The Miami Dolphins are off to a hot start at 3-0, and confidence is high, as it should be. However, the season’s biggest test comes Sunday at Buffalo when the Dolphins play the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins have the better record, but the Bills are coming off two dominant wins and have won the AFC East the last three years. For all of the talk by the experts that the Dolphins are one of the best of the best teams in the NFL, I’m sorry, but this team was 3-0 last year, and they got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. The Bills have been here and also have had our number over the years. In fact, since Sean McDermott has been their coach, the Dolphins haven’t beaten the Bills in Buffalo. For all of the talk, the Dolphins, being the best team and the favorite in the AFC East, stop. The Dolphins have beaten the Bills only twice in the last six years. People tend to forget. Â
The Dolphins have closed the gap on the Bills’ talent; there’s no question about that. Last year, all the games against the Bills were decided by 3 points or less, which is something that couldn’t be said of the previous five seasons. The Dolphins are confident coming into this game, as they should, but let’s not get overconfident. Josh Allen has had our number over the years. He’s the player that most concern me on Sunday. He has a big-time arm but also is elusive with his legs and scrambling ability. The Dolphins’ defense has been played well the first few weeks of the season, but they are still going through the motions under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio is also getting to know his players and what they do well and not. I think the Dolphins defense will improve as the season goes on, but they are still going through the motions.Â
On Sunday against the Denver Broncos, the halftime score was misleading in some ways. The Broncos went up and down the field. They had two touchdowns taken away by a penalty to settle for field goals. The Broncos also had an incomplete pass that could have been challenged on the opening drive, which could have given them the ball in the Dolphins’ territory and possibly a chance for a score. The Broncos shot themselves in the foot with penalties, especially after the Dolphins failed to convert a 4th down at their own 34-yard line. The Dolphins aren’t going to get away with that against the Bills. They still have Stefon Diggs at wide receiver, and I must admit watching Xavien Howard the first three games, I’m wondering if he has started to lose a step because each game he’s getting beat for a touchdown or has a penalty. This is the game the Dolphins must match up with the Bills offense that can score points, and they can’t get into a shoot-out, like the opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. They might not be as fortunate this time around.Â
The Dolphins offense has been fun to watch. The offensive line has played well and is really coming into its own in coach Mike McDaniel’s zone-blocking scheme. It was nice to see the linemen get downfield blocking and opening holes in the running last Sunday to the tone of 346 yards. The commitment to the run is exactly what the Dolphins needed last year to complement their passing game. It also helps that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gets rid of the ball quickly and has Tyreek Hill.Â
The Bills defense will be a test. They are coming off a 9-sack performance against the Washington Commanders to go with forcing five turnovers. I know the Commanders aren’t that good, but the Bills defense has been one of the best since McDermott has been with the Bills. If there is one thing the Dolphins have to give the Bills problems, it’s their speed on offense as the Bills aren’t a fast defense, but they come up with schemes. They always have stunts on the defensive line that give the Dolphins offensive line issues and cause other problems, such as protecting the quarterback and getting hits, like the one that knocked Tagovailoa out of the game two years ago. The Dolphins offensive line will face their toughest test of the season. If they can hold up, it could open things up. Â
The Dolphins’ offense is no question one of the most if not the most, explosive offenses in the game, but they aren’t going to score as they did against the Broncos every week, and certainly not Sunday. The New England Patriots devised a plan to contain the big plays and forced the Dolphins to be patient and try to sustain drives. The Dolphins passed that test with their running game and yards after catch from players not named Tyreek Hill. It helps them develop and commit to the running game to complement their passing game. That will help as the season progresses, and Sunday will be the ultimate test in Buffalo.Â
I’m not trying to put a damper on how the season has started, but the Dolphins haven’t done anything. The Bills have been the champs in our division for the last three years, and until someone beats them, they are still the champs of the AFC East. People will say we were close last year and should have beaten them in the playoff game. Okay, fine, but I don’t want to hang with the Bills. I want to see this team beat them and dethrone them. Otherwise, the Dolphins will have to battle it out for a wild card again. The goal is to win the division and win playoff games. That starts Sunday in Buffalo. If they can beat the Bills in Buffalo for the first time since 2016, then I’ll start to come around, but talk is cheap, and this team must prove they are better.Â
So true! Let’s do this Phins! It all starts and ends with the offensive line!
Keep J Allen on the bench!
In the investment industry, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”. That phrase exists for a very important reason: to remind people who have a tendency to assume that what happens in the past will likely happen again, that in fact it often won’t happen in the future. In fact, the past fails to play out again in the future a lot more often than these people usually realize. This is the #1 reason why so many pundits get their predictions wrong almost as often as they get them right, and sometimes their record is even worse.
There’s a scene from the movie, The Greatest Game Ever Played, that exemplifies this concept perfectly. The hero is teeing off on a par 3 hole that he double-bogied the day before. One of the onlookers sagely says, “This is where he fell apart yesterday.” Our hero then puts his tee shot six inches from the cup. The onlooker’s companion replies, “That was yesterday.”