Coming off of a rousing 22-10 upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the tide of the 2021 campaign is on the brink of turning in Miami. Despite the first half of the season going wrong in almost every way possible — dropping multiple games on last-second field goals, losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a significant stretch after week two, and dealing with a litany of young players who regressed — the rest of the schedule brings hope.
Hope is a dangerous thing for us Dolphins fans. But we’ve got nothing to lose by sitting at 3-7 in a season where this team was supposed to be in the playoff chase.
So screw it, let’s hope! Let’s go to the playoffs!
(Kidding, kidding — I don’t want to hear any real playoff talk unless Miami finds a way to get back to .500 on the year)
Before the season started, I wrote a column citing three reasons why Miami might NOT make the postseason. In the opening, I said…
“In football, injuries happen. Young players regress. Old players get old and slow. Coaches make bad decisions. Bad luck happens because at the end of the day, footballs are kind of a bizarre shape and wacky things happen.”
Sometimes it sucks to be right, huh?
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The bright side is that I was also concerned about the safety rotation on defense with Bobby McCain being jettisoned last offseason, but Flores has proven me wrong there. The tandem of Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland has looked phenomenal the last couple of weeks.
But back to the impetus behind this article — hope.
It’s so much better to watch football when there’s something on the line, something worth pulling for. Dolphins fans for two decades now have had to endure too many seasons where, frankly, there was little point in watching.
So as it stands right now, with Flores and co. sitting at 3-7, what is there to hope for if not the playoffs?
On the most basic level, there’s hope for a winning streak now that Miami is on a two-game run thanks to the Ravens game on primetime and the Texans game the week before that. The Dolphins get the Jets this week followed by the Panthers and Giants headed into the bye. After that they face the Jets again.
All told, that’s a very favorable slate for the next month regardless of the bye week. Those next four opponents currently have a combined 12-15 record.
The caveat, of course, is that each of those teams is eyeing Miami’s 3-7 record and chalking up those contests as a victory in their favor. When you struggle as mightily as the Dolphins did to start the season, it works both ways.
The other reason for hope — the much larger one, in my eyes — is because of the clarity Miami stands to gain from these final seven games. With any luck, the franchise will be able to make a valid assessment of Tua Tagovailoa and his future in Miami. They’ll know if Brian Flores is worth keeping around for the fourth year of his contract and if Chris Grier deserves another year as General Manager. And with the team still relying on so much young talent, they’ll know who can be counted on beyond 2021 when the playoffs will hopefully be in the picture again.
But as with any hope for Dolphins fans, there are roadblocks. Serious ones. They’re what I mentioned above — the offensive line and the availability (or lack thereof) of players in the receiving corps.
Let’s start with the wide receivers’ room because it takes a very simple calculus to see the problem here.
Coming into 2021, Miami’s projected top three receivers were supposed to be DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and Will Fuller. And how many games have those three players been on the field together?
Three. Out of ten.
And how many of those weeks were they catching passes from starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa?
Zero, because those three games occurred while Tua was on IR with fractured ribs. Not a great look for the offense.
Jaylen Waddle has been a stud this season both in terms of production and availability, but after him, things have been disappointing. Parker has only played five games and is now on IR because of his hamstring. Fuller has played only two games and is also on IR because of a finger injury. Add to this the fact that Preston Williams has also been nicked up and you’re left with a razor-thin group of playmakers on the outside.
As a result, Miami has the most drops in the NFL by a decent margin and also boasts the highest drop rate of any team.
Simply put, Tua hasn’t had much to work with this season…
This brings us next to the offensive line. And oh boy, is it bad.
Miami’s offense currently allows the 2nd most pressures in the league, the 3rd most hits, and the 7th most sacks. In case you’re keeping score at home, these are not categories you want to be leading the league in.
Additionally, the top three pressure-allowers in the NFL are ALL on the Dolphins. That would be Liam Eichenberg (a rookie, which is disheartening), Jesse Davis, and 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson, each with at least 39 pressures. For comparison, 2020 rookie Tristan Wirfs allowed only 24 pressures all season last year for the Bucs.
And not to pile on, but ESPN has the Dolphins down as the worst team in the NFL in terms of pass block win rate. Miami sits at a measly 45% while the Browns lead the league at 70%. The good news is that the Dolphins are actually 7th in run block win rate, but the team doesn’t run enough or have talented enough backs to capitalize on this.
Other good news is that Tua gets the ball out 3rd fastest in the league, which takes stress off of his line whenever he’s in the game. Now that Jacoby Brissett hopefully won’t have to play another snap this season, the line’s metrics may improve some with Tua back under center.
So enough doom and gloom — those are Miami’s most daunting roadblocks for the rest of this 2021 season.
Coming off of the home victory against the Ravens, there’s little doubt that Miami is in a position to resuscitate its 2021 season. Tua stands to get a fair audition for the remaining seven games if the team continues its run, the receivers should get healthy at some point, and the line… Well, we won’t hold our breath on the offensive line. Nothing is guaranteed with the 2021 Miami Dolphins, but measured optimism persists for now.
With the Jets up next, nothing would feel better to continue the win streak than trouncing a division rival. And for Dolphins fans specifically, nothing would feel better than giving us all legitimate reason to hope after the season’s 1-7 start.
Seven games. Lucky 7 for Tua. If he cannot beat the likes of Jets X 2, Giants, and Cam divas Panthers, then he is not the QB of the future. He needs to ball out vs these teams and bring hope back by getting to .500 before any further talk about ANYTHING else. It is now “Tua Time”, black and white, wrong or right.