The Miami Dolphins were flying coming into the final leg of the 2023 regular season but met two absolute brick walls to finish the campaign. Both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills were out to prove a point against the increasingly beaten-up Fins, walking away with key wins that nudged Miami down to second in the AFC East.

On a collision course with the would-be champions, the Dolphins ran out of steam in the Wild Card Round, losing 26-7 at Arrowhead Stadium. Still, it was a very encouraging season that saw Miami set the bar for offense on several occasions, and the offseason certainly hasn’t failed to impress.

As such, it’s strange that two reliable sources have the Miami Dolphins ranked rather far apart. On the one hand, they rank seventh in the NFL, behind the Texans, Eagles, Lions, Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs. On the other, they sit 11th in the rankings to take the crown. It’s a peculiar disparity, but the offseason moves may indicate why this is.

Doing well under cap constraints

It’s almost impossible to go unscathed in the NFL offseason, and the Dolphins certainly took a few chips to the roster. Andrew van Ginkel, Xavien Howard, Brandon Jones, Jerome Baker, and Christian Wilkins leaving wasn’t ideal but necessary, with the Dolphins getting scrunched up against the cap ceiling. In their places, an admirable job was done to improve the roster. Easily the best addition was edge rusher Shaquil Barrett for $9 million on a one-year deal.

Alongside some key draftees, Barrett will certainly bolster the rush, while Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are given the time needed to get back to 100 percent. Also coming in to pad these losses are Jordyn Brooks, Jordan Poyer, and Kendall Fuller. In what might be a pivotal move for an already fluid offense, receiving tight end Jonnu Smith looks custom-made for Mike McDaniel’s schemes, which you can read more about at ESPN.

In the draft, the Dolphins were expected to double down on enhancing the offensive line, as it was a clear weak spot in 2023. Patrick Paul was drafted as a top offensive tackle in Round 2, but the biggest wins came at outside linebacker. Chop Robinson and the crafty Round 5 pick of Mohamed Kamara could ease the pressure on Chubb, Phillips, and the 31-year-old Barrett, with more details about the picks on The Palm Beach Post.

Are the Dolphins top-ten or not quite?

Given how well the team did last season, the assumption of improvements in key areas, and the generally quite lackluster reception of how the Buffalo Bills, in particular, endured the offseason, you’d think that the Dolphins would be a consensus top-ten team in the NFL now. Instead, across the top NFL betting sites, Miami ranks around 11th.

These top bookies have to produce competitive odds to get strong scores, with more on Punters Page as to this requirement, and they have the Dolphins out at around +2200 to win Super Bowl LIX. This puts the Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Bills, and those mentioned in the intro above Miami. It would seem the path to the playoffs is a major hurdle being considered. The Bills remain the +160 favorites to win the AFC East, but the Dolphins are only a bit back at +180.

Still, it’s in stark contrast to the ESPN post-draft power rankings, for example, which pit the Dolphins seventh in the NFL with the Bills in eighth. With some extra wiggle room coming from the June cap buff, by virtue of Xavien Howard’s departure, the Dolphins could strengthen further and be considered true title contenders. Perhaps with some offensive line reinforcements, those odds will shrink to begin to align with the power rankings.

For now, though, fans would be inclined to side with the power rankings over the odds, especially as the Bills have had to retool and the New York Jets have bolstered with oft-broken additions to key areas of need.