Once again, the Miami Dolphins are a heavy home favorite Sunday, this time against the New England Patriots.  I think the Pats got the Dolphins’ attention by beating the big, bad Buffalo Bills last week, so I don’t think they will be complacent.  Here are some key statistics to consider through eight weeks of the NFL season.

TEAM STATS

  • Total Offense – yards per game. Fins #1.  Pats #25.
  • Points per game. Fins #1 at 34 points per game. Pats #31 at a mere 14 points per game.
  • Passing yards per game. Fins #1. Pats #21.
  • Rushing yards per game. Fins #1.  Pats #27.
  • Total Defense – yards per game. Pats #9. Fins #20.
  • Passing yards allowed per game. Pats #12. Fins #20.
  • Fins #3. Pats #25.
  • Rush yards allowed per game. Pats #13. Fins #19.
  • Turnover Margin. Fins #23. Pats #32.
  • Points allowed per game. Pats #24 at 25 points per game. Fins #27 at 27 points per game.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

  • Tua is 1st in passing yards, tied 3rd in TDs, and 1st in passer rating. Mac Jones is 21st, 17th, and 23
  • Tyreek Hill is ranked 1st in reception yards, 3rd in receptions, and 1st in TDs.  Pats’ top receiver is Kendrick Bourne, who is ranked 38th, 25th, and 14th.
  • Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane rank 6th and 7th in rushing yards, and Mostert is 1st in rushing TDs. The Pats’ top running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, is far down the list at 33rd in rushing yards and has only 2 TDs.
  • Here’s an interesting stat. Jason Sanders has only eight attempts and is 6-8 75%, and only 29th out of 33 ranked kickers.  But Pats’ rookie Chad Ryland is only 8-12 (67%) dead last out of 33 kickers.  With a windy forecast on Sunday, I don’t expect many field goals made.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Fins offense vs. Pats defense.  On paper, this looks like a mismatch.  The high-powered Fins offense should be able to both run and pass against a slightly above-league-average Pats defense.  The Pats need to pressure Tua, yet only rank 25th in sacks.  The Fins offensive line, with or without starting Center Connor Williams, should be able to provide Tua ample time to throw and also open enough holes for Fins’ running backs to run through.  My over/under for running success is normally 100 yards, and I think they could get that in the first half alone should Mike McDaniel call a proportionate number of running plays. Advantage Fins.

Fins defense vs. Pats offense.  This is the nothing special vs. the nothing special match-up.  The Fins’ defense is getting healthy and may get Xavien Howard, Nik Needham, AND Jalen Ramsey back.  I can’t think of any bigger game changer than that.  Eli Apple is still a disaster and leaves the door open for Mac Jones to make several big chunk plays downfield.  With him on the sidelines, the Pats offense will have to be more patient with shorter throws and more targets to their tight ends. If the three injured secondary members return, it’s Advantage Fins.  Otherwise, I rate this match-up Even.

Kicking game.  Sunday’s forecast is for a blustery day.  Neither kicker has been very good this year, and neither punter is special. Advantage Even.

Intangibles.  The Pats gained back some level of respectability last week, beating the Bills.  The Fins got another reality check in their loss to the Eagles.  The Fins have the home crowd and have been successful at beating lower-echelon teams at home quite handily.  Coaching?  Mike McDaniel has already beaten Coach Bill once this year and is 3-1 vs. the legendary coach.  Advantage Fins 35-17.