The legal tampering period for free agency starts today. Teams can talk to players who are unsigned free agents. Teams with money to spend will most likely spend a lot. The Miami Dolphins will most likely be quiet for the most part as they are still trying to clear more than $20 million to get to the cap. The Dolphins are also expected to lose two of their best young players, who were drafted high in this rebuilding process: defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and offensive lineman Robert Hunt. Both players are expected to get big contracts, and with the Dolphins cap situation, they won’t be able to sign them unless they make some drastic moves to create more money under the cap. 

The question I have as a fan is, will the Dolphins be able to sign some of their other young cornerstone players, whose contracts will be expiring in the next couple of years? I know that’s down the road, but it is a fair question. When general manager Chris Grier started this rebuilding process, he loaded up with draft picks and had the most of anyone in 2020 and 2021. However, Grier traded away some high draft picks for talented players, such as Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, and Bradley Chubb. He also gave each big contract or, in the case of Ramsey, inherited his contract. Grier also gave a big contract to left tackle Terron Armstead and cornerback Byron Jones. He also gave cornerback Xavien Howard a big contract and renegotiated it after two years. The problem is that the bill is due for some of their young players, such as Wilkins and Hunt, and it’s only getting started. 

The Dolphins are now at a stage where they are up against the cap, and on top of that, the last two years have had the fewest draft picks of anyone in the NFL. They haven’t brought in younger players to contribute through the draft, so the Dolphins are stuck in some ways. They will lose players in free agency and also lose depth on their roster. The Dolphins are going to have to start gaining more draft picks and develop younger players on cheap contracts to help. 

The problem I see coming for the Dolphins is that players such as Jevon Holland, Jalen Phillips, and Jaylen Waddle all have one year left on their rookie deal. Yes, Phillips and Waddle have 5th-year options that the Dolphins can trigger, but it’s kicking the can down the road, and players’ salaries are only going to go up. The Dolphins must try to get ahead of this problem if they can. The Dolphins also may have to make some tougher business decisions, such as trading one of their best young players for high draft picks, which might be best in certain cases if they can get the right offer. That’s what happened with Larmey Tunsil 5 years ago, but circumstances were different as the Dolphins were starting the rebuilding process. The Kansas City Chiefs did that a couple of years ago with Hill, when he had one year left on his contract, and traded him to the Dolphins for five draft picks to rebuild their roster. The Chiefs lost their explosive plays on offense, but they used those picks to rebuild their defense and other areas. 

The other problem for the Dolphins is what to do with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He is entering the last year of his rookie contract, the 5th year option. There seems to be momentum with the Dolphins signing Tagovailoa to a new deal. I have said they should let him play it out and see what happens. If the Dolphins give him a new contract, yes, it would create cap space this year, but it would also put you in a cap crunch for a few years to come, and that’s where things will get tricky and why the Dolphins need to get more draft picks to try offset some other their potential losses. 

The Chiefs went through a couple of lean years against the cap after giving their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, a big contract, but they made some tough, smart decisions, like trading Hill and finding younger players in the draft. The Buffalo Bills are going to start going through those lean years with Josh Allen’s contract as they are starting to release players.  

The Dolphins haven’t even paid their quarterback and are in a cap crunch, so it’s scary to think about this team beyond this year if they give Tagovailoa a new contract and don’t get more draft picks. It calls into question Grier’s rebuild plan.  

I’d say the first mistake he made was when he gave Jones that big contract in 2020, which made him the highest-paid defensive back at the time. First, he wasn’t worth the contract as he wasn’t a good player. Second, it rattled Howard as he wanted a new deal after that when he got one before; more on him in a minute. The Dolphins cut Jones last year but are still on the hook for him this year with $10 million in dead money. 

Grier then negotiated Howard’s contract after 2021 after giving him a new deal before. I think that was a mistake because he was getting older. Plus, in the last couple of years, Howard’s play has declined. If I was Grier, I would have played hardball, and he could have gotten good value in a trade when the Dolphins got off to a bad start in 2021 at 1-7. There was talk the Baltimore Ravens were willing to offer a 1st round pick. The Dolphins should have taken the deal when they could have because Howard reached his peak and was only going downhill. Now, the Dolphins have money tied up against the cap this year and next year. 

I can’t complain about Grier going all in. As a fan, you want your GM to make aggressive moves when they present themselves, but in the process, Grier went with the f-them picks mentality, and the Dolphins have had no young talent in the last two years. Grier also restructured contracts and pushed them into this year, which is one reason the cap is what it is, even with the rise of the salary cap. One way the Dolphins can clear cap space is by restructuring some of their big contracts, such as Hill, Chubb, and Ramsey, but while it creates cap space, it also pushes money into next year, and it’s not smart. It’s why the New Orleans Saints are always tens of millions over the cap year after year. If the Dolphins do this, then they put themselves at risk for possibly not being able to sign players like Holland, Phillips, and Waddle, who are coming into their prime years.  

Yes, the Dolphins won 11 games last year and have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in two decades, but they have nothing to show for it. Right now, I’m concerned about this team moving forward and whether they will be able to keep their younger players because of the go-all-in and f-them-picks mentality. Grier needs to pump the breaks on big moves and look to get more picks. He could also be forced to make tough decisions, like trading a player whose contract is coming up, like Holland. It’s also possible if the Dolphins take a step back, owner Stephen Ross might clean house, and a new GM would have to inherit this potential mess. 

The rebuild process was supposed to bring in younger talent and keep them for sustainable winning, but Grier got away from that, and now the Dolphins could be paying the price starting this year.Â