The NFL continues to prove week after week, year-after-year, it’s as unpredictable as the weather. The cliché, any given Sunday, could not have been any more appropriate than last week. The Texans beat the Jags on the road? The Colts beat the Ravens on the road? The Cards beat the heavily favored Cowboys? These are the challenges us prognosticators face as we attempt to pick/bet the weekly games. Yet, some had success last week. I’m just happy to escape the week at 8-8, which puts us 28-20 (58.3%) for the year in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge and salvaging a 2-3 week in the big money pick five challenge for a 9-6 yearly total. We moved down to 31st from 17th in the Slater standings and are tied 45th in the pick-five challenge but are still in contention four games back. This week’s challenge will be to determine which results from a week ago will be trending and which will be simply one-offs. After major upsets, I usually head the other way the following week. This week’s breakdown: only four dogs and ten home teams. Not the balance I like:
LIONS -1.5 @ Packers. We had the Pack last week, who won but failed to cover by a ½ point. Somehow, they are undefeated. I think they’re due for a loss. I think the Lions are the contenders and win outright.
JAGS -3.5 vs. Falcons in London. The Jags are London’s adopted home team. I think they bounce back from a dreadful home loss to the Texans. The Falcons need to find a solution for their QB. They thought Mariota was the answer last year and think Ridder is the answer this year. I’m backing Trevor Lawrence.
BENGALS -2.5 @ Titans. I would normally take the Titans in this scenario where one team looked good and the other bad last week; however, I think the Bengals are on the rise, and the Titans are truly headed South. Ryan Tannehill’s days as a starter are numbered.
EAGLES -8.5 vs. Commanders. Same scenario as above. One team looked good, the other bad. Yet, I think the Eagles have their act together and get back to blowing teams out at home.
SAINTS -3.5 vs. Bucs. I think the Baker Mayfield experiment is over. Plus, I see revenge on Jameis Winston’s mind against his old team. One other big factor? Alvin Kamara returns from suspension for the Saints’ struggling offense.
RAMS +1.5 @ Colts. Finally, an underdog! The Rams laid an egg last week, and I think they bounce back. The Colts starting QB is unknown at this time, so I’m backing the Rams.
STEELERS -3.5 @ Texans. I’m counting on the Texans to come back to Earth after last week’s huge upset at Jacksonville. I’m still a Kenny Pickett believer. Can the Steelers put back-to-back weeks? I think so.
BROWNS -2.5 vs. Ravens. I don’t think Vegas has caught up with the Browns yet. With Jim Schwartz’s defense and Deshawn Watson’s offense improving, the Browns are the real deal.
BRONCOS -3.5 @ Bears. Dog game of the week. Normally, with two garbage teams, I’ll always take the points. These two teams managed to lose by a combined 88 points last week! That might be an NFL record. For me, it boils down to coach and QB. I’m not proud or happy about this pick but I have to make one. Sean Payton/Russell Wilson get the better of Matt Eberfus/Justin Fields.
PANTHERS +3.5 vs. Vikings. Bias and emotion usually kill you in picking these games. I just can’t back Kirk Cousins or Brian Flores. Give me the Panthers in the upset.
CHARGERS -5.5 vs. Raiders. See above. I don’t believe in Josh McDaniels or Jimmy G. I really think 5.5 points is too many for a divisional game so this will likely be another emotional loss.
COWBOYS -6.5 vs. Pats. Will Dallas bounce back after mailing it in at Arizona last week? If they don’t, I think coach Mike McCarthy should have his bags packed just in case.
CARDS +14.5 @ 49ers. Man, that’s a ton of points for a divisional game. I don’t like picking the Cards after their huge upset last week, but I’ going with the percentages which back the double-digit underdog in a divisional game.
JETS +9.5 vs. Chiefs. This is the makes no-sense pick of the week. I know. It’s totally illogical. Stay clear.
SEAHAWKS +1.5 @ Giants. The Giants have too many injuries. I wish I had more to add here, but I don’t.
BILLS -2.5 vs. Dolphins. I put this game last because if I put it upfront, you probably wouldn’t read the rest of the column. This is a situational/scenario pick, folks. One team is flying high, getting national praise and attention, and hype. 70 points. Super Bowl. Yada yada yada. I think the Bills are soaking all of this in and are waiting to ambush their undefeated rivals at home. Hope I’m wrong, but I’m 3-0 in Fins games this year. Bills 31 Fins 28.
