At times a handful of Miami Dolphins players carried the fantasy team’s weekly scoring, far exceeding projections that many expected. Going from Mahomes to Tua, if memory serves correctly, was going to affect Tyreek Hills usage and overall numbers greatly. 119 catches and 1710 yards later, he bested his career high by almost 300 yards. Jaylen Waddle, who in his first year set the rookie catch record with 104, albeit only averaging just under 10 yards a catch. In year two, that went to leading the NFL in yards per catch at 18.1 and, like his wide receiver counterpart, looked unstoppable at times with a touchdown possibility every time he got his hands on the ball. When healthy, Tua put up some great numbers for his first year under a new offense. 3,500 plus yards, 25 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions in just over 12 games. If Tua stays on his feet all season and with the weapons he has, as well as being in a Mike McDaniel offense for year 2, fireworks may ensue.
Quarterback
Tua is the obvious choice here. Coming into 2023, bigger, stronger, thicker, as well as having a better understanding of the playbook, has many Dolphin fans excited for the season. 4,500 yards, 30 touchdowns, and a low number of interceptions should be achieved with ease. Starting off the season with games against the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills within the first four weeks will certainly give a glimpse of how far Tua has come. Expect some ups and downs, as with most quarterbacks. Still, as he has shown so far this offseason and in training camp, the impeccable ball placement, knowledge of the playbook, and overall demeanor are at a higher level than in previous years. Backing up Tua, at this moment, is not defined. Mike White has shown some flashes with pushing the ball downfield. Skylar Thompson proved his toughness in tough conditions last year but left many missed opportunities on the field. Neither backup would be a fantasy recommendation, currently.
Wide Receivers
Now here is where the strength of the Dolphins shows up. Tyreek is a matchup nightmare for any defensive coordinator/opposing defensive back. He simply cannot be guarded at times, and when he is on, even triple teams may fail. What really showed last year were his hands; outside of just burning down the field every play, he made catch after catch in traffic. Hill should be able to reach at least 1,500 yards and ten touchdowns (but all fantasy managers will happily accept his claim of getting to 2,000 yards). Number two on the list is the penguin himself, Jaylen Waddle. He burst on the scene last year, leading the league in yards per reception. Now he comes into camp with noticeably more muscle mass, looking almost faster/quick twitch than last year. He is more of a 1A and not a #2 wide receiver anymore. He should be able to surpass 1,400 yards with a healthy offense. Waddle, as Tyreek can, has the ability to take any play to the house at any time. Things get a bit murky after those two, with who Miami will be rolling out as the #3 receiver, and for that matter, #4 as well. Newcomer Braxton Berrios has flashed many times in camp, as well as Robbie Chosen. Berrios seems the safer choice at the moment. But Chosen has shown in his career that he can quickly take the top off a defense. If the stars align, they could be looking at close to 60-70 receptions and around 800 yards each, with potentially more touchdowns for Chosen. Cedrick Wilson aligns more with a possession receiver at the moment, too, and his stats would be less than Berrios/Chosen. River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma are not viable fantasy recommendations at this time.
Running Backs
2022 was a decent run for the Miami running backs. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson both had a solid run last year. As we all witnessed during that Buffalo game, there are a handful of games towards the end of the year where Mostert just goes off and cannot be stopped. Wilson is a solid #2 who will flash from time to time. Not a bad 1,2 punch, but not a group that screams fantasy production week in and week out. Enter wildcard rookie De’Von Achane, one the fastest players to come out of last year’s draft. Highly productive in college, can return kicks, and honestly does everything you can ask to do, just faster! Between him and Mostert, the Dolphins have 2 of the top 10 fastest NFL running backs. If they stay healthy, the Mostert/Wilson combo should both be around 800 yards and six touchdowns. We’ll have to see how Achane will be used, but from what we’ve seen in camp, the kid has some hands and can run all the routes. Safe expectations should be around 500 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving, with a potential uptick in both depending on use.
Tight Ends
As fantasy projections go, this grouping has the potential to be the Achilles heel of the potent Miami offense. Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert, Tanner Conner, and wide receiver converted tight end rookie Elijah Higgins all have some potential but look to be more in-line blockers and some check-down use. This group may be the hardest to predict, and more time in the offseason will show us a better feel for how they will be used. There is potential there, but on paper, nothing more than around 40 catches with 3,4 hundred yards with a red zone touchdown or two, collectively.
Kicker
Jason Sanders went from a reliable fantasy kicker in 2020, where he made 92.3% of his kicks, to 74.2%, then 81.3% last season. With three missed extra points and making 26 field goals on the year, Sanders is not in the upper tier of NFL kickers and is not currently recommended for anything more than a weekly flyer. His projection would be 0% field goal % and around 25-28 field goals.
Defense/Special Teams
From a fantasy perspective, Miami’s defense was hit or miss last year, with more misses. They ranked 28th in fantasy stats. Sacks were at a decent level of 48; interceptions were noticeably low at only 8 for the entire season. Xavien Howard had two more than that, himself in 2020. Enter Vic Fangio and a handful of impact players. Jalen Ramsey, the headliner, is out for the first half of the season or so. David Long needs to stay on the field, the return of Brandon Jones, to name a few things that need to go right. This current group is a formidable bunch that should we exceed last year’s rankings. They are just around the 10th spot, which may move up as the year progresses and the defense gels. Howard is back being healthy, Jaelon Phillips looks like he is about to burst onto the scene, Christian Wilkins is an absolute monster in the middle, and throw in players such as Bradley Chubb, Jevon Holland, AVG, they have quite the foundation to function as a high-level defensive unit. The sack numbers should be around 50; interceptions should go up to 14, and at least 1 or 2 fumble returns for a touchdown. This group has the potential to be a top 5 unit if all welds right together and they stay healthy.
Special teams should get a boost from last year. Simply having Braxton Berrios returning kicks is a plus. Days of worrying about having Tyreek (fortunately not often) or Mostert returning kicks and not being able to field their primary position should be over. Achane also has return ability, and with his speed, he could bring almost any kickback to the house at any given moment. Overall, I have the Dolphin’s defense/special teams ranked at about 8th overall to start the season.
