This week, it’s a quick turnaround as the Dolphins ship up to The Meadowlands for an AFC East battle with the N.Y. Jets. Last week, I wrongly predicted that the Fins would blow out the Jets and easily cover the 12-point spread at home.  That dropped my record to 7-3 this year on Fins predictions.   This week’s tale of the tape seems to heavily favor the Fins once again.

TEAM STATS

  • Total Offense – yards per game. Fins 1st at 434 / Jets 30th at 270.
  • Points per game. Fins 1st at 31 points per game /Jets 30th at 175 points per game.
  • Passing yards per game. Fins 1st at 291 /Jets 30th at 171.
  • Rushing yards per game. Fins 2nd at 143 /Jets 23rd at 100.
  • Total Defense – yards per game. Fins 12th at 320 /Jets 11th at 316.
  • Points allowed per game. Jets 11th at 20 points allowed /Fins 23rd at 23 points per game.
  • Passing yards allowed per game. Jets 5th at 179 /Fins 14th at 221.
  • Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 10th at 99 /Jets 30th at 138.
  • Turnover Margin. Fins 22nd at -4 /Jets 17th at -2.
  • Sacks per game. Fins 8th at1 /Jets 17th at 2.6.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

  • Tua is 2nd in passing yards per game, 2nd in passing TDs, and 2nd in passer rating. The Jets are turning to backup QB Tim Boyle this week (no ratings).
  • Tyreek Hill is ranked 1st in reception yards, 2nd in receptions, and 1st in TDs.  Jets’ top receiver, Garrett Wilson, is 16th in receptions, 21st in yards, and tied for 34th in TDs.
  • Raheem Mostert is 8th in rushing yards per game and 1st in rushing TDs. Jets’ running back Breece Hall is 25th in rushing yards and tied for 37th in TDs.
  • Miami’s leader, Bradley Chubb, is 23rd with six sacks. Jets’ defensive lineman Bryce Huff is 41st with 5.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Fins offense vs. Jets defense.   This is actually a good match-up and will likely determine the outcome of the game.  The Fins are ranked 1st or 2nd in every offensive category, while the Jets are ranked 11th in points and yards given up.  However, the Jets are only ranked 30th in rushing defense.  The Fins may be able to exploit this advantage, and if they win this battle, you have to like their chances.  The availability of RB De’Von Achane is uncertain, and the Fins have placed Savon Ahmed on IR. This could be a Jeff Wilson week. The Fins still own the speed advantage.  Slight Advantage Fins.

Fins defense vs. Jets offense.  Without any shadow of a doubt, Jalen Ramsey has transformed this defense.  In the last two games, it was the defense that led this team while the offense scuffled.  This week, they face another sub-par offense as the Jets have not been able to score.  It’s gotten so bad that they have benched starting QB Zac Wilson in favor of backup Tim Boyle, as noted above.  I think the Fins have a clear advantage here.  Advantage Fins.

Kicking game.  The Dolphins may have the worst special teams kicking unit in the league.  Seems we repeat this every week.  Last week, Jason Sanders missed another field goal, and Josh Bailey had another shanked punt.  Jets’ kicker Greg Zeurlein is 22 for 23 in field goals, made good for 96% and 2nd in the league.  Fins kicker Jason Sanders has hit 9-12 field goals for 75%, which is an abysmal 32nd in the league.  Ex-Fins punter Thomas Morestead is averaging 49.0 gross yards per punt and 42.0 net yards, good for 8th and 16th in the league.  Fins’ punter Jake Bailey is 24th and 12th at 45.7 and 42.3.  Advantage Jets.

Intangibles.  Both teams face a short week on a first-ever Black Friday game. The Fins will be traveling during Thanksgiving, while the Jets will eat in the comfort of their own homes.  The weather will be cold but not too cold.  The Fins are heavy double-digit road favorites which tends to favor the home teams.  Advantage Jets.

This is the ultimate trap game for Miami.  A short week, a weaker opponent, a traveling holiday, and facing a team with new hopes with a new albeit unproven QB.  I got fooled last week.  I’m not going to be fooled again.  This game will be closer than the experts think.  Fins win 20-17.