As we now sit in early July, it is that time of year that I feel is the best to place some “season-long” NFL Future Bets for the upcoming 2023 season. These are the bets I enjoy the most for a football season (college and pro) because it gives you a rooting interest for the upcoming season with another team that isn’t your “favorite” team. They are also the fun bets you place now in July or August, and then come January, you cash out and have some extra money in your pocket at the start of the new year!

With every team’s roster pretty much set at this time, and with all teams healthy heading into training camp, I like to place my bets now in July as I feel it is the dead period of the NFL. You bet with a clear head and don’t have training camp reports and rumors starting to cloud your judgment or have you second-guessing yourself.

There are three rules I follow when placing these bets.

Rule #1: Shop around for the best odds. Each platform will give you different odds, so maximize your money. One may be at +100, another at +110, so bet the one at +110. For the sake of this article, I will compare odds only between two platforms: Draft Kings and Caesars.

Rule #2: This is the most important rule. This is Sports Gambling; take your emotion out of it and place it to the side. This is about making money at the end of the day, not your rooting interest as a “fan.”

Rule #3: Budget your money. All bets aren’t created equal. Some bets you feel super confident about, see less risk, and think are a “sure thing” bet more on those teams/games. Then there are bets you like but understand the inherent risk involved with the bet and could see how it could go sideways on you. You still bet it, but bet a little less. The goal here is to walk away with the most money possible.

I use a little ranking system that I created that may help; here is how I rank games or, in the case of this article, teams when placing season-long Over/Under bets.

FIVE STAR Bets = Bet the mortgage, the kid’s college fund, and any valuables you have in your house on this game. (kidding, of course, but you get my point)

FOUR STAR Bets = Bet a week’s paycheck on it; if you lose, you aren’t homeless, but if you win, you buy the first two rounds of drinks at Happy Hour the next time you’re out with co-workers.

THREE STAR Bets = I like the bet, but understand this may not totally work out. If you’re sitting around the house board with some discretionary money to play around with, what the heck, let’s try to spice up an afternoon. Let’s throw a few bucks down and see what happens.

So, without any further ado, here are my 2023 NFL Over/Under Bets for 2023.


Atlanta Falcons UNDER 8.5 Wins (Draft Kings +100, Caesars +110)

There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that a team with Desmond Ridder as their starting quarterback is winning nine games over the course of a season, and I don’t care how bad the division is. This team starts Drake London, Mack Hollins, and Scotty Miller at WR. Kyle Pitts has been OK since entering the league, but not the game-changing tight end everyone thought he would be. The defense is ordinary at best, but it really comes back to the offense. This is an offensive league where you need to score points and create big plays. Atlanta is built like a team from the 1980s. A head coach who likes to run the ball, a rookie running back in Bijan Robinson, who I am sure will be tremendous, but running backs and a solid running game don’t win games week in and week out in the NFL in this era. The passing game is lackluster, to say the least and if you can’t pass the ball, you can’t win. Atlanta was 7-10 in 2022, and they did nothing to drastically improve the roster to give them 2 more wins this season. This is a FIVE-STAR play, and bet Atlanta UNDER 8.5 wins and bet a lot on it.


Arizona Cardinals UNDER 4.5 Wins (Draft Kings -120; Caesars -105)

Not a lot of value here with this one, but a win is a win, and this one is as sure of a win as there is. Name 3 players on the Arizona Cardinals not named Kyler Murray without Googling it. Yeah, good luck. This is a team that blew it up and is all in on either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 NFL draft. The management has built a roster that can’t win even on their best day. Then you look at their schedule; they will get swept by San Fran and Seattle. Maybe (maybe) they split with the Rams. But after that, who do they beat? Philly, Dallas, NYG, Baltimore, Cleveland, Pitt, or Cincy? NOPE! Detroit or Chicago…probably not. Houston, Washington, and Atlanta are somewhat winnable, but they won’t win them all. This team getting to 5 wins is impossible. Whether it’s -120 or -105 the value isn’t great, but like I said, a win is a win, and this one is a mortal lock. Arizona will have the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.



Miami Dolphins OVER 9.5 Wins (Draft Kings +100; Caesars -110)

Anyone who knows me knows I am not a homer when it comes to analysis and talking about the Dolphins. That I have the ability to take off the fandom glasses and put them to the side, and when it comes to gambling, I always gamble with my head, not my heart. With that said, I love Miami Over 9.5 wins this year for many reasons. For one, in the past three seasons, Miami has been at 10, 9, and 9 wins, so to think they won’t be in that neighborhood again would be foolish. Second, Miami won nine last season with a depleted secondary and poor playcalling on defense. Last but not least, that schedule doesn’t scare me like it scares others who just see the opponents winning % from last season. Looking at that schedule, I see Las Vegas, Carolina, Washington, and Tennessee as four games that I think Mike White could play quarterback, and Miami would still win. Then you factor in New England (twice) and  NY Giants as three games where I think Miami’s defense matches up very favorably with the opposing offense and quarterback. Meaning I have to just get to 3 more wins with the rest of the schedule. Assume they split with the Jets; now I just need two more. And I think that is a slam dunk. The thing that scares me of course, is Tua, who is always injured and can’t be relied on to play a full season. But I’m gonna roll the dice here and think his luck turns around, and he gives Miami at least 13 or more starts, and the Dolphins find their way to 10 wins in the regular season. I’m not going to predict post-season success or division titles or anything like that, but I think this is a 10-win team, at least in 2023.

NY Jets UNDER 9.5 Wins (Draft Kings +110, Caesars +115)

Again this isn’t me being a homer and “hoping” the Jets stink; I don’t see them as a 10-win team, even with Aaron Rodgers. To me, their 2022 season was a lot of smoke and mirrors. They caught every break known to mankind in 2022; the comeback win at Cleveland was the most improbable thing in NFL history, total luck. Teddy Bridgewater gets knocked out of the game on the first play, and 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson is forced into action handing the Jets a win. They beat Pittsburgh, who made a quarterback change, and they got rookie Kenny Pickett midway through the game and took advantage of a rookie playing in his first game. When they played Denver, they went up against another backup in Brett Rypien. I could go on and on, but a team won’t catch every possible break like that two years in a row. Then you look at the Jets’ schedule; its first half is killer. Buffalo, Dallas, NE, Kansas City, Denver, Philly, Giants, Chargers, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Miami. I see a lot of playoff teams in there. While I don’t think the Jets will be awful this season, I don’t see them getting to 10 wins. Rodgers helps, but he has a young team around him. And some of those young players have been chirping all offseason. They are talking a lot for a team that lost its final six games last year. And seven out of their last 8. I think the Jets are a team on the rise; they have a lot of up-and-coming young players, so don’t read this as a Dolphins fan just bashing the Jets. But from a gambler’s perspective, I don’t see them getting to 10 wins in 2023.



Philadelphia Eagles OVER 11.5 Wins (Draft Kings -110, Caesars +110)

I like the Eagles a lot in 2023, a real lot. I think they have the best roster in the NFL on paper, and if not for a slick field in the Super Bowl, which slowed down their pass rush, they may have beaten Kansas City. They now add D’Andra Swift to the running game, the offensive line is elite, and Jalen Hurts may be a Top 5  or so quarterback in the NFL based on what we saw from him last season. We know the defense is elite, and nothing that happened in the offseason changed that. I have a small concern that they are replacing both coordinators this year, but talent trumps coaching. I think they are the class of the NFC East by miles, and they won’t be tested in the division at all. And the schedule overall is soft; aside from Washington (twice), they get Arizona, Tampa Bay, and LA Rams, who all look to be god-awful this year. Then factor in teams like Miami and the Jets, who have poor offensive lines and will be unable to block that Philly pass rush. They should have ho-hum wins vs. New England and Minnesota. But aside from Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Francisco, I don’t see too many tests on the Philly schedule. Getting to 12-5 should be easy; this may be a 13- or 14-win team. The only reason this isn’t a FOUR STAR PLAY is that getting to 12 is still hard, and if Philly has everything locked up early, what is their motivation late in the season in games? But I like Philly a lot.


Seattle Seahawks OVER 9 Wins (Drat Kings -175 (8.5 wins); Caesars +110)

Seattle was a team that surprised a lot of people in 2022, but the resurgence of Geno Smith at quarterback almost got Seattle into the playoffs. What is working in their favor this year is that they are in a god-awful division with two really bad teams. Arizona and the LA Rams are gonna be really bad, and with this bet (depending on which platform you are using), you only have to get to 9 or 10 wins. With two vs Arizona and LA, as well as Washington, Tennessee, and Carolina on their schedule, I think getting to 10 wins isn’t impossible.


Flyers to Bet (but Bet No More than $25 or so on these)

Buffalo OVER 10.5 (Draft Kings -150; Caesars -130) – Bills first 11 weeks are really soft; getting to 11 wins on the year shouldn’t be difficult

Tampa Bay UNDER 6.5 (Draft Kings -140; Caesars -140 ) – The division is bad, and the Bucs WR group is decent. I don’t trust Mayfield, but in a bad division, I am afraid of putting big money on TB under. But a few bucks with a flyer, sure, why not.

Las Vegas UNDER 7.5 (Draft Kings -190; Caesars -190 ) – Some guys just aren’t a head coach. Josh McDaniels falls into that category. That and the fact now JimmyG is his quarterback and the Raiders are in a difficult division, I don’t think they come anywhere near 8 wins. The value here sucks, but a win is a win.