In the previous two articles predicting the Miami Dolphins’ 2023 record, the team ended Week 12 with a loss to the New York Jets to go 7-4.
Can the team get enough wins to make the playoffs? Let’s find out at the conclusion of the three-part series.
Week 13: @ Washington Commanders
The 2023 season hinges on the health of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. It remains a massive question mark.
If he is to suffer a similar fate in the 2o23 season, then this could be the game.
No team needs a stadium move or revamp more than the Commanders. With the history of quarterbacks having career-ruining injuries on this field, such as Robert Griffin III, Alex Smith, and Joe Thiesmann, Dolphins fans should be worried about this one.
Tua leaving FedEx Field in one piece will be a victory in itself. Should Tua play the game in full, this should be comfortable for Miami fans.
Whether this is Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett under center, this should be no scare for Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, and Christian Wilkins.
Prediction: Miami wins 20-10 (8-4)
Week 14: vs Tennessee Titans
If this was the Titans of a few years ago, there would be less confidence in this game. However, a lot has changed, and they have become a very one-dimensional offense.
The Titans and former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill used to benefit massively from RPO schemes when they had A.J. Brown in their receiver room, with defenses unstuck as to whether the play would result in a Derrick Henry run or pass to Brown.
No one knows if Henry will be in a Titans jersey come Week 14. Whether it is Tannehill, Will Levis, or Malik Willis under center in 2023, this should once again be no problem for the Dolphins’ secondary, which includes Ramsey, Xavien Howard, and Jevon Holland.
If Henry is playing in this game, a Dolphins defense that has struggled in recent years against the run may have a tough ordeal.
However, I believe Henry will not be a Titan now.
Prediction: Miami wins 21-13 (9-4)
Week 15: vs New York Jets
Much of the Jets’ talk was discussed in the previous part of the 2023 season predictions, but we will know by Week 15 who the Jets really are.
This is a team that has improved in their one area of need with one of the best to ever do it.
In the NFL’s first Black Friday game, this will be won by the team from New Jersey.
Prediction: Jets win 31-18 (9-5)
Week 16: vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys may have questionable coaching, but the Cowboys in the regular season are a different animal to that of the playoff Cowboys.
This could be the game that secures Dallas a playoff spot, and they will be a team hungry to get the win on Christmas Eve. They are also a team used to the heat in December.
Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb could feast on any potential off day for Miami’s defense, as could the Dolphins’ defensive line if Dak is struggling.
This will be a tight game, arguably the closest scoreline of the season for Miami.
Prediction: Dallas wins 27-24 in overtime (9-6)
Week 17: @ Baltimore Ravens
Miami has won twice in as many years against the Ravens, both times in shock fashion.
This Miami team has had the upper hand in recent years, from winning despite a 2-8 record in 2021 to a comeback for the ages in 2022. The law of averages means that you would think Baltimore will get the win in 2023. However, this is a Dolphins team that has improved in many areas as opposed to a Ravens team that has not gotten worse or better.
Lamar has struggled in large parts of this game in recent times. His last game where has truly excelled against Miami was Week One in his MVP-winning 2019 campaign.
The wide receiver core is not exactly one to terrify Miami’s defense, even if they and Baltimore had a bottom-seven defense for passing yards allowed.
This game was high-scoring last season, and with a less-than-convincing Ravens defense, new Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio should win this duel. Expect Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill to give Ravens players nightmares in matchups.
Prediction: Miami wins 31-17 (10-6)
Week 18 vs. Buffalo Bills
This one is likely to be very important. Whether it be a fight for the division, to make the playoffs, or for the fifth seed, this game should have massive implications.
With home advantage, expect Miami to have the edge on a nervous day for everyone involved.
Prediction: Miami wins 21-17 (11-6)
Overall record: 11-6
Playoff Prediction
In most years and most divisions, this would be enough to secure the Dolphins their first AFC East title since the 2008 season.
However, this is not the same AFC East.
A division that was once so one-sided, this is now the best in the entire league. There is a legitimate case for at least three of the four teams winning the division.
With an 11-6 record in a division that could cannibalize itself, this could be enough to win the division. However, Dolphins fans should be going into the season with more realistic expectations of a Wildcard Round spot as the potential fifth seed.
Of course, no game is easy, but you would rather face the winners of the AFC South than any other division in the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars are easily the favorites for that division. The Dolphins would give them a good run for their money.
A win here should not be overlooked. Against the team that humiliated Dan Marino in his final career game, this is the perfect setting on the road for the Dolphins to end their long playoff win drought.
Should all this come true, then it is likely that the Dolphins will play either the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, or Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round on the road. Miami should be able to handle themselves, but this would be a tough task to make it one step further. This is especially so against the Chiefs and Bengals. If the team ended up facing the Bills or Jets, there would be more chance of a win in this matchup.
Fans could really start to dream but it is hard to see Miami players suiting up for a Conference Championship game. Mike McDaniel, prove me wrong.
Playoff prediction: Divisional Round loss
