NFL Free Agency 2024 is almost here; it “officially” starts on Wednesday, but we know deals will be leaked and announced on Monday when the legal tampering period starts. The Dolphins are in an interesting position at this moment as they are roughly $18 million over the cap, which they will have to clear by Wednesday at noon Eastern time to become cap compliant with the start of the new league year.
Then, to sign any players “officially” on Wednesday, once free agency begins, they would need to begin to clear more salary cap space.
While we know clearing salary cap space in the NFL can easily be done, but there are always consequences. If you cut a player, how much dead money does that leave on the cap, and how much will it cost to replace said player with someone else?
You can restructure deals and convert players’ salaries into a signing bonus, which means you are tied to players longer from a salary cap perspective. So who they should restructure is a tricky game. Hence, with players like Terron Armstead and Bradley Chubb, two guys with a long injury history, you don’t want them to count on your salary cap in 2026 and 2027 when their best days are behind them, or they are off the team.
Some restructures make sense for Miami right now, like Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill. Zach Sieler is another name to watch as well, and Miami may restructure a deal or two here to shave off that next $18 million to become cap-compliant. The issue is, once at or under the cap, how much will Miami have to spend to add new players?
We know that in the first few days and weeks of free agency, all of the big-name guys will go off the board quickly. They get their big-money deals, and unless Chris Grier has a rabbit up his sleeve, Miami will not be a player in any of those names. Hence, why are Robert Hunt, Christian Wilkins, and maybe even Andrew Van Ginkel not coming back to the Dolphins? Simply put, Miami doesn’t have the salary cap space.
I think the Dolphins are going to let the teams with a lot of money spend this year, like New England, Chicago, Houston, Washington, and Tennessee, go on a spending spree and get those big-name and big-ticket items.
Miami is going to lay back until that second wave of free agency, see who is still out there in late March, and then possibly start making moves. Then, wait and play the post-June 1st game once Xavien Howard’s $18 million comes off the salary cap, and they will have more breathing room.
I’m not saying they won’t sign anyone this week, but I think it would have to make perfect sense and check a lot of boxes for it to happen.
I know it’s not exciting; I know it’s not fun.
As a Dolphins fan, you will see a lot of good players signing with other teams, even division rivals, while it seems like no news from the Dolphins is out there this week.
But understand that Miami has a roster filled with many good players and some superstars. And they are going to have to fill their needs the old-fashioned way through the draft with rookies on cheap rookie contracts, as well as taking flyers on free agents who fell through the cracks or who are maybe a little older and on their last legs in the NFL.
In the next seven to 10 days, some NFL teams will be shopping on Rodeo Drive, while some teams (like Miami) are gonna sit back and wait for a discount sale at Walmart.
You can’t be “ALL IN” every year.
You can’t be going on “SHOPPING SPREES” every year.
Miami has done that in years past, and now, with the salary cap maxed out, the Dolphins have to take a different approach.
A well-measured approach where it’s about not throwing money around; it’s about frugal and wise spending.
Not to mention, there is the compensatory pick game Chris Grier has to play here. If Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt leave as free agents, as many expect, the Dolphins are in line for two compensatory picks in the 2025 draft. The only way they wouldn’t get compensatory picks is if Miami signs a bunch of big-name guys to big contracts to offset those losses.
For one, because of the cap, Grier can’t do that. And second, he won’t want to possibly lose extra 3rd and 4th round draft picks in 2025.
So, this upcoming week may be quiet, and the week after may be quiet, too. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Miami try a value signing, maybe with an aging vet, on a one-year deal, but nothing earth-shattering.
If there is a trade to be made, I could see Grier taking that approach, as maybe Miami takes on a bad contract if it means a draft pick is attached, and a trade doesn’t count against the compensatory pick formula. But the contract can’t be too bad due to Miami’s cap situation.
So I wouldn’t expect any fireworks this week in Free Agency, but with Chris Grier I guess ya never truly know.
