Tua Tagovailoa is entering the last year of his rookie contract in 2024. He’s watched as his peers from the 2020 draft class—Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow—receive new contracts from the teams that drafted them. So, it’s no surprise that Tagovailoa is ready to join them and get a new contract.

Unfortunately for Tua, the negotiations on a new deal have not gone well to this point.

Tua Tagovailoa said during OTAs, “I’ll tell you one thing: the market is the market.” Implying the obvious, he wants to be paid according to his peers and the fair market value.

When you start to unpack the verbiage in Jeff Darlington’s quote from Tuesday, this is a bit of an ironic choice of words.

“The Dolphins are not offering the contract that is the market value, We’re not to a panic point just yet. I just think my optimism earlier has to be slightly scaled back at this point… Based on my conversations, they are not in the Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence ballpark.”

These conversations seem to be coming from inside the Tagovailoa camp for this to now be made public.

This market value, which Tua’s camp is referring to, would align with the others previously mentioned and Jared Goff, who recently signed a new four-year/212 million-dollar deal with the Lions. Herbert recently got five years/262.5 million with the Chargers. Burrow got five years/275 million with the Bengals, and Hurts got five years/255 million with the Eagles.

So, where do we go from here? Tua wants the market value, and the Miami Dolphins are not offering it.

Are the Dolphins hesitant to give Tua a new deal because of his injury history? It’s understandable; his hip injury was unusual, but I believe the head injuries are possibly their biggest concern.

Or perhaps the Dolphins are hung up on some of Tua’s limitations. He has struggled against teams with winning records, he has struggled in bad weather, and he wasn’t as sharp late in the 2023 season as they may have hoped.

There are many projected outcomes to all of this. Both sides are dug in, and now, no deal is close.

If Tua and the team cannot reach a deal before the season starts, does Tua hold out?

Maybe he should; he has a pretty good case to make. The Dolphins are a playoff team with him… without him, I’m not so sure.

Is the Dolphins’ brain trust okay with letting Mike White go into the season opener as the starter? Or, god forbid, go multiple games into the season with him as the starter?

This would put a severe damper on the expectations of the upcoming season. The Dolphins have an eye on a deep playoff run this year, can they afford to let this play out, if Tua does indeed hold-out?

Tua was the 2023 NFL passing leader, after all. On top of all that, just up the road in Jacksonville last week, Trevor Lawrence got paid like a franchise quarterback. Although Trevor has had some flashes of potential, Tua has undeniably been the better NFL quarterback. Lawrence signed a five-year extension worth 275 million.

Should Tua play on the final year of his rookie deal, risking injury and generational wealth?

The second contract for an NFL starting quarterback is when the big payday comes. Will he risk that contract, with his previous history of serious injuries?

Does Tua ask to be traded? An outcome no one could have imagined a few months ago, but here we are.

It’s a valid concern. I’m sure there is at least one team willing to pay Tua his market value. What do the Dolphins do if a team like the Raiders offers multiple picks for Tua’s services? Would the Dolphins seriously consider it?

My most ominous question is, does Tua have a breaking point?

Someone in the Dolphins organization has had a wandering eye for a different quarterback for years. And it all started before Tua was even drafted. Reports were abundant before the 2020 NFL draft that the Dolphins were desperately trying to trade up for Joe Burrow.

Ian Rapoport reported 2022 that the Dolphins were willing to give up all three-round selections the team possessed in the 2020 draft to move up for Joe Burrow.

Tua also had a tumultuous relationship with head coach Brian Flores, which has been well publicized.

Then, in Tua’s second season, someone inside the Dolphins organization had the great idea of asking the Houston Texans for permission to contact Deshaun Watson, at the height of his off-field allegations, to discuss the potential of him joining the team via trade.

After all, the Dolphins then tampered with Tom Brady on a yacht, losing a first-round draft pick, and discussed his potential interest in joining the Dolphins.

Is there a point where Tua says, enough is enough? Are the Dolphins reaching the point of no return with their relationship with Tua Tagovailoa?

The mental toughness and professionalism Tua has shown over these four years with the Dolphins do not get enough credit. Tua has said he “keeps receipts.” Is he talking about just the media, or is he talking about the organization as well?

One thing is for sure: there are more questions than answers regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s and the Miami Dolphins’ future.

 

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