in his short tenure.  A Super Bowl appearance and a 5-1 start to the season.  He’s proven he can win big games.  Mike McDaniel, on the other hand, needs a big-game win.  The Dolphins flopped bigtime in their biggest game of the year against the Bills, a 48-20 drubbing on the road.  Defense, coaching, and a clutch-kicking game.  That’s how you win big games.  Advantage Eagles. 27-24.