We have hit March, and you know what that means?! That’s right! It is time for my full-proof, 100% iron-clad Free Agency plan that ALWAYS works out (I’m kidding, of course, but I like to think I have good ideas).
Many decisions must be made as the Miami Dolphins gear up for Free Agency. Will QB Tua Tagovailoa get a contract extension? Will the Dolphins find a way to bring back Christian Wilkins once he hits the open market? Chris Grier and Brandon Shore have done a great job in contract structure to provide flexibility. And it couldn’t have come at a better time.
After the NFL announced the cap number of 255M, the Dolphins were provided some relief for the salary cap. The team already announced the departures of DE Emmanuel Ogbah and long-time DB Xavien Howard (I will talk about these moves in a minute). More work is needed, so GM Tom Ernisse is here to provide you with the answers.
Let’s first start with the overall cap number of $255,826,613. As of the timing of this article, the Dolphins sit $-31,638,623M over the cap, 31st in the NFL. Let’s first start with the players who may be shown the door:
ROSTER CUTS:
*Howard and Ogbah numbers calculated in the current cap number
DB Xavien Howard (Post June 1st)- Move saved 18.5* (2/23)
DE Emmanuel Ogbah (Pre June 1st)- Move saved 13.7* (2/23)
RB Jeff Wilson Jr– Wilson hasn’t provided the spark the Dolphins envisioned when trading him for a 5th-round pick in 2022. He was re-signed last off-season on a 2-year deal. While the deal is cap-friendly, the emergence of De’Von Achane makes Wilson expendable. Dolphins get 2,895,000 in cap relief. (Cap Space After Move $-28,743,623)
LB Duke Riley– Riley wasn’t great in 2023, especially in extended playing time. The Dolphins will be upgrading the LB room, and I can’t see Riley being a fit here. The team saves 2,500,000.
(Cap Space After Move $-26,243,623)
DB Keion Crossen– Crossen was primarily used on special teams in 2022 before suffering a season-ending injury before the season started. I can’t see Miami carrying his cap hit, especially coming off a “freak” injury that cost him 2023. Move opens up another 2,990,000 in relief. *editors note, Crossen released 3/5)
(Cap Space After Move $-23,253,623)
LB Jerome Baker—This one has me scratching my head. On the surface, it makes sense. Baker has no guaranteed money in 2024, and Anthony Weaver may feel he is not a fit. That’s why he makes my list of cuts. He has been a good player for Miami since he was drafted in 2018. The team may decide to designate a pre-6/1 cut here to save 9,500,000.
(Cap Space After Move $-13,753,623) *editors note, Baker release official 3/5)
So, after all these moves, the Dolphins still find themselves in a hole. The next section explains how they get their cash flow back (thank you, Brandon Shore).
RESTRUCTURES/EXTENSIONS:
WR Tyreek Hill– Dolphins can look at extending Tyreek Hill which can push more money down the board with some void years, for this article though, we are doing a simple restructure. Hill is going nowhere, so this makes sense. Dolphins will net $12,537,000 in savings (Cap Space After Move $1,216,623)
DB Jalen Ramsey – Another Dolphins who won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. Ramsey was a huge part of the defense’s success. His restructure will give the Dolphins a whopping $18,217,000 in cap relief.
(Cap Space After Move $19,433,623)
LB Bradley Chubb—I know this particular move will get mixed results. For me, it’s who is going to give you the most cap. Chubb’s restructure will inflate his 2025 and 2026 cap figures to over 25M, but if you are in win-now mode, this has to happen. I wouldn’t be shocked if they offer an extension here as well. The move will give the team $14,043,750 in additional space.
(Cap Space After Move $33,477,373)
DL Zach Sieler– Sieler just got his extension last offseason. It was a smart move by the team to get that done, knowing they would likely lose Christian Wilkins. Now lets restructure his contract to free up more space, a tune of $5,628,000 sounds good to me.
(Cap Space After Move $39,105,373)
QB Tua Tagovailoa- I saved this one for last because it’s clearly a hot button. I don’t see how the Dolphins NOT give Tua an extension. The extension is good and potentially bad for a lot of reasons. But this move opens up a good chunk of cap space while giving the team more flexibility for the upcoming free agency period. I won’t bother with all the numbers, but I figure the extension is 4 additional years, $210M. The move gives the team $15,636,000M in space.
(Cap Space After Move $54,741,373)
Overview:
More moves can be made. If the team truly desired, they could open up another $23M in cap space with more restructurings on the roster. I also believe they will look to work the extensions of Jevon Holland and Jaylen Waddle this off season to potentially get ahead of the market (would be nice for a change!)
Now, let’s dive into the team’s needs and how I see free agency playing out.
TEAM NEEDS:
OG, OC, DT, LB, S, CB, WR, RB
Cap Space Effective $54,741,373
QB: NONE
I feel they will be keeping Mike White and Skylar Thompson, although I am not opposed to taking a quarterback in the later rounds of the draft to develop and maybe take the job from Skylar.
RB:
Sign Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25 years old) 1 yr, 2.5M, 1.5M Guaranteed
Look, I know we need some thunder in the backfield, and Derrick Henry is a splashy name. But he won’t come cheap. McDaniel values his running backs, and Edwards-Helaire will have a chip on his shoulder. He should be more effective than Jeff Wilson was for Miami, and this will be a perfect spot for CEH to resurrect his young career.
Other names to watch: Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, Kareem Hunt
WR:
Sign Jauan Jennings (27 years old), 2 yrs, 5.5M, 2.5M Guaranteed
This one shouldn’t surprise people. Jennings is familiar with the system run. He had a good showing in the postseason and should slide into a WR4/5 role.
Other names to watch: River Cracraft, Trent Sherfield, Josh Reynolds
TE:
Sign Jonnu Smith (28 years old), 2 yrs, 11.5M, 6M Guaranteed
The Dolphins’ offense runs through Hill and Waddle in the passing game. While it’s nice to have Durham Smythe, he doesn’t make defenses fear his playmaking ability. If they can sign Jonnu Smith, he will be a welcomed addition.
Other names to watch: Hunter Henry, Noah Fant
OL:
Sign Center Aaron Brewer (27 years old), 4 years, 21M, 10M Guaranteed
While the Dolphins could wait until the summer to sign a healthier Connor Williams, they could fill this spot with Brewer. He was solid for a bad Titans OL, allowing 6 sacks on 1050 snaps. Many will want JPJ in the draft, but nothing is guaranteed about landing him.
Sign Guard Laken Tomlinson (32 years old), 2 yrs, 20.5M, 11M Guaranteed
Another player with familiarity with the system. The Dolphins were in on Tomlinson 2 years ago before he ended up signing with the Jets. I think Miami can bring him in and immediately take care of the 2 interior spots.
Re-sign Guard Robert Jones (25 years old) 2 yrs, 5M, 2M Guaranteed
Sometimes, it’s good to keep your own players. Robert Jones is a good backup lineman who played some valuable snaps late in the season. He could challenge for RG playing time.
Other Names to Watch: C Connor Williams, G Dalton Risner, G Graham Glasgow, G Isaiah Wynn
DT:
Sign Javon Kinlaw (27 years old) 2 yr, 10M, 4.5M Guaranteed
The sting of losing Wilkins will hurt. I truly believe they will be in the draft looking for his replacement. But they need to add bodies. Kinlaw is a reclamation project that Anthony Weaver could take on. Kinlaw could be a solid player, but he needs a fresh start.
Other Names to Watch: DaQuan Jones, Leki Fotu, Christian Wilkins (hope)
LB:
Sign LB Azeez Al-Shaair (27 years old) 3 yrs, 21.5M, 11M Guaranteed
He is a great off the ball LB and will immediately fill the need after Jerome Baker’s release. He will come much cheaper and provided much needed depth. He will have plenty of suitors. Miami can make a strong offer.
Sign LB Tyrel Dodson (26 years old), 3 yrs, 24M, 12M Guaranteed
Dodson was a stud in Buffalo last year, filling in for Matt Milano. He is a good coverage LB and plays well inside. He would fit nicely next to David Long Jr.
Other Names to Watch: Andrew Van Ginkel, K’Lavon Chiasson, Patrick Queen (if they go big)
DB:
Sign S Chuck Clark (29 years old) 1 yrs, 5M, 2.5M Guaranteed
Clark was traded away to the Jets last offseason. He will have some familiarity with this defense and provides good depth in the 3rd level of the defense. Depending on his health, this makes some sense here. (Chris Grier loves guys off injuries)
Sign S Darnell Savage Jr (27 years old) 3 yrs, 19M, 12M Guaranteed
If there is any indication of how this defense may play, Baltimore loved to play with three safeties on the field. With the lack of depth, this would be a great signing and more depth.
Sign CB Shaquille Griffin (29 years old), 1 yrs, 3M, 2M Guaranteed
The Dolphins need some depth at cornerback after the loss of Howard. Griffin provides that and is an upgrade over Eli Apple (if that’s saying a lot)
Other Names to Watch: Nik Needham, Darious Williams, Rock Ya-Sin, Levi Wallace
Overview:
I had the urge to OVERSPEND at every position of need. I feel like the Dolphins will make their yearly splash with a big name. But I also feel the roster needs to be rounded out with good players that will not break the bank. We will soon see how this roster is going to be re-tooled. But losing big names this off-season stings.
