After the circus last week that was the NFL schedule release, we finally know when and where the Dolphins will be playing their 2023 opponents. To be fair, the opponents and relative strength of the schedule were already known for a while, but now we have actual dates and locations for these matchups. While the Dolphins are currently listed with the second hardest strength of schedule, only behind the NFC Champion Eagles, Miami still managed to catch a few lucky breaks on the schedule. Getting to avoid cold weather games against the likes of Buffalo and New England is always nice, and even catching the Kansas City game in Germany, as opposed to having to travel out to Arrowhead, are all pretty significant in terms of evaluating and predicting outcomes for those contests. With all that said, let’s dive in and take a closer look at the games and try to predict the Dolphins’ record.
Week 1: @ Chargers – Sep. 10
The LA Chargers may have beaten the Dolphins in primetime a year ago, but I don’t think that’ll be the case this year. The Chargers have historically been a very streaky team; meanwhile, Miami should be extra motivated to win this game to avenge last year’s loss. I know the Chargers are perceived nationally as this great team, but I don’t fear them as others in the media do. I view that team as wildly inconsistent, and that playoff loss they suffered just a few months ago is a microcosm of what’s wrong with the Chargers. They’re good enough to beat anyone and bad enough to blow it on any Sunday. I don’t think Miami will roll in and blow them out, but they’ll do enough to grab the win on the road and start the season right.
Result: Win
Week 2: @ Patriots (SNF) – Sep. 17
Originally when this matchup leaked online ahead of the scheduled release, it was positioned as the “Brady returns to New England” game, as it was reported that the Patriots would honor Brady before the game, as it turns out that return is actually slated for the week before when the Pats host the Eagles in week 1. So while Miami fans won’t be seeing the team stick it to Brady one last time in New England, it does leave the Dolphins with a fairly winnable game on primetime at Foxboro in September (beats having to go up there in January).
Result: Win
Week 3: vs. Broncos – Sep. 24
In a vacuum, a team that has Russel Wilson and Sean Payton should be good. However, given what we saw from the Broncos a year ago, I’m not predicting anything other than a win here, especially at home in Miami.
Result: Win
Week 4: @ Bills – Oct. 1
Getting Buffalo on the road this early in the season is probably the best-case scenario for the Dolphins. Miami avoids the snow/cold weather game and gets the Bills early enough that a slow start for the Bills could mean a Miami win. I’m extremely tempted to give this game to Miami given that information but I ultimately think the Bills will be hungry to silence some critics after their disappointing playoffs last year and will start the season firing on all cylinders. Plus, given how hard Miami played Buffalo in all three games they played last year, you have to imagine Buffalo is expecting Miami’s best and will plan accordingly.
Result: Loss… but it’s winnable.
If Not Dalvin Cook Some Other Running Backs Who Could Help Miami
Week 5: vs. Giants – Oct. 8
I know the Giants technically won a playoff game last year, but at home in Miami, this game shouldn’t even be close.
Result: Win
Week 6: vs. Panthers – Oct. 15
We’re not 100% sure who will be starting at quarterback for Carolina, but regardless of who gets the nod, this is a very winnable contest. I respect what the Panthers are building, but I think they’re still really early in their rebuild and will likely have their fair share of struggles this season. At home, Miami wins this one.
Result: Win
Week 7: @ Eagles (SNF) – Oct. 22
This is probably the hardest game on the schedule for Miami this year. Heading into Philly on a Sunday night in October was a rough draw. I think the Eagles will likely be dominant on offense and defense again this season which, combined with a strong home-field advantage, will probably mean a loss for the Fins.
Result: Loss
Week 8: vs. Patriots – Oct. 29
The Dolphins going against the Patriots at home in Miami is a win. New England is 2-8 in their last 10 games in Miami, and I expect more of the same.
Result: Win
Week 9: vs. Chiefs (Germany Game) – Nov. 5
The Tyreek Hill revenge game is finally here, and it takes place in Germany. Well, the return to Arrowhead will have to wait a little while longer for Tyreek; that being said, I think it’s a lucky draw to get the Chiefs at a neutral site (the Chiefs are the designated home team). They are the reigning Champs, so I’ll give them proper respect and project this game as a loss; however, I think Miami will be in a position to put the league on notice with a big win here and having this game in Germany rather than Arrowhead ups their chances of being able to do so.
Result: Loss… but there is an opportunity here.
—Week 10: BYE – Nov. 12—
Week 11: Vs. Raiders – Nov. 19
If we’re just going based on what we saw last year, this game should be a win for Miami. I know the Raiders added Jimmy Garoppolo over the off-season, but I see that as a downgrade for them from Derek Carr, honestly. I’m just not very high on the Raiders this season; Miami should take care of this one at home.
Result: Win
Week 12: @ Jets – Nov. 24
I’m expecting the Jets to start the season hot, so getting the first matchup with them in week 12 is preferable. The game taking place on a Friday means both teams would be coming off short weeks. I think Miami will benefit greatly from this matchup taking place late in the season. McDaniel and company will have plenty of time to get film on that new-look Jets offense and plan accordingly. I think this matchup comes down to the wire, but ultimately Miami edges out the Jets in New York.
Result: Win
Week 13: @ Commanders – Dec. 3
Barring something completely unforeseen, I expect the Dolphins to beat the tanking Commanders in week 13.
Result: Win
Week 14: vs. Titans (MNF) – Dec. 11
The wheels appear to be coming off for the Titans, a team that’s been very competitive over the last few seasons and is now in somewhat of a state of change. I’m actually expecting 2nd round-draft pick rookie quarterback Will Levis to be the starter for the Titans by week 14 but even if he’s not, I just simply don’t see this Tennesse Titans team being all that competitive in 2023.
Result: Win
Week 15: vs. Jets – Dec. 17
A Lot of my notes from week 12 apply here. I expect the Jets’ end of the season to be rough, and I expect the Miami Dolphins to take care of business at home against them in week 15.
Result: Win
Week 16: vs. Cowboys – Dec. 24
Like the Chargers, the Cowboys are another streaky team that I’m not very high on for the 2023 season. Miami takes care of business at home.
Result: Win
Week 17: @ Ravens – Jan. 31
Miami has seen surprising success against the Ravens the past two seasons; perhaps that trend can continue, but I expect that new-look Ravens offense to be very potent. It’s difficult to envision what these teams might look like by this point in the season, given that both teams rely on “injury-prone” players, but it’d be reckless of me to try and project injuries here, given we’re still in the off-season. At the moment, I’m inclined to project this as a loss because I expect the Ravens to be very competitive this upcoming season, but it should still be a winnable matchup for Miami.
Result: Loss
Week 18: vs. Bills – Jan. 6 or 7
The Dolphins avoid the Buffalo cold, and the Bills avoid the Miami heat, or at least they’ll avoid the peak hot season down here (Miami is kind of always hot). If Miami is truly ready to contend this year, I think winning this one at home is crucial. Miami played Buffalo hard in all three matchups last season, and I expect them to grab a win against them here.
Result: Win
Final Record Prediction: 13-4
13-4 would be amazing! Schedule seems harder than that tho, unless our defense gets their game together early. 11-6 seems more attainable. We have been robbed of early season hot games, and the two teams we get while it is uncomfortable are (only) the Broncos and Giants. Lately, I think Rodgers plays better as the seasons progress, so a late meeting is not great–but as you said, there will film on the Jets to review by then.